Is Goodman Group in financial trouble?

No, the numbers point the other way: FY2025 operating profit reached A$2,311.2 million with operating EPS of 118.0 cents for the year to 30 June 2025, and its total portfolio was valued at A$85.6 billion at that date. H1 FY26 operating profit was A$1,203.5 million, alongside A$75.2 billion of external funds under management as of 31 December 2025, which keeps fee income flowing on top of the property portfolio.

Who are Goodman Group's biggest competitors?

In global industrial and logistics property, Goodman is contested by Prologis and SEGRO in developed markets and by GLP and ESR for land and capital access across Asia-Pacific. As it expands into data centres, it also faces specialist operators like Digital Realty, Equinix and NextDC. Even against this competitive set, Goodman's FY2025 operating profit of A$2,311.2 million and A$75.2 billion of external funds under management as of 31 December 2025 show a business with meaningful scale and fee income that smaller rivals lack.

Is Goodman Group at risk from AI?

The AI threat is rated as building rather than urgent: AI-driven demand is filling Goodman's data centre pipeline today, but hyperscalers like AWS, Microsoft, Google and Meta increasingly self-build sites, which could leave spec capacity unleased. Goodman's counter is 5GW of secured grid power across 13 cities plus A$75.2 billion of external funds paying management fees as of 31 December 2025, and the AI-replacement read is currently rated unlikely.

Can bigger companies easily copy what Goodman Group does?

Copying the model is difficult. Goodman's moat rests on scarce urban logistics land, secured grid power, and a long-standing tenant and capital-partner network built up across its A$85.6 billion portfolio (as of 30 June 2025) and A$75.2 billion of external funds under management (as of 31 December 2025), none of which a newer or smaller developer can quickly replicate.

What is the biggest thing to watch with Goodman Group going forward?

The key date is August 2026, when full-year results should reveal the pre-leasing percentage on a development pipeline that could exceed A$18 billion in work-in-progress. The same results will confirm whether operating EPS growth for FY26 lands near the roughly 9% level flagged earlier, a useful check on how the data centre push is paying off.

How does Goodman Group compare to its closest peers?

Among comparable global real estate and logistics peers, Goodman stands out for combining logistics and data centre exposure in a way most traditional real estate peers, such as CK Asset and Henderson Land, do not. Its FY2025 operating profit of A$2,311.2 million and A$75.2 billion of external funds under management as of 31 December 2025 reflect a fee-generating platform layered on top of its property portfolio, a combination not shared by most peers in its category.

Real estate developers · Australia

Goodman Group

goodman.com ↗

Australian REIT building warehouses and, increasingly, data centres on owned power-connected land.

Defensible for now

Assessed 30 July 2026 · Evidence as of 30 July 2026

Real protection, with named pressure against it.

On the recordSince 30 July 2026 · Checkable from August 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: FY26 full-year results, checking 9% EPS growth and A$18bn WIP guidance

The call

Goodman's land and power position looks hard to challenge, but most of its A$18bn data centre pipeline still has no named tenant locked in.

Goodman Group owns and leases industrial buildings and land with power connections across 16 cities, plus manages A$75bn in investor money. The company is hard to copy because it owns the actual land and power infrastructure that data centres need, which takes years to build and cannot be quickly replaced by rivals like Prologis. However, three-quarters of its new construction is bet on AI companies continuing to spend huge amounts on data centres, and many of these buildings are not yet rented to anyone; if AI companies slow their spending or choose other locations, Goodman's growth story breaks and its stock could fall sharply.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. AI is Goodman's tenant, not its predator: hyperscaler demand fills its A$18bn pipeline, but a capex pullback would leave space empty. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: Prologis. Prologis, the larger global logistics REIT, is also chasing hyperscaler data centre leases and competes for the same institutional tenants. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. 6GW of grid-connected power across 16 cities plus A$75bn in third-party funds management, both hard to replicate quickly.

What would change this call

FY26 full-year results (Aug 2026) show pre-leasing rate on the data-centre WIP pipeline. Reveals whether hyperscaler demand is keeping pace with Goodman's data-centre build-out.
A named hyperscaler publicly delays or cancels a committed Goodman data-centre project. Would show AI-capex demand cooling and threaten the core growth thesis.
Goodman's gearing ratio and WIP percentage in data centres both rise in the FY26 report. Would indicate rising leverage against unleased speculative capacity.

Key numbers

FY25 operating profit A$2.31bn, up 13% (2025-06-30)
WIP guided to A$18bn by June 2026, 73% data centres (2026-02-19)
Power bank 6.0 GW across 16 cities (2025-12-31)

Named risks

73% of A$18bn WIP is data centres with management-flagged limited pre-leasing as of Feb 2026. Severity: high
Rate-cycle sensitivity: GMG shares fell mid-July 2026 on doubts about capital-intensive DC pivot. Severity: medium
Community and political backlash against AI data centres (noise lawsuits, Gallup shows 70% US opposition) could delay pipeline. Severity: medium
Growth story dependent on sustained hyperscaler AI capex continuing at current pace. Severity: high

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Prologis	contesting	Cited as global logistics REIT scale leader on institutional tenant reach, per May 2026 analyst comparison
SEGRO	contesting	Leading UK/European industrial REIT competing for the same institutional capital and assets
GLP	contesting	Asia-Pacific logistics developer competing for regional land and funds-management mandates
DataBank	gaining on	Goodman entered 50/50 JV with DataBank for 32MW LA data centre, announced 2026-04-07
Equinix, Digital Realty, NEXTDC	contesting	Goodman positions as landowner/developer/capital partner rather than direct colocation operator in DC space

Questions people ask

Is Goodman Group in financial trouble?: No, the numbers point the other way: FY2025 operating profit reached A$2,311.2 million with operating EPS of 118.0 cents for the year to 30 June 2025, and its total portfolio was valued at A$85.6 billion at that date. H1 FY26 operating profit was A$1,203.5 million, alongside A$75.2 billion of external funds under management as of 31 December 2025, which keeps fee income flowing on top of the property portfolio.
Who are Goodman Group's biggest competitors?: In global industrial and logistics property, Goodman is contested by Prologis and SEGRO in developed markets and by GLP and ESR for land and capital access across Asia-Pacific. As it expands into data centres, it also faces specialist operators like Digital Realty, Equinix and NextDC. Even against this competitive set, Goodman's FY2025 operating profit of A$2,311.2 million and A$75.2 billion of external funds under management as of 31 December 2025 show a business with meaningful scale and fee income that smaller rivals lack.
Is Goodman Group at risk from AI?: The AI threat is rated as building rather than urgent: AI-driven demand is filling Goodman's data centre pipeline today, but hyperscalers like AWS, Microsoft, Google and Meta increasingly self-build sites, which could leave spec capacity unleased. Goodman's counter is 5GW of secured grid power across 13 cities plus A$75.2 billion of external funds paying management fees as of 31 December 2025, and the AI-replacement read is currently rated unlikely.
Can bigger companies easily copy what Goodman Group does?: Copying the model is difficult. Goodman's moat rests on scarce urban logistics land, secured grid power, and a long-standing tenant and capital-partner network built up across its A$85.6 billion portfolio (as of 30 June 2025) and A$75.2 billion of external funds under management (as of 31 December 2025), none of which a newer or smaller developer can quickly replicate.
What is the biggest thing to watch with Goodman Group going forward?: The key date is August 2026, when full-year results should reveal the pre-leasing percentage on a development pipeline that could exceed A$18 billion in work-in-progress. The same results will confirm whether operating EPS growth for FY26 lands near the roughly 9% level flagged earlier, a useful check on how the data centre push is paying off.
How does Goodman Group compare to its closest peers?: Among comparable global real estate and logistics peers, Goodman stands out for combining logistics and data centre exposure in a way most traditional real estate peers, such as CK Asset and Henderson Land, do not. Its FY2025 operating profit of A$2,311.2 million and A$75.2 billion of external funds under management as of 31 December 2025 reflect a fee-generating platform layered on top of its property portfolio, a combination not shared by most peers in its category.

Timeline

2026-07-13GMG shares fell amid rate-rise doubts tied to its capital-intensive data-centre pivot
2026-04-07Announced 50/50 DataBank JV for 32MW AI/cloud data centre in Vernon, Los Angeles
2026-02-191H FY26 results: operating profit A$1.20bn, WIP guided to exceed A$18bn, 73% data centres
2025-12-31Power bank reached 6.0GW across 16 cities, up from 5.0GW and 13 cities
2025-11-08Reports show data centres driving A$17.5bn of Goodman construction pipeline
2025-06-30FY2025 results: operating profit A$2.31bn up 13%, WIP A$12.9bn with 57% in data centres
2007Renamed Goodman Group after Macquarie Bank exited its stake
1995Listed on ASX as Goodman Hardie Industrial Property Trust
1989Founded as a private industrial property trust in Australia

Head to head

Goodman Group vs Prologis

Revision history

30 July 2026

First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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