Bristol-Myers Squibb
Global pharma giant selling cancer, blood-thinner, and immunology drugs, now leaning on newer launches to replace fading blockbusters.
On the record
Checkpoint: FDA PDUFA decision on iberdomide for multiple myeloma
The call
BMS is racing to grow newer drugs like Cobenfy and Breyanzi fast enough to offset the 2028 patent cliff on Eliquis and Opdivo.
Bristol-Myers Squibb makes medicines sold worldwide, including blood thinner Eliquis and cancer drug Opdivo. It is hard to copy because drugs require FDA approval and years of testing, but Merck already sells a better cancer drug called Keytruda in the same category, and Eliquis will lose patent protection in 2028, meaning cheaper copies will flood the market. The company is betting that newer medicines (especially Cobenfy, a new schizophrenia treatment it bought) will grow fast enough to replace the old ones' sales before 2028 arrives; if they do not, revenue will drop sharply.
Why
01
AI pressure: Isomorphic Labs and other AI-driven drug discovery labs. AI drug design could shrink R&D timelines industry-wide over the next decade, but no AI lab has replaced a marketed BMS drug yet. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Merck's Keytruda. Keytruda already outsells Opdivo in the same PD-1 cancer class, and both lose big patent protection around 2028. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. FDA approval barriers, manufacturing scale, and patent exclusivity on core drugs make direct copying illegal until patents expire.
What would change this call
FDA PDUFA decision on iberdomide by Aug 17, 2026. An approval would show the Growth Portfolio pipeline can deliver on schedule to offset the 2028 patent cliff.
H2 2026 Phase 3 readouts (10+ pending) across multiple drugs. Clean results would support the replacement engine; a second milvexian-scale failure would weaken it.
Cobenfy quarterly sales trajectory through 2026. Strong uptake would confirm a real new-franchise growth driver beyond Eliquis and Opdivo.
H2 2026 Phase 3 readouts (10+ pending) across multiple drugs. Clean results would support the replacement engine; a second milvexian-scale failure would weaken it.
Cobenfy quarterly sales trajectory through 2026. Strong uptake would confirm a real new-franchise growth driver beyond Eliquis and Opdivo.
Key numbers
- FY2025 revenue $48.2B
- Growth Portfolio $26.4B, +17% YoY, 55% of sales
- Eliquis + Opdivo ~51% of revenue, patents expire 2028
Named risks
- Eliquis and Opdivo (~51% of 2025 revenue) lose US patent exclusivity in 2028.
- Generic erosion already crushed Revlimid (-49% in 2025); Pomalyst generics expected 2026.
- Ongoing WARN-filed layoffs and restructuring through 2026 targeting $2B in savings.
- Pipeline setbacks, e.g. milvexian Phase III ACS trial failure in early 2026.
- IRA Medicare price negotiation litigation and mandated price cuts on Eliquis (2026) and Pomalyst (2027).
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Merck | losing to | Keytruda already outperforms Opdivo in PD-1 oncology, as of 2026 competitive analysis |
| AbbVie | losing to | AbbVie's Skyrizi/Rinvoq ahead of BMS's Orencia/Sotyktu in immunology, 2026 |
| Novartis | contesting | Novartis leads radioligand therapy; BMS's RayzeBio deal aims to counter this |
| AstraZeneca | contesting | AstraZeneca rivals BMS in immuno-oncology and radiopharma/ADC space, 2026 |
| Generic manufacturers | losing to | Generics cut Revlimid revenue 49% to $3.0B in 2025; Pomalyst generics expected 2026 |
Questions people ask
- Is Bristol-Myers Squibb profitable in 2026?
- Yes. BMS issued FY2026 guidance of $46.0-47.5 billion revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $6.05-6.35 as of July 20, 2026, and beat Q1 2026 consensus with $11.49 billion in quarterly revenue, up roughly 2.6-3% year over year.
- What happens to Bristol-Myers Squibb when Eliquis and Opdivo lose patent protection?
- Eliquis and Opdivo, roughly 51% of 2025's $48.2 billion revenue, lose US patent exclusivity in 2028. BMS is counting on its Growth Portfolio, $26.4 billion and 55% of revenue in 2025 (+17% YoY), to backfill the gap before then.
- Is Bristol-Myers Squibb laying off workers in 2026?
- Yes. WARN filings show cuts of 247 workers (Jan 21, 2026), 206 (Jan 16, 2026), and 110 (Jan 12, 2026), plus 206 more planned through late 2026, part of a push toward $2 billion in 'strategic productivity' savings and 1,000+ total planned cuts across 2025-2026.
- Could AI replace Bristol-Myers Squibb's drug discovery work?
- No, not the regulatory core. BMS deployed a second NVIDIA DGX SuperPOD on Vera Rubin NVL72 chips (announced July 19-20, 2026), becoming the first life-sciences company on that generation, but FDA approval, trial data, and manufacturing remain legally required and untouchable by AI.
- Who is Bristol-Myers Squibb's biggest competitor?
- Merck is the sharpest rival: its Keytruda already outperforms BMS's Opdivo in the PD-1 oncology space. AbbVie also leads BMS in immunology with Skyrizi and Rinvoq versus Orencia and Sotyktu, per competitive analyses current as of 2026.
- Who owns Bristol-Myers Squibb?
- Bristol-Myers Squibb is publicly traded on the NYSE under ticker BMY with no parent company or controlling shareholder; it's a widely held institutional and retail stock with a market capitalization of roughly $121-124 billion as of mid-July 2026.
Timeline
- 2026-07-20FY2026 guidance issued: revenue $46.0-47.5B, non-GAAP EPS $6.05-6.35
- 2026-07-19Announced second NVIDIA DGX SuperPOD on Vera Rubin NVL72, first life-sciences buyer
- 2026-06-30FDA accepted priority review for Camzyos sNDA in adolescent oHCM
- 2026-05-31Hengrui Pharma partnership signed: ~$600M upfront, up to $15.2B total
- 2026-04-22WARN notice filed for 206 more job cuts in New Jersey
- 2026-03-31Q1 2026 revenue reported at $11.49B, up ~2.6-3% YoY
- 2026-02-28Milvexian Phase III ACS trial failed
- 2026-02-11FY2025 results: Growth Portfolio hits $26.4B, 55% of revenue, +17% YoY
- 2026-01-21WARN notice filed for 247 job cuts
- 2025-09-21BMS announced plan to launch Cobenfy in UK at US list price
Revision history
20 July 2026
First assessed. Protection under test. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- stockanalysis.com
- Panabee (2026-02-11)
- MarketBeat (2026-07-14)
- 247wallst.com (2026-07-13)
- onedayadvisor.com (2026-07-06)
- stockanalysis.com
- ROI-NJ (2026-04-22)
- BMS UK (2025-09-21)
- BMS Investors (2026-07-20)
- BMS (2026-07-10)
- BMS Newsroom (2026-07-19)
- MatrixBCG (2026-03-11)