Is BBVA profitable in 2026?

Yes. BBVA posted record 2025 net attributable profit of 10.5B euros, up 4.5% year over year, and followed with Q1 2026 profit of 2.99B euros, up 10.8% YoY, with ROTE of 21.7% as of March 31, 2026.

Is BBVA planning layoffs?

No mass layoffs are evident. Group headcount rose to 127,174 employees at end 2025, up 1.0% from 2024's 125,916, continuing multi-year growth; some smaller units like BBVA USA saw modest declines to 3,529 employees.

Could AI replace BBVA?

No. AI tools like ChatGPT Enterprise and 20,000+ internal GPTs (deployed January 2026) augment BBVA's workforce, but its banking license, ECB supervision, 859B euro asset base and 81 million customer relationships as of December 31, 2025 cannot be replicated by AI models.

Who is BBVA's biggest competitor?

Banco Santander is BBVA's larger domestic rival with a market cap around 177.7B euros versus BBVA's roughly 126B euros as of mid 2026. BBVA also tried to acquire Banco Sabadell, but that hostile bid lapsed in October 2025 with only 25.5% acceptance.

BBVA is a publicly traded company with no controlling parent. As of March 31, 2026 it had 660,942 shareholders, 68.5% institutional and 35.5% retail, across 5,634 million shares outstanding, listed on Madrid, New York and Mexican exchanges.

Did BBVA succeed in acquiring Banco Sabadell?

No. BBVA's roughly 17B euro hostile takeover bid for Banco Sabadell, launched in May 2024, lapsed in October 2025 after only 25.5% of Sabadell's voting rights accepted, below the required minimum threshold.

Banks and financial groups · Spain

BBVA

bbva.com ↗

Spanish multinational bank with 81M customers and €859B in assets across 25+ countries.

Hard to displace

Assessed 22 July 2026 · Evidence as of 22 July 2026

Strong structural protection; the business model survives ai pressure.

On the recordSince 22 July 2026 · Checkable from 2026-2027 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Villarejo espionage trial verdict, prosecutors seek €181.8M fine on BBVA plus jail for former chairman

The call

BBVA sits on a regulated balance sheet and deposit base that AI cannot touch, while its real risks are legal and macro, not technological.

BBVA is a Spanish bank that takes deposits, lends money, and manages finances for 81 million customers across 25+ countries. It is hard to replace because banking requires a government license, billions of dollars in capital, and strict regulatory approval that ChatGPT and other AI companies cannot get. Instead of being threatened by AI, BBVA uses it internally to serve customers better. The one thing that could matter: a trial started in July 2026 over past spying practices, and prosecutors are asking for a large fine and possible jail time for a former leader, which could shake confidence in the bank over the next few years.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. AI chatbots and models cannot hold a banking license, take deposits, or extend regulated credit, so they feed BBVA's tools rather than replace the bank. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: Santander, HSBC, BNP Paribas. Bigger rivals compete for scale and deals, shown by BBVA's failed Sabadell bid, but none can strip BBVA of its license or deposit base. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. A banking license, ECB oversight, and 81M customer relationships that no software company or unlicensed rival can copy.

What would change this call

Villarejo espionage trial verdict, opened July 9 2026, prosecutors seek 181.8M euro fine plus jail for ex-chairman. would show legal or governance damage capable of denting BBVA's regulatory standing.
Garanti BBVA Turkey 2026 profit trajectory toward roughly 1B euro target amid lira/inflation moves. would show whether Turkey macro risk is eroding a major profit contributor.
Any renewed Sabadell or other Spanish bank consolidation move following July 2026 stake sale by David Martinez. would show whether BBVA gains or loses scale relative to Santander and CaixaBank.

Key numbers

2025 net profit €10.5B, up 4.5% (2025-12-31)
Q1 2026 ROTE 21.7% (2026-03-31)
81.2M active customers (2025-12-31)

Named risks

Villarejo espionage trial could yield 181.8M euro fine and governance fallout. Severity: high
Turkey macroeconomic normalization threatens ~1B euro 2026 Garanti profit target. Severity: medium
Execution risk on 22% ROTE target under 2025-2028 plan flagged by equity analysts. Severity: medium
Spanish antitrust probe into mortgage practices involving BBVA. Severity: low
Headcount and figure discrepancies across sources complicate workforce transparency. Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Banco Santander	losing to	Santander market cap ~177.7B euros vs BBVA's ~126B euros as of mid 2026
Banco Sabadell	contesting	BBVA's takeover bid lapsed Oct 17, 2025 at 25.5% acceptance; consolidation speculation continued into July 2026
CaixaBank	contesting	CaixaBank ~88.2B euro market cap, largest domestic branch network after La Caixa-Bankia merger
HSBC, BNP Paribas	losing to	Global scale BBVA sought via failed Sabadell bid remains unmatched as of Oct 2025
Raiffeisen Bank International	contesting	Acquired Garanti BBVA Romania for ~591M euros, agreed March 28, 2026, as BBVA retreats from that market

Questions people ask

Is BBVA profitable in 2026?: Yes. BBVA posted record 2025 net attributable profit of 10.5B euros, up 4.5% year over year, and followed with Q1 2026 profit of 2.99B euros, up 10.8% YoY, with ROTE of 21.7% as of March 31, 2026.
Is BBVA planning layoffs?: No mass layoffs are evident. Group headcount rose to 127,174 employees at end 2025, up 1.0% from 2024's 125,916, continuing multi-year growth; some smaller units like BBVA USA saw modest declines to 3,529 employees.
Could AI replace BBVA?: No. AI tools like ChatGPT Enterprise and 20,000+ internal GPTs (deployed January 2026) augment BBVA's workforce, but its banking license, ECB supervision, 859B euro asset base and 81 million customer relationships as of December 31, 2025 cannot be replicated by AI models.
Who is BBVA's biggest competitor?: Banco Santander is BBVA's larger domestic rival with a market cap around 177.7B euros versus BBVA's roughly 126B euros as of mid 2026. BBVA also tried to acquire Banco Sabadell, but that hostile bid lapsed in October 2025 with only 25.5% acceptance.
Who owns BBVA?: BBVA is a publicly traded company with no controlling parent. As of March 31, 2026 it had 660,942 shareholders, 68.5% institutional and 35.5% retail, across 5,634 million shares outstanding, listed on Madrid, New York and Mexican exchanges.
Did BBVA succeed in acquiring Banco Sabadell?: No. BBVA's roughly 17B euro hostile takeover bid for Banco Sabadell, launched in May 2024, lapsed in October 2025 after only 25.5% of Sabadell's voting rights accepted, below the required minimum threshold.

Timeline

2026-07-09Villarejo espionage trial opens; prosecutors seek 181.8M euro fine on BBVA entity
2026-05-28BBVA creates new global AI Transformation area led by Antonio Bravo
2026-04-30Q1 2026 results: 2.99B euro profit, up 10.8% YoY, ROTE 21.7%, CET1 12.83%
2026-03-28Raiffeisen agrees to buy Garanti BBVA Romania for about 591M euros
2026-01-16BBVA deploys ChatGPT Enterprise company wide, first European bank to do so
2025-10-17BBVA's Sabadell takeover bid lapses at 25.5% acceptance
2025-10-01BBVA becomes first bank to enable Apple Intelligence card personalization in Spain
2025-06BBVA launches fully digital retail bank in Germany

Revision history

22 July 2026

First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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