WillItSurvive
Manufacturing companies · United States

Goodyear Tire & Rubber

Goodyear makes and sells tires, the last major US-based tire manufacturer left standing.

Losing its protection
Assessed 20 July 2026 · Evidence as of 20 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 20 July 2026 · Checkable from Aug 5, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings release, consensus expects revenue near $4.24B and EPS of -$0.64
The call

Goodyear is cutting costs faster than expected and shrinking debt, but it is still the thinnest-margin player in a three-way race where rivals aren't slowing down.

Goodyear is one of the three biggest tire makers in the world, with factories, decades of know-how, and contracts with car manufacturers that are hard to replace. The problem is that Michelin and Bridgestone, its two main competitors, make the same products just as well and make much more money doing it, earning about five times the profit margin that Goodyear does. Goodyear is trying to cut costs and sell off businesses to catch up, but it is still carrying heavy debt, and the real test will be whether its cost cuts actually lift profits higher or whether the company just keeps losing money while slashing away.

Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. Tires are physical, warranted, regulated products; no AI product replaces manufacturing or selling them. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Michelin and Bridgestone. Both run at 10 to 11 percent margins versus Goodyear's 2 to 3 percent, and nothing stops them from matching Goodyear plant for plant. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.
03
What protects it. 125 years of OEM integrations, 49 plants, and being the only US-based tire maker left, though none of that fixes the margin gap.
What would change this call
Goodyear's Q2 2026 earnings release on August 5, 2026 shows whether operating margin rises or falls from Q1 levels. Margin expansion would show the Forward turnaround is working; further compression would show continued bleeding.
Whether Goodyear announces a permanent CFO hire following Christina Zamarro's mid-2026 departure. A credible permanent hire signals stability; a prolonged interim gap signals financial-leadership uncertainty.
Whether the Fayetteville, NC plant closure and EMEA job cuts proceed on the stated 2027-2028 timeline without new facility closures added. On-schedule execution shows cost cuts are contained; new closures beyond those already announced would show deeper distress.
Key numbers
  • FY2025 net loss of $1.7 billion (2026-02-09)
  • Debt of $6.2B against ~$2B market cap (2026-07-01)
  • Margin 2-3% vs Michelin's 10.5%, Bridgestone's 11% (2026-06-16)
Named risks
  • Heavy debt load of $6.2 billion against a market cap of roughly $2 billion. Severity: high
  • Continued net losses through Q1 2026 with structurally thin margins versus Michelin and Bridgestone. Severity: high
  • CFO departure (Christina Zamarro to DePuy Synthes, mid-2026) during active restructuring. Severity: medium
  • Tariff exposure up to $420 million for full-year 2026 despite litigation and partial refunds. Severity: medium
  • Ongoing plant closures and layoffs (Fayetteville, EMEA, Findlay) risking execution slippage or scope expansion. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Michelinlosing toMichelin's 2025 segment operating margin ~10.5% vs Goodyear's far lower margin, as of Jun 2026
Bridgestonelosing toBridgestone's adjusted operating margin ~11% with net cash balance sheet, cited Jun 16 2026
Continental AGcontestingContinental spinning off ContiTech in 2026 to become pure-play tire maker with ~7-9% global share
Chinese low-cost tire makers (e.g. Zhongce Rubber)losing toCited as undercutting Goodyear on price in market reports through mid-2026
Yokohama Rubbergaining onBought Goodyear's off-the-road tire business for $905 million, closed Feb 2025
Sumitomo Rubbergaining onAcquired Dunlop brand from Goodyear for ~$701 to 735 million, closed May 2025
Questions people ask
Is Goodyear Tire profitable in 2026?
No. Goodyear posted a $1.7 billion net loss for full-year 2025 (driven by a $1.5B deferred tax valuation allowance and $674M goodwill impairment) and a $249 million net loss in Q1 2026, versus a $115M profit a year earlier, per company filings dated February 9, 2026 and May 2026 results.
Who is Goodyear's biggest competitor?
Michelin and Bridgestone. Both outperform Goodyear operationally: Michelin's 2025 segment operating margin was about 10.5% and Bridgestone's about 11%, roughly 4 to 5 times Goodyear's current margin, according to a June 16, 2026 Yahoo Finance analysis.
Could AI replace Goodyear Tire's business?
No. Tire manufacturing is physical, warranted, and regulated, giving AI no path to replace it; Goodyear instead uses AI tools like Salesforce Agentforce (April 2025) and its SightLine sensor suite (CES 2026) to support sales and autonomous-vehicle data, not to substitute for production.
Why is Goodyear Tire stock so low in 2026?
Goodyear shares traded near $6.70 to $7.31 in July 2026, close to a 52-week low of $5.43 and far below its all-time high of $76.75, reflecting $6.2 billion in debt against a market cap of roughly $1.9 to $2.1 billion and continued net losses.
What is the Goodyear Forward plan?
Goodyear Forward is a turnaround launched in November 2023 after Elliott Management took a roughly 10% stake in May 2023. By end-2025 it hit a $1.5 billion annual cost-savings target early and generated $2.2 to $2.3 billion in divestiture proceeds, cutting debt 21% to $6.2 billion.
Is Goodyear still an American company?
Yes. As of mid-2026, Goodyear is described as the last remaining U.S.-based tire manufacturer, a status it held after acquiring Cooper Tire in 2021, though it is closing its Fayetteville, NC plant by the end of 2027.
Timeline
  • 2026-07-16Q2 2026 earnings scheduled for Aug 5; analysts project revenue ~$4.24B, EPS -$0.64
  • 2026-06-30Goodyear removed from S&P MidCap 400 Consumer Discretionary sector index
  • 2026-06-01Goodyear raises $1.05 billion in senior notes, upsized from $750 million offering
  • 2026-05-15Q1 2026 results: revenue $3.88B down 8.7% YoY, net loss $249 million
  • 2026-05-14Up to 1,700 jobs at Fayetteville, NC plant to be cut, closure by end-2027
  • 2026-05-11Deutsche Bank cuts price target from $9 to $7, rates GT Sell
  • 2026-03-20Plan announced to cut ~600 EMEA positions (net ~400), complete by 2028
  • 2026-02-09FY2025 results: $18.3B net sales, $1.7B net loss, 158.7M tire units
  • 2026-02-04WARN filed for Findlay, Ohio Tall Timbers mold facility closure, ~85 jobs
  • 2025-11-01Goodyear Forward hits $1.5B annual cost-savings target ahead of schedule
Revision history
20 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources