WillItSurvive
Retail and consumer conglomerates · China

Haidilao International Holding

haidilao.com ↗

Haidilao runs China's largest hot pot chain, over 1,300 company-owned restaurants plus new franchises.

Defensible for now
Assessed 25 July 2026 · Evidence as of 25 July 2026
Real protection, with named pressure against it.
On the recordSince 25 July 2026 · Checkable from Q3 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: H1 2026 earnings release, testing whether core decline is stabilizing or accelerating
The call

Haidilao stays the biggest name in Chinese hot pot while its core restaurants shrink and it leans on franchising, delivery, and new sub-brands to fill the gap.

Haidilao runs over 1,300 hot pot restaurants across China and has built a loyal customer base of 188 million members through attentive table service and reliable supply chains. The company is hard to copy because of its size, its trained staff culture, and its supply network, but it is losing ground: its restaurant sales fell 7% last year, customers are spending less time at tables, and total sales dropped 3.7% as cheaper competitors like Xiabuxiabu and regional chains steal customers in a market where no single company dominates. The company is trying three new ideas to turn things around, franchising restaurants to others, expanding meal delivery, and launching a burger sub-brand, but none of these have proven they can replace the shrinking core business or regain lost momentum.

Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. Hot pot is a table-side service experience; Haidilao uses AI internally for supply chain and staffing, not to replace servers or diners. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Xiabuxiabu, Banu, Xiaolongkan and other regional hot pot chains. No single giant chases Haidilao; thousands of regional chains are chipping away share as core revenue and turnover both fall. Could a giant copy it? Probably.
03
What protects it. 188 million-plus loyalty members, centralized supply chain scale, and a service reputation still stronger than most rivals.
What would change this call
Haidilao's H1 2026 earnings show whether table turnover stabilizes above or falls below 3.9x/day. Indicates whether core restaurant decline is stabilizing or accelerating.
Franchise store count and per-store profitability disclosed in next two earnings releases. Shows whether the unproven franchise pivot is actually offsetting core shrinkage.
Any new food-safety or hygiene incident reported in Chinese media within 12 months. Would show recurring vulnerability in the trust-based service moat.
Key numbers
  • Core restaurant revenue fell 7.1% YoY (2025-12-31)
  • Table turnover dropped to 3.9x/day from 4.1x (2025-12-31)
  • Net profit down 14.0% YoY to RMB4,041.9m (2025-12-31)
Named risks
  • Core restaurant revenue and table turnover declining for consecutive periods (FY2025 -7.1%, turnover 3.9x). Severity: high
  • Recurring food-safety and hygiene incidents damaging trust-based service brand (2017, February 2025). Severity: high
  • Unproven growth pivots (franchising since 2024, delivery, Huanxianbao since July 2026) may fail to offset core decline. Severity: medium
  • Highly fragmented market (Haidilao ~6% share) limits pricing power and structural protection from erosion. Severity: medium
  • Share price volatility and analyst downgrades signal eroding investor confidence (down ~19.5% YTD, 2026-07-23). Severity: low
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Banu Hot Potgaining onPremium positioning with higher average spend (>RMB140) reported as of 2025-12-27
XiabuxiabucontestingValue-focused rival holding est. 1-1.2% domestic share versus Haidilao's ~6% as of 2026
XiaolongkancontestingRegional chain cited as competitor amid Haidilao's -7.1% core revenue decline, FY2025
Jiumaojiu (Song Hot Pot)contestingNamed rival concept competing in China's fragmented hot pot segment, 2025-2026
Questions people ask
Is Haidilao profitable in 2025?
Yes but profit fell. Haidilao reported FY2025 net profit of RMB4,041.9 million, down 14.0% year over year, on consolidated revenue of RMB43,225.4 million (+1.1% YoY), per its FY2025 annual results dated 2026-03-24. Profitability is intact but margin pressure is rising.
Is Haidilao's core business shrinking?
Yes. Core Haidilao restaurant-operation revenue fell 7.1% YoY in FY2025 (RMB40,397.6m to RMB37,543.0m), table turnover slid from 4.1x to 3.9x per day, and system-wide sales dropped 3.7% for FY2025 and 6.5% in H1 2025, per company filings dated 2026-03-24.
Who owns Haidilao?
Haidilao (HKEX: 6862) is publicly traded, listed via a 2018 Hong Kong IPO that raised roughly US$1 billion. Founder and chairman Zhang Yong remains a major shareholder, holding 2,082,423,681 shares and announcing a voluntary share increase plan on 2026-04-10, per HKEXnews filings.
Could AI replace Haidilao's restaurants?
No. Haidilao is a high-touch, physical dining service; AI (used since 2018 via its Intelligent Kitchen Management System) assists back-of-house prep and inventory, not the tableside service, performances, and brand experience that define its moat. Academic review (2024-03-19) confirms AI augments, not replaces, staff.
Who is Haidilao's biggest competitor?
No single dominant rival exists; China's hot pot market is fragmented. Named competitors include value-focused Xiabuxiabu, premium-positioned Banu, Jiumaojiu's Song Hot Pot, and Xiaolongkan. Haidilao remains the largest branded chain but faces erosion from both value and premium segments as of 2025-2026.
Is Haidilao stock down in 2026?
Yes. Haidilao shares were down approximately 19.5% year-to-date as of 2026-07-23, trading near HK$11.5 versus a 52-week high of HK$17.86 and far below its 2018 IPO-era peak of HK$85.8. Jefferies cut its price target to HK$13.40 (Hold) that same day.
Timeline
  • 2026-07-24Launches Huanxianbao fresh-beef burger sub-brand in Wuhan at RMB19.9
  • 2026-07-23Jefferies cuts price target to HK$13.40 (Hold); stock down ~19.5% YTD
  • 2026-04-10Chairman Zhang Yong announces voluntary shareholding increase plan
  • 2026-03-24FY2025 results: revenue RMB43,225.4m (+1.1%), net profit down 14.0%
  • 2025-08-25H1 2025 interim results: revenue RMB20,703.3m, system sales -6.5%
  • 2025-03-25FY2024 results report membership over 188.7 million cumulative
  • 2025-02Shanghai broth-contamination incident by customers triggers mass refunds
  • 2024-03-05Launches franchise model for first time in company history
  • 2018Hong Kong IPO raises roughly US$1 billion
  • 1994Haidilao founded in Jianyang, Sichuan by Zhang Yong and partners
Revision history
25 July 2026
First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
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