WillItSurvive

Comet ML

Comet ML makes Opik, a tool for tracking and testing AI models and agents in production.

Losing its protection
Assessed 21 July 2026 · Evidence as of 21 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 21 July 2026 · Checkable from next 12 months · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Whether Comet closes a new funding round after 4.5 years since its last raise
The call

Comet has a genuinely popular open-source tool in Opik, but flat revenue, shrinking traffic, and a stale funding clock put it in a tight spot as bigger rivals ship the same features.

Comet builds tools that let AI engineers watch and debug their experiments. It has a popular free version (Opik) that 150,000 developers use and has won over big companies like Uber and Netflix. The problem is that many other companies now offer almost the same thing: Langfuse, LangSmith, Weights & Biases, and even cloud giants like Amazon and Google have their own versions. Comet's revenue has not grown in months, its headcount is not growing, and fewer people are visiting its website. One thing that could turn this around is if Comet raises new money soon and uses it to make Opik the clear favorite tool among AI engineers, ahead of its main rival Langfuse.

Why
01
AI pressure: OpenAI and Anthropic building native tracing/eval tools into their own platforms. If model makers ship built-in tracing, teams may skip separate observability tools like Opik entirely. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.
02
Bigger players: Weights & Biases (Weave, now owned by CoreWeave) and Databricks (MLflow). W&B already ships a direct Opik rival called Weave, and Databricks bundles MLflow free with its platform. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.
03
What protects it. Opik's open-source pull, 20k GitHub stars and 150k+ developers, plus logos like Uber and Netflix using it in production.
What would change this call
Comet announces a new funding round within 12 months. Shows whether investors still back Comet or it's capital-starved after 4.5 years without new capital.
Opik's GitHub star count and integrations vs. Langfuse's over the next two quarters. Shows whether Comet is winning or losing open-source developer mindshare in observability.
Comet's web traffic and headcount trend over the next two quarters. Shows whether the reported 41% traffic decline continues or reverses, indicating demand direction.
Key numbers
  • ARR roughly $17-18M (2024-2026)
  • Web traffic down 41% quarter over quarter (mid-2026)
  • Last raise was $50M Series B (Nov 2021)
Named risks
  • No new funding round since November 2021, raising concerns about capital availability. Severity: high
  • Web traffic declined about 41 percent quarter over quarter as of June 2026. Severity: high
  • Crowded field of well-funded rivals (Langfuse, LangSmith, W&B Weave, Arize, Braintrust) shipping comparable features fast. Severity: high
  • Only 1 open job role signals hiring freeze or limited growth investment. Severity: medium
  • No proprietary data, regulatory, or system-of-record moat beyond workflow lock-in and OSS trust. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Weights & Biases (Weave, via CoreWeave)losing toW&B shipped Weave directly against Comet; W&B acquired by CoreWeave, referenced as of Jan 2026
LangfusecontestingOpen-source rival matching Opik's OSS distribution strategy through 2026
LangSmith (LangChain)losing toDescribed as default observability layer for the most popular LLM app framework, mid-2026
Arize AIcontestingCompeting directly in LLM observability and evaluation market as of 2026
BraintrustcontestingListed among direct rivals shipping comparable agentic features on similar cadence, 2026
MLflow (Databricks)losing toFree, bundled open-source tracking commoditizes Comet's original core experiment-tracking value
Questions people ask
Is Comet ML profitable?
No public profitability data exists since Comet is private. Third-party estimates put ARR around 17 to 18 million dollars for 2024 to 2026, up from an estimated 10.2 million in 2023, per Latka as of December 2024. No profit figures are disclosed.
Has Comet ML raised new funding recently?
No. Comet's last confirmed round was a 50 million dollar Series B in November 2021 led by OpenView Venture Partners. As of mid 2026, roughly 4.5 years have passed with no new disclosed round, raising questions about its ability to re-raise.
Is Comet ML growing or shrinking?
Signals are mixed to weak. Crustdata reported web traffic down about 41 percent quarter over quarter and only 1 open job role as of June 2026, giving Comet a Growth Score of 12 out of 100, despite headcount ticking up to roughly 103 employees.
Who is Comet ML's biggest competitor?
Weights and Biases (W&B), now tied to CoreWeave, is the closest incumbent threat via its Weave product, which directly competes with Comet's Opik. Langfuse, LangSmith, Arize, and Braintrust also contest the same LLM observability market as of 2026.
Could AI replace Comet ML's product?
Not directly. Comet's Opik observability tool tracks and evaluates AI agent behavior, so more agent usage increases demand for it rather than replacing it. The longer-term risk is frontier labs like Anthropic or OpenAI building native tracing tools, which Comet is hedging against with a Claude Code plugin launched March 2026.
What is Opik and does it matter for Comet ML's survival?
Opik is Comet's open-source LLM evaluation and observability platform, launched September 2024, claiming over 150,000 developers and about 20,000 GitHub stars as of April 2026. It is Comet's main growth bet in a crowded field against Langfuse, LangSmith, and W&B Weave.
Timeline
  • 2026-06Comet adds Claude Code spend-tracking and cost-intelligence feature to Opik
  • 2026-06Comet announces integration with Oracle's Open Agent Specification
  • 2026-05-05Opik changelog rolls in Ollie agent, Test Suites, and Agent Playground release
  • 2026-04-23Interview describes Opik as fastest-growing OSS agent observability project, 150k plus developers
  • 2026-04-21Comet announces Ollie coding agent, Test Suites, and Agent Playground for Opik
  • 2026-03-02Comet launches Opik Claude Code Plugin for auto-instrumenting agent observability
  • 2024-12-02Comet press release claims platform trusted by over 150 enterprise customers
  • 2024-09Comet launches Opik, open-source LLM evaluation and observability platform
  • 2021-11Comet raises 50 million dollar Series B led by OpenView Venture Partners
  • 2021-04-08Comet raises 13 million dollar Series A led by Scale Venture Partners
Revision history
21 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources