Is FICO still profitable in 2026?

Yes. FICO reported FY2025 (ended Sept 30, 2025) revenue of $1.991B, up 16% YoY, with GAAP net income of $652M and operating income of $925M. Q2 FY2026 revenue hit $691.7M, up 39% YoY, showing continued profitability despite competitive pressure.

Can VantageScore replace FICO in the mortgage market?

As of April 22, 2026, FHFA and HUD approved VantageScore 4.0 alongside FICO 10T for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA underwriting, ending FICO's mortgage-score exclusivity. Bureaus price VantageScore pulls at $0.99 to $1.00 versus FICO's roughly $10, though switching inertia has kept FICO's Scores revenue growing so far.

Is FICO's biggest competitor Equifax, Experian, or TransUnion?

All three, via their jointly owned VantageScore. Since VantageScore 4.0 gained GSE mortgage approval on April 22, 2026, the bureaus have aggressively undercut FICO's ~$10 wholesale score price with $0.99 to $1.00 pricing, directly targeting FICO's 91%-margin Scores segment.

Could AI replace FICO's credit scoring business?

Unlikely to replace it outright. FICO's moat rests on decades of proprietary scoring data and deep regulatory embedding in mortgage rules, not on tasks AI easily substitutes. FICO itself ships AI via Platform 6.0 and FICO Responsible AI, with platform ARR up 49% YoY as of Q2 FY2026 (reported April 28, 2026).

Why did FICO's stock crash in 2026?

FICO shares fell more than 13% in a single day on April 22, 2026, after FHFA and HUD announced GSEs would accept VantageScore 4.0 alongside FICO 10T for mortgages. Shares were down roughly 50% year-to-date at that point, trading around $1,250 to $1,340 by July 2026.

FICO (Fair Isaac Corporation) is an independent publicly traded company on the NYSE under ticker FICO, not owned by any parent company. As of July 21, 2026 its market cap was roughly $24 to 29 billion, headquartered in Bozeman, Montana.

Payments companies · United States

FICO

fico.com ↗

FICO sells the credit score used in most US lending and mortgage decisions.

Losing its protection

Assessed 21 July 2026 · Evidence as of 21 July 2026

The structural protection is eroding.

On the recordSince 21 July 2026 · Checkable from late July or early August 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q3 FY2026 earnings call disclosing VantageScore mortgage adoption and Scores segment growth

The call

FICO is still growing fast and pricing up, but the rule that forced lenders to use its score alone is gone, and the next two earnings calls will show whether that matters yet.

FICO is a company that creates credit scores used by banks and lenders to decide whether to give people loans. For decades, FICO's scores were the only option lenders had to use, which made the company very profitable. But in April 2026, regulators said lenders could use VantageScore instead, a competing score made by the three credit bureaus (Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion) and priced ten times cheaper. The question now is whether FICO's old customers will stick with it out of habit and familiarity, or if they will switch to the cheaper option and erode FICO's profits significantly.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. AI is not the predator here; FICO is using generative and explainable AI inside its own Platform 6.0 to defend pricing power. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: Equifax, Experian and TransUnion via VantageScore 4.0. The three bureaus that co-own VantageScore got regulators to approve it for mortgages on April 22, 2026, pricing scores at $0.99 versus FICO's roughly $10. Could a giant copy it? Probably.

What protects it. Decades of lender workflows, GSE systems and risk models are wired to FICO's exact score, so switching means re-underwriting, not just re-pricing.

What would change this call

VantageScore mortgage adoption rate disclosed in FICO's Q3/Q4 FY2026 earnings (Jul/Aug 2026, then late 2026). Rising adoption above 5% would show lenders actually switching away from FICO scores.
FICO Scores segment revenue growth rate in next two quarterly reports. A slowdown from the current 60% YoY pace would show price/volume pressure from the cheaper rival.
Florida AG antitrust case and Hawley/FTC investigation outcomes after the August 5, 2026 subpoena deadline. A settlement or forced pricing concession would show regulators are actively weakening FICO's pricing power.

Key numbers

Scores segment revenue up 60% YoY to $475M (2026-04-28)
VantageScore priced at $0.99 vs FICO's ~$10 per score (2026-04-22)
FY2026 revenue guidance raised to $2.45B (2026-04-28)

Named risks

VantageScore 4.0 GSE mortgage approval erodes FICO's Scores segment pricing and share. Severity: high
Florida AG antitrust subpoena (response due August 5, 2026) and Hawley FTC push could force pricing concessions. Severity: high
Roughly 10 federal antitrust class actions from 2020-2023 remain unresolved as of July 2026. Severity: medium
Stock volatility with single-day swings of 5-13% tied to regulatory headlines through July 2026. Severity: medium
Generative AI decisioning tools could commoditize lower-end rules-based software competing with FICO Platform. Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
VantageScore (Equifax/Experian/TransUnion)	gaining on	Approved for GSE mortgages April 22, 2026, priced $0.99-$1.00 vs FICO's ~$10
Equifax, Experian, TransUnion	contesting	Aggressively pricing VantageScore mortgage pulls to undercut FICO's Scores margin as of April 22, 2026
Pega, Taktile, InRule, Nected	contesting	AI-native decisioning platforms competing with FICO Platform, noted June 17, 2026

Questions people ask

Is FICO still profitable in 2026?: Yes. FICO reported FY2025 (ended Sept 30, 2025) revenue of $1.991B, up 16% YoY, with GAAP net income of $652M and operating income of $925M. Q2 FY2026 revenue hit $691.7M, up 39% YoY, showing continued profitability despite competitive pressure.
Can VantageScore replace FICO in the mortgage market?: As of April 22, 2026, FHFA and HUD approved VantageScore 4.0 alongside FICO 10T for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA underwriting, ending FICO's mortgage-score exclusivity. Bureaus price VantageScore pulls at $0.99 to $1.00 versus FICO's roughly $10, though switching inertia has kept FICO's Scores revenue growing so far.
Is FICO's biggest competitor Equifax, Experian, or TransUnion?: All three, via their jointly owned VantageScore. Since VantageScore 4.0 gained GSE mortgage approval on April 22, 2026, the bureaus have aggressively undercut FICO's ~$10 wholesale score price with $0.99 to $1.00 pricing, directly targeting FICO's 91%-margin Scores segment.
Could AI replace FICO's credit scoring business?: Unlikely to replace it outright. FICO's moat rests on decades of proprietary scoring data and deep regulatory embedding in mortgage rules, not on tasks AI easily substitutes. FICO itself ships AI via Platform 6.0 and FICO Responsible AI, with platform ARR up 49% YoY as of Q2 FY2026 (reported April 28, 2026).
Why did FICO's stock crash in 2026?: FICO shares fell more than 13% in a single day on April 22, 2026, after FHFA and HUD announced GSEs would accept VantageScore 4.0 alongside FICO 10T for mortgages. Shares were down roughly 50% year-to-date at that point, trading around $1,250 to $1,340 by July 2026.
Who owns FICO?: FICO (Fair Isaac Corporation) is an independent publicly traded company on the NYSE under ticker FICO, not owned by any parent company. As of July 21, 2026 its market cap was roughly $24 to 29 billion, headquartered in Bozeman, Montana.

Timeline

2026-07-01Florida AG issues civil antitrust subpoena to FICO; response due August 5, 2026
2026-05-22FICO relaunches UltraFICO with real-time cash-flow data via expanded Plaid partnership
2026-05-12FICO defends moat with Milliman studies and launches $0.99 Direct License Program
2026-04-28Q2 FY2026 earnings: revenue $691.7M (+39% YoY), platform ARR +49% YoY, guidance raised to $2.45B
2026-04-22FHFA/HUD approve VantageScore 4.0 alongside FICO 10T for GSE mortgages; FICO shares fall over 13%
2026-03-23Senator Josh Hawley opens investigation into FICO mortgage pricing, urges FTC action
2025-11-05Q4 FY2025 results: revenue $515.8-516M (+14% YoY), EPS $6.42
2025-10-01FICO introduces new mortgage pricing model: $4.95 royalty plus $33 per funded loan option
2025-09-30FY2025 closes: total revenue $1.991B (+16% YoY), net income $652M
2025-06-10FICO Platform named Leader in Forrester Wave AI Decisioning Platforms report

Revision history

21 July 2026

First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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