Bayer AG
German conglomerate selling prescription drugs, crop chemicals, and seeds worldwide.
On the record
Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings report, first real test of whether Nubeqa and Kerendia growth offsets Xarelto and Eylea declines
The call
Bayer is racing new drugs like Nubeqa and Kerendia against patent losses on Xarelto and Eylea, with the Roundup litigation risk now largely settled.
Bayer makes and sells prescription medicines globally, from blood thinners to eye treatments. It is hard to copy quickly because of government approvals, patents, and established doctor relationships, though AI might speed up drug discovery later. The real question is whether its newer drugs like Nubeqa and Kerendia grow fast enough to make up for older blockbuster drugs losing patent protection and sales falling by one-third or more starting in 2026.
Why
01
AI pressure: AI-driven drug discovery labs (e.g. Isomorphic Labs, generative chemistry platforms). AI speeds up rivals' pipeline design, but Bayer still needs patents and regulatory approval to sell anything, so AI has not displaced sales yet. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Generic and biosimilar makers (Teva, Sandoz, Samsung Bioepis, Amgen) entering after Xarelto and Eylea patent expiry. Xarelto sales are falling 35-40% and Eylea 20-25% in 2026 as copies enter the market Bayer used to own alone. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. Patents and regulatory exclusivity on Nubeqa and Kerendia, plus distribution reach in pharma and agriculture that new entrants cannot copy quickly.
What would change this call
Q2 2026 earnings (early August) show pharma segment growth versus decline. Tests whether Nubeqa and Kerendia growth offsets Xarelto and Eylea patent-cliff losses.
FDA decision on Kerendia T1D-CKD label expansion within about six months of May 2026. Approval would confirm a new growth engine is materializing beyond legacy drugs.
Roundup settlement fund payout updates versus the roughly $7 billion estimate. A material overrun would reopen the litigation tail risk investors thought was closed.
FDA decision on Kerendia T1D-CKD label expansion within about six months of May 2026. Approval would confirm a new growth engine is materializing beyond legacy drugs.
Roundup settlement fund payout updates versus the roughly $7 billion estimate. A material overrun would reopen the litigation tail risk investors thought was closed.
Key numbers
- FY2025 group revenue: 45.6 billion euros, down 2.2%
- Nubeqa sales grew 57% to 2.4 billion euros in 2025
- Kerendia sales grew 79% to 829 million euros in 2025
Named risks
- Xarelto and Eylea patent cliffs cutting 2026 pharma revenue by up to 40 percent.
- Roundup settlement fund near $7 billion could overrun despite June 2026 Supreme Court win.
- Net financial debt of €32.5 billion as of March 2026 limits flexibility.
- Ongoing DSO restructuring layoffs, roughly 12,000 to 13,500 cumulative by late 2025.
- War-related macro and currency headwinds flagged in Bayer's own 2026 outlook.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Generic and biosimilar makers | losing to | Xarelto sales projected down 35 to 40 percent, Eylea down 20 to 25 percent in 2026 |
| Syngenta, Corteva, BASF | contesting | Bayer remains one of a small oligopoly of crop science and agrochemical leaders as of 2026 |
| Novartis, Sanofi, Merck, Pfizer | contesting | Bayer pharma revenue near €17.8 billion in 2025 trails these larger rivals |
| Johnson & Johnson | losing to | Co-marketed Xarelto facing 35 to 40 percent 2026 sales decline from loss of exclusivity |
Questions people ask
- Is Bayer profitable in 2026?
- Yes. Q1 2026 net income hit €2.763 billion versus €1.299 billion a year earlier, up 112.7%, aided by a litigation settlement gain. Bayer guides FY2026 core EPS of €4.10 to €4.60 and sales of €45 to 47 billion, as of March 2026.
- Who is Bayer's biggest competitor?
- Bayer competes with Syngenta, Corteva and BASF in crop science, and Novartis, Sanofi, Merck and J&J in pharma. Its 2025 pharma revenue of roughly €17.8 billion is far smaller than these bigger rivals, making Bayer a mid-tier pharma player.
- Is Bayer doing mass layoffs in 2026?
- Headcount fell to 87,757 FTEs by March 31, 2026, down 3.4% from 90,885 a year prior. Cumulative cuts under the Dynamic Shared Ownership restructuring reached roughly 12,000 to 13,500 by late 2025, though management said in November 2025 the pace should turn incremental.
- Did Bayer win the Roundup lawsuit?
- Yes. On June 25, 2026 the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 7-2 in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell that FIFRA preempts state-law failure-to-warn claims, a decision expected to block or curtail most of the roughly 100,000-plus pending Roundup lawsuits against Bayer.
- Could AI replace Bayer's drug discovery teams?
- AI speeds Bayer's discovery work through deals like Cradle (January 2026) and Iambic Therapeutics (June 2026), but the company's real moat is FDA and EPA approvals, proprietary compound libraries, and litigation-tested legal frameworks, none of which AI models can substitute for.
- Is Bayer a safe company to join right now?
- Bayer is still cutting headcount, down to 87,757 FTEs by March 2026 from 90,885 a year earlier under its DSO restructuring, but the CEO signaled incremental cuts going forward in November 2025, and a June 2026 Supreme Court win sharply reduced Roundup litigation risk.
Timeline
- 2026-06-25US Supreme Court rules 7-2 that FIFRA preempts Roundup failure-to-warn claims
- 2026-05-20FDA grants Priority Review for Kerendia label expansion into T1D-CKD
- 2026-05-12Bayer reports Q1 2026 net income of €2.763 billion, up 112.7% y/y
- 2026-03-05Bayer reports FY2025 revenue of €45.6 billion, down 2.2% y/y
- 2026-01-14Bayer presents at JPM Healthcare Conference, cites $1.7B from new launches
- 2026-01-07Bayer signs AI antibody discovery deal with Cradle
- 2025-11-14Cumulative Bayer layoffs reach roughly 12,000 to 13,500 since 2024
- 2023-08-22Bayer details CropKey platform screening 2.6 million compound library
Revision history
24 July 2026
First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Bayer Reports 2025 Revenue Dropping 2.2% to EUR 45.6b (2026-03-05)
- Bayer Quarterly Statement as of March 31, 2026 (2026-05-12)
- Corporate Outlook (2026)
- Bayer's pharma division sees one more year of declining sales (2026-03-04)
- Zacks (2026-05-20)
- JP Morgan 2026: Bayer's Rejuvenated Portfolio (2026-01-14)
- gurufocus.com
- Bayer Stock Jumps on Nubeqa Outlook (2026-01-15)
- Bayer Quarterly Statement Q1 2026 (2026-05-12)
- Bayer Layoffs Continued in Q3 (2025-11-14)
- Supreme Court ruling blocks thousands of lawsuits (2026-06-25)
- Setting new Benchmarks (2023-08-22)