Is BHP Group profitable in 2025?

Yes. BHP reported FY2025 (year ended 30 June 2025) underlying attributable profit of $10.2 billion, though this was down 26% year over year on weaker iron ore and coal prices. Revenue for the year was $51.26 billion, down 7.9% from $55.65 billion in FY2024.

Could AI replace BHP's mining workforce?

AI automates specific tasks like haulage and drilling (South Flank fully autonomous since 2023, Spence 100% autonomous trucks since April 2024) but cannot replicate BHP's physical moats: ore-body ownership, mining licenses, 140 years of geological data, and 1,000km of Pilbara rail infrastructure.

Who is BHP's biggest competitor?

Rio Tinto is BHP's closest scale peer. As of 14 July 2026, Rio Tinto and Glencore resurfaced merger talks valued at roughly $260 billion; if completed, it would make the combined entity larger than BHP by market cap, though talks had earlier collapsed in February 2026.

BHP is a fully public company with no controlling parent, listed primarily on the ASX with secondary listings on NYSE, LSE-OTC and JSE; it gave up its London primary listing in January 2022 to unify as a single ASX-listed entity.

Did BHP acquire Anglo American?

No. BHP made a roughly £38.6 billion ($49.3 billion) bid for Anglo American in 2024 but dropped it on 30 May 2024. It revisited talks in November 2025 but confirmed on 23 November 2025 it was no longer considering a combination; Anglo American later agreed to merge with Teck Resources instead.

Is BHP cutting jobs due to automation?

Headcount trends are mixed. Revelio Labs estimated roughly 77,315 employees worldwide as of December 2025, down 1.0% year over year, with job postings down 10.8% in 2025, while BHP's own reported direct employee count rose 1.38% to 40,648 as of 30 June 2025.

Manufacturing companies · Australia

BHP Group

bhp.com ↗

BHP mines iron ore, copper, and other commodities globally as the world's largest miner by value.

Hard to displace

Assessed 20 July 2026 · Evidence as of 20 July 2026

Strong structural protection; the business model survives ai pressure.

On the recordSince 20 July 2026 · Checkable from 18 August 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: FY2026 full year results release

The call

BHP's rock and rail can't be copied by software or a rival buyer; the real risks are courtroom bills from Brazil and what commodity prices do next.

BHP digs up iron ore, copper, and other metals from mines it owns in Australia, Peru, and other countries. It is hard to replace because it controls the actual ore deposits (which take decades to find and develop), holds government mining licenses, owns a 1,000-kilometer railroad and automated port in Australia, and has 140 years of data about where valuable ore sits underground. A rival miner like Rio Tinto might grow as large through a merger, but cannot build BHP's specific mines or infrastructure in any realistic timeframe. The one big risk to watch is if Brazil sues BHP for massive damages over an old dam failure, or if a competing miner like Rio Tinto merges with another company and shifts the power balance in the industry.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. AI runs BHP's autonomous trucks and predictive maintenance at Pilbara, it helps dig ore, it can't replace the ore body itself. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: Rio Tinto (potential Glencore merger). A completed Rio-Glencore deal near $260bn would make Rio bigger than BHP by scale, but it's a bigger rival, not a company killer. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. BHP owns the actual ore bodies, rail lines, and ports; nobody can dig a new Pilbara or build a rival 1,000km rail network fast.

What would change this call

Rio Tinto-Glencore merger completes at roughly $260bn. Would make Rio the largest miner by scale, pressuring BHP's leadership position.
Brazil Fundao dam damages trial produces a final award figure. Shows whether liability stays near current estimates or blows out much larger.
Brandon Craig announces a major acquisition or copper deal as new CEO. Indicates BHP's M&A response strategy under commodity cycle pressure.

Key numbers

FY2025 revenue $51.26bn, down 7.9% (2025-06-30)
FY2025 underlying profit $10.2bn, down 26% (2025-06-30)
FY2025 copper output up 8%, Escondida 17-year high (2025-06-30)

Named risks

Uncapped Brazil Fundao dam damages trial following confirmed liability and denied appeal. Severity: high
Rio Tinto-Glencore merger (approx $260bn, resurfaced July 2026) could create a larger rival. Severity: medium
Industrial action at Pilbara operations, including July 2026 Port Hedland strike over wages. Severity: medium
Commodity price volatility, iron ore price fell 19% in FY2025 while copper rose 7%. Severity: medium
New CEO Brandon Craig's untested M&A strategy amid cycle pressure and consolidation wave. Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Rio Tinto	gaining on	Rio-Glencore merger talks at approx $260bn resurfaced 2026-07-14, would leapfrog BHP as largest miner
Anglo American / Teck	losing to	BHP dropped two acquisition attempts (2024-05, 2025-11); Anglo merged with Teck instead
Glencore	contesting	Analysts flagged BHP as potential interloper bidder for Glencore amid Rio talks, Jan 2026, but BHP did not act
Vale S.A.	contesting	Co-defendant with BHP in Samarco/Brazil dam litigation, liability confirmed Nov 2025

Questions people ask

Is BHP Group profitable in 2025?: Yes. BHP reported FY2025 (year ended 30 June 2025) underlying attributable profit of $10.2 billion, though this was down 26% year over year on weaker iron ore and coal prices. Revenue for the year was $51.26 billion, down 7.9% from $55.65 billion in FY2024.
Could AI replace BHP's mining workforce?: AI automates specific tasks like haulage and drilling (South Flank fully autonomous since 2023, Spence 100% autonomous trucks since April 2024) but cannot replicate BHP's physical moats: ore-body ownership, mining licenses, 140 years of geological data, and 1,000km of Pilbara rail infrastructure.
Who is BHP's biggest competitor?: Rio Tinto is BHP's closest scale peer. As of 14 July 2026, Rio Tinto and Glencore resurfaced merger talks valued at roughly $260 billion; if completed, it would make the combined entity larger than BHP by market cap, though talks had earlier collapsed in February 2026.
Who owns BHP Group?: BHP is a fully public company with no controlling parent, listed primarily on the ASX with secondary listings on NYSE, LSE-OTC and JSE; it gave up its London primary listing in January 2022 to unify as a single ASX-listed entity.
Did BHP acquire Anglo American?: No. BHP made a roughly £38.6 billion ($49.3 billion) bid for Anglo American in 2024 but dropped it on 30 May 2024. It revisited talks in November 2025 but confirmed on 23 November 2025 it was no longer considering a combination; Anglo American later agreed to merge with Teck Resources instead.
Is BHP cutting jobs due to automation?: Headcount trends are mixed. Revelio Labs estimated roughly 77,315 employees worldwide as of December 2025, down 1.0% year over year, with job postings down 10.8% in 2025, while BHP's own reported direct employee count rose 1.38% to 40,648 as of 30 June 2025.

Timeline

2026-07-168-hour Port Hedland strike over wage talks, up to $50m lost revenue
2026-07-14Rio Tinto-Glencore merger talks resurface at roughly $260 billion
2026-07-01Brandon Craig becomes BHP CEO, succeeding Mike Henry
2026-05-06Court of Appeal denies BHP's appeal in Brazil Fundao dam case
2026-04-02BHP completes divestment of Carajas
2026-03-18BHP announces Brandon Craig to succeed Mike Henry as CEO
2026-01-19BHP ordered to pay 90% of claimants' Stage 1 costs plus L43m in dam case
2025-11-30England High Court finds BHP liable in Municipio de Mariana v BHP
2025-11-23BHP confirms it is no longer considering combining with Anglo American
2024-05-30BHP drops roughly $49.3bn bid for Anglo American

Revision history

20 July 2026

First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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