Coles Group
Coles is one of Australia's two dominant supermarket chains, running physical grocery stores nationwide.
On the record
Checkpoint: ACCC excessive-pricing enforcement powers take effect and first enforcement signals emerge
The call
Coles sits inside a two-player grocery market the regulator just chose not to dismantle, with no AI-native or global rival yet pulling shoppers away.
Coles Group owns and operates almost 1,900 supermarkets across Australia and sells about A$44 billion worth of groceries and other items each year. It is hard to replace because it has 1,858 physical stores, its own cold-chain network to keep food fresh, relationships with over 8,000 suppliers, and government licenses that took decades to build. Rival Woolworths has a bigger slice (38% versus Coles' 29%), but both companies control the market together, and Australia's competition regulator decided in March 2025 not to force either one to sell stores. The main things to watch are: whether the government's new power to punish excessive pricing (starting July 2026) will squeeze profits, whether Coles actually has 115,000 workers or closer to 96,000 as some data suggests (a sign automation is replacing people in warehouses and back offices), and how large a penalty Coles will pay for misleading customers in its 'Down Down' promotion.
Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI so far trims back-office and warehouse jobs inside Coles rather than pulling shoppers to a rival grocer. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Amazon (Amazon Fresh). Amazon has no committed large-scale physical grocery rollout in Australia, so it is not yet pulling customers from Coles stores. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. 1,858 stores, national cold-chain logistics, and a legally entrenched duopoly with Woolworths that the ACCC declined to break up in March 2025.
What would change this call
ACCC's 'Down Down' misleading pricing penalty is decided, expected H2 2026. A large fine would show regulatory action is materially compressing Coles' margins.
Coles FY26 results (due ~Aug 2026) report actual headcount versus prior 115,000 figure. A big drop toward Revelio's 95,932 estimate would confirm quiet automation-driven job cuts.
First enforcement cases under ACCC's new excessive-pricing powers after 1 July 2026. Early prosecutions would show regulators moving from scrutiny to direct price control.
Coles FY26 results (due ~Aug 2026) report actual headcount versus prior 115,000 figure. A big drop toward Revelio's 95,932 estimate would confirm quiet automation-driven job cuts.
First enforcement cases under ACCC's new excessive-pricing powers after 1 July 2026. Early prosecutions would show regulators moving from scrutiny to direct price control.
Key numbers
- FY25 group revenue A$44.35bn, up 3.6%
- Coles holds about 29% of national grocery sales
- Cost-savings program cut A$327m in FY25
Named risks
- Pending 'Down Down' misleading-conduct penalty, potentially hundreds of millions AUD (Federal Court finding, 2026-05-14).
- New ACCC excessive pricing powers effective 2026-07-01 could compress margins via price/rebate scrutiny.
- Political resurfacing of forced structural divestiture calls despite March 2025 rejection.
- Unresolved headcount divergence (115,000 company claim vs 95,932 Revelio Labs estimate) signals possible automation-driven contraction.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Woolworths Group | contesting | Woolworths held ~38% national grocery share vs Coles ~29% as of ACCC inquiry, 2025-03-20 |
| ALDI Australia | contesting | ALDI holds ~9% share and is perceived as best value, pressuring Coles pricing, 2025-03-20 |
| Metcash/IGA | contesting | Metcash/IGA ~7% share, running 'Family Founded' campaign against majors, 2025-10-08 |
| Amazon Fresh/Pantry | gaining on | No credible multi-billion AU$ physical rollout signal; duopoly remains structurally entrenched as of 2025-03-20 |
Questions people ask
- Is Coles Group profitable in 2025?
- Yes. In FY25 (year ended 29 June 2025), Coles Group reported group sales revenue of A$44.35bn, up 3.6% normalised, with EBIT of approximately A$2.1bn and net profit after tax of approximately A$1.1bn, per its 26 August 2025 full-year results release.
- Who owns Coles Group?
- Coles Group is a public company on the ASX (ticker COL), spun off from Wesfarmers and re-listed independently on 21 November 2018 at A$12.49 a share. As of 19 July 2026, institutional holders like Vanguard, BlackRock, Norges Bank and State Street each hold no more than roughly 3%.
- Could AI replace Coles Group's business?
- No. Coles' core moat is physical: about 1,858 stores, 8,000+ suppliers, cold-chain logistics and 9.9 million Flybuys members (FY25). It is deploying AI, including an enterprise-wide ChatGPT partnership announced 30 October 2025, as an efficiency tool, not a replacement for its grocery retail operation.
- Is Coles Group cutting jobs?
- Unclear and disputed. Coles states it employs 'more than 115,000 team members', stable through FY24 and FY25 (as of 29 June 2025). Third-party Revelio Labs data instead shows headcount falling to 95,932 by Q1 2026, down 19% from 2023, a divergence not yet reconciled.
- Who is Coles Group's biggest competitor?
- Woolworths Group, which holds about 38% of Australia's national grocery market versus Coles' roughly 29%, per the ACCC's supermarket inquiry findings released 20 March 2025. ALDI (about 9%) and Metcash/IGA (about 7%) apply additional price pressure on both majors.
- Is Coles Group in legal trouble?
- Yes. On 14 May 2026 the Federal Court found Coles misled customers with its 'Down Down' discount promotions on 245 products in 2022 to 2023, breaching Australian Consumer Law. A penalty has not yet been set but could reach hundreds of millions of Australian dollars.
Timeline
- 2026-07-01New ACCC excessive grocery pricing powers take effect; ACCC blocks a proposed Coles store lease same day
- 2026-05-14Federal Court finds Coles misled customers over 'Down Down' discount claims
- 2026-01-04H1 FY26 revenue reported at A$23.69bn, up 6.38% year on year
- 2025-10-30Coles announces enterprise-wide OpenAI/ChatGPT Enterprise partnership
- 2025-08-26FY25 full year results released: A$44.35bn revenue, up 3.6% normalised
- 2025-06-29FY25 fiscal year ends; EBIT ~A$2.1bn, NPAT ~A$1.1bn
- 2025-03-20ACCC supermarket inquiry declines to recommend forced divestiture
- 2024-02Coles acquires 20 Tasmanian liquor stores from Federal Group
- 2023-05Coles completes sale of Coles Express to Viva Energy for A$300m
- 2018-11-21Coles Group re-lists on ASX independently at A$12.49 per share
Head to head
Revision history
25 July 2026
First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Coles Group
- 2025 Full Year Results Release (2025-08-26)
- Coles Group
- Coles Group Limited: 2025 Full Year Results Release
- Coles Group Ltd (CLEGF) (FY25) Earnings Call Highlights (2025-08-25)
- Coles Group (ASX) (2026-06-21)
- ACCC supermarket inquiry sidesteps calls for divestiture (2025-03-20)
- About us
- Coles Group Number of Employees 2026 (2026-06-29)
- Media releases (2025-10-30)
- Coles and Woolworths checkout move (2025-05-31)
- Court finds that Coles misled customers over 'Down Down' claims (2026-05-14)