Is Commonwealth Bank of Australia profitable in 2026?

Yes. CBA posted FY2025 cash NPAT of A$10.25bn, up 4% on FY24 as of 30 June 2025, and reported its strongest domestic half in years with deposit and lending balances up A$44bn in H1 FY2026 (to 31 December 2025).

Could AI replace Commonwealth Bank of Australia?

No. CBA's moat is its banking licence, APRA capital rules, AML/CTF compliance and 18.2 million customer deposit franchise as of June 2025, not something AI can replicate. AI feeds fraud detection and service automation, but a chatbot job-cut backfired in August 2025 and was reversed.

Did Commonwealth Bank cut jobs because of AI?

Yes, briefly. In July 2025 CBA cut 45 call-centre jobs citing its AI chatbot, but reversed the decision in August 2025 after call volumes rose, calling it an 'error' and also dropping GitHub Copilot after mixed results.

Who owns Commonwealth Bank of Australia?

CBA is publicly traded on the ASX (ticker CBA) with no controlling parent, fully privatised since 1996 and listed since 1991. As of its FY2025 results dated 13 August 2025, it had over 800,000 direct shareholders.

Who is Commonwealth Bank's biggest competitor?

Its closest rivals are Australia's other Big Four banks: Westpac, NAB and ANZ. Westpac's app was rated #1 in Australia for a third straight year in October 2025, while Macquarie Bank is increasingly cited as a fast-moving digital challenger in mortgages and deposits.

Is Commonwealth Bank stock a good buy in 2026?

Analyst sentiment is cautious. As of 22 July 2026, CBA shares were down roughly 15% over the trailing 52 weeks, with analyst consensus rated 'Strong Sell' and average price targets about 24% below the recent share price.

Banks and financial groups · Australia

Commonwealth Bank of Australia

commbank.com.au ↗

Australia's largest retail bank, holding deposits, mortgages and payments for 18.2M customers.

Hard to displace

Assessed 22 July 2026 · Evidence as of 22 July 2026

Strong structural protection; the business model survives ai pressure.

On the recordSince 22 July 2026 · Checkable from August 2026 and post-June 2026 hearing · Every call on the record Checkpoint: FY2026 full-year results and High Court shareholder class action ruling on continuous disclosure

The call

CBA sits on a regulatory and deposit position no AI product or digital rival has managed to crack, even as its stock price and a class action draw scrutiny.

Commonwealth Bank is Australia's largest retail bank that handles deposits, mortgages, payments, and retirement savings for about 18 million people. It is hard to replace because banking requires government licenses, strict capital rules, and connections to national payment systems that took decades to build, and rivals like Macquarie Bank have not yet stolen meaningful customer numbers despite trying. The picture could shift if a court ruling goes against the bank on disclosure practices, if interest rates fall and squeeze profits, or if unions block the bank's plans to use artificial intelligence to automate jobs after the bank already had to roll back a chatbot in 2025.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. AI tools like the OpenAI-powered fraud detection and chatbots cut costs and fraud losses rather than pulling customers away from CBA. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: Macquarie Bank. Macquarie keeps gaining digital mortgage and deposit share, but hasn't dented CBA's 18.2M-customer base or its 30-year Big Four grip. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. An Australian banking licence, APRA capital rules and AML law that no neobank or tech firm can get around.

What would change this call

CBA FY2026 full-year results released 12 August 2026. shows whether NIM and deposit growth held up through the rate cycle.
High Court ruling on the shareholder class action heard 11 June 2026. sets continuous-disclosure precedent affecting CBA's legal and reputational exposure.
Macquarie Bank's reported deposit and mortgage market share over the next year. would show whether a rival is actually pulling primary-account customers from CBA.

Key numbers

FY2025 cash profit A$10.25bn, up 4% (2025-06-30)
18.2M customers, up from 17.6M (2025-06-30)
Stock down ~15% over past year, analysts say Strong Sell (2026-05)

Named risks

High Court shareholder class action over 2018 AUSTRAC disclosure could set damages precedent. Severity: high
Finance Sector Union friction over agentic AI rollouts following 2025 chatbot reversal. Severity: medium
Stock down 15% TTM with Strong Sell analyst consensus signals valuation compression. Severity: medium
Regulatory penalties for Consumer Data Right breaches and ongoing remediation program. Severity: low
RBA rate cycle swings could compress net interest margin. Severity: medium

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Westpac	gaining on	App rated #1 in Australia for third consecutive year, October 2025
ING Australia	gaining on	Leads digital activity share at 93% of customers digitally active, June 2025
Macquarie Bank	contesting	Cited as fast-digital-execution challenger in mortgages and deposits, mid 2026 commentary
NAB	contesting	Leads on financial-discipline app features and business banking strength, October 2025
ANZ	contesting	Suncorp Bank integration cited as vulnerability rivals are targeting, late 2025

Questions people ask

Is Commonwealth Bank of Australia profitable in 2026?: Yes. CBA posted FY2025 cash NPAT of A$10.25bn, up 4% on FY24 as of 30 June 2025, and reported its strongest domestic half in years with deposit and lending balances up A$44bn in H1 FY2026 (to 31 December 2025).
Could AI replace Commonwealth Bank of Australia?: No. CBA's moat is its banking licence, APRA capital rules, AML/CTF compliance and 18.2 million customer deposit franchise as of June 2025, not something AI can replicate. AI feeds fraud detection and service automation, but a chatbot job-cut backfired in August 2025 and was reversed.
Did Commonwealth Bank cut jobs because of AI?: Yes, briefly. In July 2025 CBA cut 45 call-centre jobs citing its AI chatbot, but reversed the decision in August 2025 after call volumes rose, calling it an 'error' and also dropping GitHub Copilot after mixed results.
Who owns Commonwealth Bank of Australia?: CBA is publicly traded on the ASX (ticker CBA) with no controlling parent, fully privatised since 1996 and listed since 1991. As of its FY2025 results dated 13 August 2025, it had over 800,000 direct shareholders.
Who is Commonwealth Bank's biggest competitor?: Its closest rivals are Australia's other Big Four banks: Westpac, NAB and ANZ. Westpac's app was rated #1 in Australia for a third straight year in October 2025, while Macquarie Bank is increasingly cited as a fast-moving digital challenger in mortgages and deposits.
Is Commonwealth Bank stock a good buy in 2026?: Analyst sentiment is cautious. As of 22 July 2026, CBA shares were down roughly 15% over the trailing 52 weeks, with analyst consensus rated 'Strong Sell' and average price targets about 24% below the recent share price.

Timeline

2026-06-11High Court hears shareholder class action over 2018 AUSTRAC disclosure, outcome pending
2026-05-17Appoints Professor Mary-Anne Williams as first Chief AI Scientist
2025-12-09Pays A$792,000 ACCC penalty for alleged Consumer Data Right breaches
2025-12-04Launches AI and cybersecurity initiative for 1 million small business customers with OpenAI
2025-08-22Reverses 45 chatbot-linked job cuts, drops GitHub Copilot after mixed results
2025-08-13Announces multi-year OpenAI partnership; reports FY2025 cash NPAT of A$10.25bn
2025-07-29Cuts 45 call centre jobs citing AI chatbot automation
2025-06-30FY2025 year end: customer base reaches 18.2 million, NIM 2.08%

Revision history

22 July 2026

First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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