Is BigBear.ai profitable in 2026?

No. FY2025 revenue was $127.7M, down 19% from FY2024's $158.2M, and Q4 2025 revenue fell 38% YoY to $27.3M on lower Army program volume, per company results released 2026-03-02. Q1 2026 margins improved but revenue was still roughly flat YoY at $34.4M.

Is BigBear.ai losing to Palantir?

BigBear.ai is contesting, not clearly losing yet, but scale gap is stark: Palantir posted $1.4B revenue in Q4 2025 with AIP growing about 70% YoY, versus BigBear.ai's $27.3M same-quarter revenue, per a 2026-03-18 Yahoo Finance comparison.

Could AI replace BigBear.ai?

Not easily for its niche work. Security clearances, air-gapped deployment, and contract vehicles like the February 2026 USCYBERCOM TACTICALCRUISER award are hard for pure AI-model vendors to replicate, but the same air-gapped moat is also held by Palantir, so protection is against raw LLM substitution, not competitors.

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is a public company on NYSE under ticker BBAI, formed via a December 2021 SPAC merger with GigCapital4, Inc. combining NuWave Solutions and PCI Strategic Management. It has no majority private owner as of 2026.

Is BigBear.ai facing lawsuits?

Yes. Priewe v. BigBear.ai Holdings (E.D. Va., Case No. 1:25-cv-00623) is a pending securities class action over 2022-2024 financial restatements; defendants filed a motion to dismiss on 2025-09-22 that remained unresolved as of mid-2026.

Who is BigBear.ai's biggest competitor?

Palantir Technologies is the most-cited comparator given its dominance in decision-intelligence AI for defense, but Leidos, Booz Allen Hamilton, and CACI International are also named as larger, profitable rivals competing for the same government AI contracts as of 2026.

AI companies and labs · United States

BigBear.ai

bigbear.ai ↗

AI-driven analytics and computer vision for defense, intelligence, and government agencies.

Protection under test

Assessed 20 July 2026 · Evidence as of 20 July 2026

Something worth protecting exists and is being tested right now.

On the recordSince 20 July 2026 · Checkable from August 10, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings report, tests whether FY2026 guidance of $135-165M revenue actually materializes

The call

BigBear.ai holds real classified-deployment footholds but sits at a fraction of Palantir's scale while Army revenue concentration and unresolved securities litigation weigh on the stock.

BigBear.ai builds artificial intelligence software for the U.S. military that can work on classified, disconnected computer networks, along with tools like face-recognition and document-search systems. The company is not easy to replace because it has security clearances and contracts with the Army, but much larger competitors like Palantir, Leidos, and Booz Allen have the exact same advantages and are fifty times bigger. Revenue dropped nearly 20 percent last year and another 38 percent in the most recent quarter, largely because one Army program ended, plus there is an unresolved lawsuit about financial reporting that could force the company to issue more stock and dilute what current shareholders own; the real question is whether the company can grow revenue again starting in mid-2026, or whether the Army contract loss signals a deeper problem.

Why

AI pressure: Palantir AIP. Palantir ships the same air-gapped GenAI to defense customers at $1.4B quarterly scale, dwarfing BigBear.ai's $27.3M. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.

Bigger players: Palantir Technologies, Leidos, Booz Allen, CACI. These firms hold the same clearances and contract vehicles at far larger scale, and Army program volume already shifted away in Q4 2025. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.

What protects it. Existing classified deployments and clearances (veriScan, TrueFace, Ask Sage) create switching costs inside specific Army and DoW workflows.

What would change this call

BigBear.ai's Q2 2026 earnings (Aug 10, 2026) show revenue growth vs. prior year. Would show FY2026 guidance is real and Q4 2025's decline was not a permanent floor.
Ruling on motion to dismiss in Priewe v. BigBear.ai securities case (E.D. Va.). Would show whether the restatement litigation overhang clears or drags into further quarters.
Army awards a large new multi-year AI/analytics contract to Palantir, Leidos, or CACI instead of BigBear.ai. Would show incumbents are displacing BigBear.ai in its core customer base.

Key numbers

FY2025 revenue $127.7M, down 19% YoY (2025-12-31)
Q4 2025 revenue fell 38% YoY to $27.3M (2025-12-31)
Palantir Q4 2025 revenue $1.4B vs BigBear's $27.3M (2025-12-31)

Named risks

Customer concentration in Army programs already caused a 38% Q4 2025 revenue drop. Severity: high
Unresolved securities class action Priewe v. BigBear.ai over 2022-2024 restatements. Severity: medium
Massive scale disadvantage versus Palantir ($1.4B vs $27.3M quarterly revenue) in same category. Severity: high
Integration risk from Ask Sage and CargoSeer acquisitions plus brand phase-out underway in 2026. Severity: medium
Stock down 26-33% YTD as of mid-2026 with high volatility and 52-week range $2.79-$9.39. Severity: medium

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Palantir Technologies	gaining on	Q4 2025 revenue $1.4B and AIP growth ~70% YoY vs BigBear's $27.3M, as of 2025-12-31
Leidos	contesting	Larger diversified defense tech vendor with competing airport biometric AI screening offerings, 2026-06-29
Booz Allen Hamilton	contesting	Larger profitable federal AI/cyber contractor compared directly to BigBear.ai, 2026-04-22
CACI International	contesting	Stable, profitable defense IT integrator cited as alternative to BigBear.ai in analyst coverage

Questions people ask

Is BigBear.ai profitable in 2026?: No. FY2025 revenue was $127.7M, down 19% from FY2024's $158.2M, and Q4 2025 revenue fell 38% YoY to $27.3M on lower Army program volume, per company results released 2026-03-02. Q1 2026 margins improved but revenue was still roughly flat YoY at $34.4M.
Is BigBear.ai losing to Palantir?: BigBear.ai is contesting, not clearly losing yet, but scale gap is stark: Palantir posted $1.4B revenue in Q4 2025 with AIP growing about 70% YoY, versus BigBear.ai's $27.3M same-quarter revenue, per a 2026-03-18 Yahoo Finance comparison.
Could AI replace BigBear.ai?: Not easily for its niche work. Security clearances, air-gapped deployment, and contract vehicles like the February 2026 USCYBERCOM TACTICALCRUISER award are hard for pure AI-model vendors to replicate, but the same air-gapped moat is also held by Palantir, so protection is against raw LLM substitution, not competitors.
Who owns BigBear.ai?: BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is a public company on NYSE under ticker BBAI, formed via a December 2021 SPAC merger with GigCapital4, Inc. combining NuWave Solutions and PCI Strategic Management. It has no majority private owner as of 2026.
Is BigBear.ai facing lawsuits?: Yes. Priewe v. BigBear.ai Holdings (E.D. Va., Case No. 1:25-cv-00623) is a pending securities class action over 2022-2024 financial restatements; defendants filed a motion to dismiss on 2025-09-22 that remained unresolved as of mid-2026.
Who is BigBear.ai's biggest competitor?: Palantir Technologies is the most-cited comparator given its dominance in decision-intelligence AI for defense, but Leidos, Booz Allen Hamilton, and CACI International are also named as larger, profitable rivals competing for the same government AI contracts as of 2026.

Timeline

2026-07-15Launched expanded generative AI platform with air-gapped hardware for Department of War missions
2026-05-05Q1 2026 results: revenue $34.4M, gross margin up to 34.0%, FY2026 guidance reaffirmed at $135M-$165M
2026-03-02Q4 2025 results released: FY2025 revenue $127.7M, Q4 revenue $27.3M down 38% YoY; Ask Sage acquisition announced
2026-02-23Awarded 5-year USCYBERCOM TACTICALCRUISER data analytics contract
2026-01-31Acquired CargoSeer; settled remaining $125M of 2029 convertible notes
2025-12-31Completed Ask Sage acquisition, called largest acquisition in company history
2025-09-22Motion to dismiss filed in Priewe v. BigBear.ai securities class action
2025-03-01Delayed 10-K filing; announced restatement of FY2022-FY2024 financials, stock dropped about 15%
2025-01-15Kevin McAleenan appointed CEO, succeeding Mandy Long

Revision history

20 July 2026

First assessed. Protection under test. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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