Is CNH Industrial profitable in 2026?

CNH posted FY2025 net income of $505 million, down sharply from $1,259 million in 2024. Q1 2026 showed an industrial adjusted EBIT loss of $45 million and a $569 million industrial free cash outflow, indicating profitability is currently under pressure heading into Q2 2026 results on August 3, 2026.

Could AI replace CNH Industrial's business?

Unlikely soon. CNH's moat rests on dealer networks, captive financing, 11,000+ patents, and liability certification for heavy iron, not just software. Monarch Tractor, a pure-software autonomy entrant, collapsed and was acquired by Caterpillar in April 2026, showing software alone cannot replace CNH's hardware-plus-service model.

Who is CNH Industrial's biggest competitor?

John Deere is CNH's primary threat, projected at ~$27 billion 2025 ag revenue versus CNH's estimated $12.3 billion, and structurally ahead in precision-ag software via See & Spray and its Operations Center platform, as of a November 2025 S&P Global Market Intelligence estimate.

Is CNH Industrial laying off workers in 2026?

Yes. Headcount fell from 40,220 in 2023 to 34,197 by December 31, 2025, roughly 15% over two years. CNH closed its Burlington, Iowa backhoe-loader plant affecting about 200 workers by Q2 2026, and undertook further layoffs and a dealer-network reorganization in May 2026.

Who owns CNH Industrial?

CNH Industrial is publicly traded on NYSE under ticker CNH but controlled by Exor N.V., the Agnelli family holding company, which held 26.89% equity and 45.10% voting rights as of 2024. Institutional investors like Vanguard and State Street held about 59.88% of shares as of mid-2026.

What is CNH Industrial's stock and market cap in 2026?

As of July 24, 2026, CNH Industrial's market capitalization was approximately $13.3 billion, with analyst consensus rating it 'Hold' and a price target near $12.77, reflecting mixed sentiment amid a cyclical industry downturn and tariff volatility.

Manufacturing companies · Netherlands

CNH Industrial N.V.

cnhindustrial.com ↗

Dutch maker of Case IH and New Holland tractors and CASE construction gear.

Protection under test

Assessed 24 July 2026 · Evidence as of 24 July 2026

Something worth protecting exists and is being tested right now.

On the recordSince 24 July 2026 · Checkable from August 3, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings report, will show if Q1 EBIT loss and cash outflow were one-time or a trend

The call

CNH keeps its factories and dealers running while Deere's software lead and its own margin slide decide whether it stays a strong number two or slips further behind.

CNH Industrial builds tractors, combines, and other heavy farm equipment and sells them through dealer networks. A software-only competitor like Monarch cannot replace CNH because farmers need real machines and someone to fix them, plus financing to buy them, but John Deere is already ahead with better software tools and data systems that help farmers make smarter decisions. If CNH cannot grow its own software and data business fast enough to catch up to Deere, it will become just a hardware maker selling commodity machines at lower profits while Deere pulls away as the premium choice.

Why

AI pressure: Monarch Tractor and other software-only autonomous farming startups. Software-only rivals need iron, dealers, and financing too; Monarch's stumbles show that gap is hard to close fast. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: John Deere (Deere & Company). Deere's See & Spray and JDLink data platforms are live and ahead, pulling precision-ag customers while CNH still builds its catch-up tech. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. Dealer network, captive finance, and liability coverage that pure-tech entrants can't replicate quickly.

What would change this call

CNH's Q2 2026 earnings (August 3, 2026) show industrial EBIT and cash flow. Whether Q1's EBIT loss and cash outflow are cyclical or a structural trend.
CNH's Precision Tech revenue growth rate versus Deere's precision-ag segment growth. Whether CNH is closing or losing ground on the ag-tech gap with Deere.
Any fourth CNH headcount reduction or plant closure announced in 2026. Whether cost cuts are ongoing damage control rather than a one-time reset.

Key numbers

FY2025 revenue $18.10B, down 9% year over year (2025-12-31)
FY2025 net income $505M, down from $1,259M in 2024 (2025-12-31)
Q3 2025 North American ag sales fell 29% year over year (2025-09-30)

Named risks

Structural margin erosion versus Deere's precision-ag and data platform lead. Severity: high
Tariff volatility on agricultural equipment and metals affecting costs and exports. Severity: high
Continued negative industrial free cash flow and EBIT losses into 2026. Severity: high
Ongoing product liability litigation over tractor safety. Severity: medium
Dealer-network reorganization disputes following Case IH/New Holland merger. Severity: medium

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
John Deere	losing to	Deere's precision-ag platform (See & Spray, Operations Center) outpaces CNH's, per July 2026 analysis
John Deere	contesting	Both firms declined in 2025 (Deere -15% to $27B, CNH -12% to $12.3B est., Nov 2025 S&P estimate)
Caterpillar	losing to	Caterpillar acquired Monarch Tractor's assets in April 2026 after CNH wrote down its stake
AGCO Corporation	contesting	AGCO also declined ~16% to $9.8B in 2025 amid shared industry downturn
Kubota Corporation	contesting	Both remain in top-5 oligopoly holding ~63% combined 2025 market share

Questions people ask

Is CNH Industrial profitable in 2026?: CNH posted FY2025 net income of $505 million, down sharply from $1,259 million in 2024. Q1 2026 showed an industrial adjusted EBIT loss of $45 million and a $569 million industrial free cash outflow, indicating profitability is currently under pressure heading into Q2 2026 results on August 3, 2026.
Could AI replace CNH Industrial's business?: Unlikely soon. CNH's moat rests on dealer networks, captive financing, 11,000+ patents, and liability certification for heavy iron, not just software. Monarch Tractor, a pure-software autonomy entrant, collapsed and was acquired by Caterpillar in April 2026, showing software alone cannot replace CNH's hardware-plus-service model.
Who is CNH Industrial's biggest competitor?: John Deere is CNH's primary threat, projected at ~$27 billion 2025 ag revenue versus CNH's estimated $12.3 billion, and structurally ahead in precision-ag software via See & Spray and its Operations Center platform, as of a November 2025 S&P Global Market Intelligence estimate.
Is CNH Industrial laying off workers in 2026?: Yes. Headcount fell from 40,220 in 2023 to 34,197 by December 31, 2025, roughly 15% over two years. CNH closed its Burlington, Iowa backhoe-loader plant affecting about 200 workers by Q2 2026, and undertook further layoffs and a dealer-network reorganization in May 2026.
Who owns CNH Industrial?: CNH Industrial is publicly traded on NYSE under ticker CNH but controlled by Exor N.V., the Agnelli family holding company, which held 26.89% equity and 45.10% voting rights as of 2024. Institutional investors like Vanguard and State Street held about 59.88% of shares as of mid-2026.
What is CNH Industrial's stock and market cap in 2026?: As of July 24, 2026, CNH Industrial's market capitalization was approximately $13.3 billion, with analyst consensus rating it 'Hold' and a price target near $12.77, reflecting mixed sentiment amid a cyclical industry downturn and tariff volatility.

Timeline

2026-07-21Federal appeals court reversed jury verdict against CNH in dismounting-tractor injury lawsuit
2026-06-05CNH reorganization merges Case IH and New Holland dealer-network management amid tariff relief to 15%
2026-04-30CNH closed Burlington, Iowa backhoe-loader plant, affecting ~200 workers
2026-04-15Monarch Tractor's assets acquired by Caterpillar after operational collapse
2026-03-31Q1 2026: industrial adjusted EBIT loss of $45 million, free cash outflow of $569 million
2026-02-17CNH reports FY2025 revenue of $18.10 billion, down 9%, net income $505 million
2026-02-15CNH India resumes US tractor exports with ₹1,800 crore fourth-plant investment
2025-11-11CNH Tech Day at Agritechnica showcases Combine Automation and Corn Header Automation
2025-11-10Q3 2025 net income fell 78% YoY to $676 million amid tariffs and weak North American demand
2025-05-01CNH partners with Starlink for satellite connectivity in precision agriculture

Revision history

24 July 2026

First assessed. Protection under test. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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