WillItSurvive
AI companies and labs · United States

DataRobot

DataRobot builds enterprise tools for training, governing, and deploying machine learning and agentic AI models.

Protection under test
Assessed 20 July 2026 · Evidence as of 20 July 2026
Something worth protecting exists and is being tested right now.
On the recordSince 20 July 2026 · Checkable from August 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: EU AI Act high-risk system compliance obligations take effect
The call

DataRobot still serves banks, pharma, and telcos at scale, but its valuation has collapsed while Databricks and hyperscalers close in on the ground it retreated to.

DataRobot built software that automatically creates AI models, but that original advantage disappeared when big cloud companies like AWS and Google added similar tools, and when AI language models made automation easier for everyone. The company tried to pivot to helping businesses govern and manage AI across different cloud systems, but Databricks (a better-funded competitor), along with companies like UiPath and LangChain, are chasing the same customers in what is now a crowded market. The one thing that could matter: if DataRobot can prove that its existing large customers are actually using the new AI governance features and paying more for them over time, that would show the new strategy is working; if not, the company's value stays stuck.

Why
01
AI pressure: Hyperscaler AutoML and LLM-based model builders (AWS SageMaker, Google Vertex AI, OpenAI/Anthropic agent tooling). LLMs and cloud AutoML now do what DataRobot's original product did, pushing the company into governance and orchestration instead. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.
02
Bigger players: Databricks. Databricks is expanding into multi-cloud governance and orchestration, the exact space DataRobot pivoted to defend. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.
03
What protects it. Long-standing Fortune 50 contracts, workflow lock-in inside regulated industries, and EU AI Act compliance demand.
What would change this call
DataRobot announces an up-round, strategic acquisition, or IPO filing within 12 months. Would show investors regained confidence after the ~97% valuation markdown.
Databricks ships air-gapped or on-prem governance/orchestration tooling before DataRobot raises new capital. Would show Databricks closing DataRobot's last differentiated niche.
DataRobot reports two consecutive quarters of ARR growth above 30% on its agentic/governance product. Would show the pivot away from commoditized AutoML is actually working.
Key numbers
  • Valuation fell ~97%, from $6.3B to under $170M (2026-04-14)
  • Estimated revenue $225M to $338M annually (2026-07-02)
  • Headcount dropped from 1,700 to 869 (2026-07-02)
Named risks
  • Valuation collapsed ~97% from $6.3B (2021) to under $169.77M (April 2026), threatening future fundraising. Severity: high
  • Revenue growth of ~13% y/y trails a market growing 40%+, indicating share loss. Severity: high
  • Databricks or hyperscalers could replicate governance/agentic moat, eliminating differentiation. Severity: medium
  • Headcount fell from 1,700 (2021) to 869 (2026) after a 26% layoff, signaling ongoing contraction. Severity: medium
  • No near-term IPO path stated as of April 2026, limiting liquidity for employees and investors. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
DatabrickscontestingNamed explicit threat behind Feb 2025 Agnostiq acquisition to bolster agentic AI infra
AWS SageMakergaining onCut GPU pricing ~45%, cited by Sacra as most formidable hyperscaler threat, Dec 2025
DataikucontestingHolds 4.7 Gartner rating vs DataRobot's 4.6 in same category
Google Vertex AI / Microsoft Azure AIgaining onHyperscaler-native AutoML commoditizing DataRobot's founding product, per Sacra Dec 2025
Questions people ask
Is DataRobot profitable in 2026?
DataRobot is private and does not disclose financials. Third-party estimates put revenue between $225M and $338M annually (Sacra, Latka, ZoomInfo, 2023 to 2026), but no profitability figures have been published as of July 2026.
Is DataRobot still worth $6.3 billion?
No. DataRobot's Series G valuation was $6.3 to $6.45B in July 2021. Forge Global reported in April 2026 that secondary-market pricing implies a valuation under $169.77 million, a decline of roughly 97 percent.
Could AI replace DataRobot's core product?
DataRobot's original AutoML product has already been largely commoditized by hyperscaler AutoML tools and general-purpose LLMs that can now build models via prompting, per Sacra's December 2025 analysis, pushing the company to pivot toward agentic AI governance.
Who is DataRobot's biggest competitor?
Databricks is named as the primary competitive threat, explicitly cited as a reason DataRobot acquired Agnostiq in February 2025. AWS also pressures DataRobot by cutting SageMaker GPU pricing roughly 45 percent, per Sacra.
Who owns DataRobot?
DataRobot is privately held and venture-backed with no parent company. Investors from its July 2021 Series G include Altimeter Capital, Tiger Global, Morgan Stanley Counterpoint Global, Franklin Templeton, ServiceNow Ventures, and Sutter Hill Ventures.
Is DataRobot planning an IPO?
No. Forge Global reported on April 14, 2026 that DataRobot has stated no near-term IPO plans, following its valuation collapse from a $6.3 to $6.45B peak in 2021 to under $169.77 million on the secondary market.
Timeline
  • 2026-06-24Named Gartner Leader in Data Science and ML Platforms Magic Quadrant for third straight year
  • 2026-06-03Announced Chevron partnership for agentic AI in autonomous facility inspections
  • 2026-04-14Forge Global reports secondary valuation under $169.77M, down ~97% from 2021 peak
  • 2025-08-26Launched Agent Workforce Platform co-engineered with NVIDIA
  • 2025-05-19Included in NVIDIA Enterprise AI Factory validated design for Blackwell
  • 2025-03-18General availability of expanded NVIDIA NIM/NeMo integration
  • 2025-02-10Acquired Agnostiq and its Covalent compute-orchestration platform
  • 2022-08-26Conducted 26% layoff amid CEO turnover and financial distress
  • 2021-07Closed $300M Series G at $6.3 to $6.45B valuation led by Altimeter and Tiger Global
Revision history
20 July 2026
First assessed. Protection under test. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources