Is Gazprom still profitable in 2026?

Yes, at the group IFRS level. Gazprom reported 1.307 trillion rubles (about $17.45bn) net profit for 2025, up 7% year over year, per TASS on 2026-04-30. However the parent company alone under Russian accounting standards earned just 11.28 billion rubles, and no dividend was declared for 2025.

Is Gazprom paying a dividend for 2025?

No. Gazprom confirmed it will not pay dividends for fiscal year 2025, according to AK&M on 2026-06-28, signaling continued financial strain despite a reported group net profit.

Who is Gazprom's biggest competitor?

In gas exports, Gazprom's main pressure comes from US LNG exporters and QatarEnergy, which are displacing it in the European market as sanctions bite, per Moscow Times reporting on 2026-07-15. Domestically, Novatek is emerging as Russia's more successful gas exporter via LNG.

Could AI replace Gazprom's business?

No. Gazprom's core business is physical pipeline infrastructure, gas fields, and extraction, not knowledge work, so generative AI poses essentially no direct threat to its revenue. Its moat is Russian law and 35.1 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves, not digital know-how, as of 2026-07-25.

Is Gazprom losing its European gas market?

Yes, decisively. European pipeline exports collapsed from about 140 bcm in 2021 to as low as 18 bcm by mid-2026, and the EU has legislated bans on short-term LNG (April 2026), long-term LNG (January 2027), and pipeline gas (September 2027), per Dow Jones reporting on 2026-06-25.

Will Power of Siberia 2 replace Gazprom's lost European sales?

Not soon. China is demanding pricing near its domestic tariff of about $50 per thousand cubic meters versus the $223 to $259 Gazprom currently receives, and analysts say the pipeline is unlikely to be operational before 2030, per Moscow Times on 2026-05-13 and Razom on 2026-07-24.

Oil and gas companies · state-owned · Russia

Gazprom

gazprom.com ↗

Russian state gas monopoly that once piped a third of Europe's gas supply.

Losing its protection

Assessed 26 July 2026 · Evidence as of 26 July 2026

The structural protection is eroding.

On the recordSince 26 July 2026 · Checkable from January 1, 2027 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: EU ban on long-term LNG contracts takes effect

The call

Gazprom keeps its legal grip on Russian gas exports while the market it built that grip for closes by law, and China has not agreed to pay enough to replace it.

Gazprom sells natural gas through pipelines and exports, mostly to Europe and China. Europe has banned Russian gas imports by law starting in 2027, cutting off its biggest customer, while a potential replacement sale to China remains deadlocked because China refuses to pay the price Gazprom wants and the pipeline would not be ready until 2030 anyway. The key question is whether Gazprom and China can reach a price agreement that makes a new pipeline deal work, because without it, the company faces several years of sharply lower revenue with no clear backup plan.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. AI has no role in this business; pipelines and sanctions law decide its fate, not algorithms. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: European Union. EU sanctions cut pipeline exports from 140 bcm in 2021 to about 18 bcm, with full bans landing 2026 to 2027. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. State ownership and a legal export monopoly keep the entity alive even as European revenue disappears.

What would change this call

EU's long-term LNG import ban takes effect January 1, 2027. Confirms Gazprom's legal exclusion from Europe's LNG market, not just pipeline gas.
Power of Siberia 2 price and financing deal signed with China. Would show Gazprom has a viable second revenue base to replace lost European sales.
Gazprom announces a dividend for fiscal year 2026. Would signal a genuine return to sustainable distributable cash flow.

Key numbers

European pipeline exports fell from 140 bcm to 18 bcm (2026-06-25)
China wants Power of Siberia 2 gas at $50/mcm vs $223 to $259 paid now (2026-07-24)
No dividend paid for fiscal year 2025 (2026-06-28)

Named risks

EU legislated bans phase out remaining LNG and pipeline gas revenue by Sept 2027. Severity: high
Power of Siberia 2 pricing deadlock with China leaves no near-term replacement for lost Europe sales. Severity: high
Ukrainian drone strikes on infrastructure creating operational disruption in 2026. Severity: medium
No 2025 dividend and rising net debt to EBITDA signal financial strain. Severity: medium
Conflicting headcount data across sources undermines workforce transparency. Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
US LNG exporters	losing to	US LNG expected to supply up to 66% of EU LNG imports by 2026, per Moscow Times 2026-07-15
QatarEnergy	losing to	Cited as displacing Gazprom in the European gas market, per Moscow Times 2026-07-15
Novatek	losing to	Viewed as Russia's more successful gas exporter to Europe via Yamal LNG
CNPC (PetroChina)	contesting	Holds pricing leverage in unresolved Power of Siberia 2 talks, demanding ~$50/mcm as of 2026-07-24
Lukoil	contesting	Both under Western sanctions; Lukoil reportedly facing forced divestment of international assets, 2026-04-15

Questions people ask

Is Gazprom still profitable in 2026?: Yes, at the group IFRS level. Gazprom reported 1.307 trillion rubles (about $17.45bn) net profit for 2025, up 7% year over year, per TASS on 2026-04-30. However the parent company alone under Russian accounting standards earned just 11.28 billion rubles, and no dividend was declared for 2025.
Is Gazprom paying a dividend for 2025?: No. Gazprom confirmed it will not pay dividends for fiscal year 2025, according to AK&M on 2026-06-28, signaling continued financial strain despite a reported group net profit.
Who is Gazprom's biggest competitor?: In gas exports, Gazprom's main pressure comes from US LNG exporters and QatarEnergy, which are displacing it in the European market as sanctions bite, per Moscow Times reporting on 2026-07-15. Domestically, Novatek is emerging as Russia's more successful gas exporter via LNG.
Could AI replace Gazprom's business?: No. Gazprom's core business is physical pipeline infrastructure, gas fields, and extraction, not knowledge work, so generative AI poses essentially no direct threat to its revenue. Its moat is Russian law and 35.1 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves, not digital know-how, as of 2026-07-25.
Is Gazprom losing its European gas market?: Yes, decisively. European pipeline exports collapsed from about 140 bcm in 2021 to as low as 18 bcm by mid-2026, and the EU has legislated bans on short-term LNG (April 2026), long-term LNG (January 2027), and pipeline gas (September 2027), per Dow Jones reporting on 2026-06-25.
Will Power of Siberia 2 replace Gazprom's lost European sales?: Not soon. China is demanding pricing near its domestic tariff of about $50 per thousand cubic meters versus the $223 to $259 Gazprom currently receives, and analysts say the pipeline is unlikely to be operational before 2030, per Moscow Times on 2026-05-13 and Razom on 2026-07-24.

Timeline

2026-07-24EU agrees 21st sanctions package, sets LNG and pipeline gas ban dates
2026-07-07Gazprom offers 4x average salary bonuses for infrastructure security volunteers
2026-06-28Gazprom confirms no dividend for fiscal year 2025
2026-06-25Report shows European exports down to 18 bcm from 140 bcm in 2021
2026-06-15EU sanctions Gazprom as technical manager of two vessels
2026-06-09Gazprom group headcount falls to 500,400, first decline in 7 years
2026-04-30Gazprom reports 2025 IFRS net profit of 1.307 trillion rubles, up 7%
2026-04-25EU ban on short-term Russian LNG contracts takes effect
2026-03-16Gazprom Household Systems reports 30,000+ refrigerators from seized Bosch plant
2025-09-02Russia and China sign binding memorandum advancing Power of Siberia 2

Revision history

26 July 2026

First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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