Is Holcim profitable in 2026?

Yes. Holcim posted FY2025 recurring EBIT of CHF 2.876 billion at a record 18.3% margin (Feb 27, 2026), and guides FY2026 recurring EBIT growth of 8 to 10% with free cash flow around CHF 2 billion.

Did Holcim spin off its North American business?

Yes. On June 23, 2025, Holcim completed a 100% spin-off of its North America operations as an independent listed company, Amrize, via a 1:1 dividend-in-kind distribution approved by 99.75% of shareholder votes.

Is Holcim losing ground to Heidelberg Materials on low-carbon cement?

Heidelberg's Brevik CCS facility in Norway went operational in June 2025, already shipping carbon-captured evoZero cement, while Holcim's comparable CCUS projects (Belgium, Poland, Greece, France) target 2027-2032, a real timing gap.

Could AI replace Holcim's business?

No. Holcim's core product is physical cement and concrete tied to quarry permits and kilns. AI is used internally, with 38 large-scale initiatives targeting a CHF 200 million recurring EBIT benefit by 2028, per Holcim's May 26, 2026 disclosure.

Holcim is a publicly traded, widely held Swiss company on the SIX Swiss Exchange (ticker HOLN) with no controlling parent, following its 2015 Lafarge merger and 2021 renaming, and its June 2025 spin-off of Amrize.

Who is Holcim's biggest competitor?

Holcim competes within a stable global oligopoly alongside CRH, Heidelberg Materials, and Cemex; Heidelberg is the notable pressure point, having operationalized carbon-captured cement (evoZero) in June 2025 ahead of Holcim's 2027-2032 CCUS timeline.

Real estate developers · Switzerland

Holcim

holcim.com ↗

Swiss cement and building materials giant, world's largest after Amrize spin-off.

Hard to displace

Assessed 24 July 2026 · Evidence as of 24 July 2026

Strong structural protection; the business model survives ai pressure.

On the recordSince 24 July 2026 · Checkable from September 2027 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: EU CBAM carbon border charges take effect, first payments due

The call

Holcim's plants and permits keep rivals out of its regions, but Heidelberg is already selling low-carbon cement Holcim won't match until the late 2020s.

Holcim is one of the world's largest cement makers, selling a heavy material used in construction that costs too much to ship far, so local quarries and factories matter more than global competition. Cement is hard to replace because you need expensive permits, kilns, and years to build new plants, which keeps the biggest producers like Holcim, CRH, Heidelberg, and Cemex in a stable group rather than one crushing the others. The real threat is not a rival company but a technology gap: Heidelberg Materials started capturing carbon from cement in 2025, while Holcim's carbon-capture projects won't be ready until 2027 or later, and new EU carbon taxes starting in 2026 will make old cement more expensive to sell in Europe. What matters most is whether Holcim can finish its carbon-capture plants on time and at cost.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. AI can't ship cement, it just helps Holcim run kilns and logistics better, targeting CHF 200M EBIT gain by 2028. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: Heidelberg Materials. Heidelberg's Brevik carbon-capture plant is live since June 2025 selling evoZero cement, while Holcim's own CCUS projects land 2027 to 2032. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. Cement is heavy and cheap per ton, so it can't travel far, giving Holcim locked-in regional plants and permits rivals can't easily copy.

What would change this call

Holcim's CCUS projects (Belgium GO4ZERO, Poland Go4ECOPlanet, Greece OLYMPUS) hit or miss 2027-2032 operational dates. Shows whether Holcim closes or widens the low-carbon cement gap versus Heidelberg's live evoZero.
EU CBAM first carbon payments in September 2027 and Holcim's reported cost impact. Reveals whether carbon costs erode Holcim's margin faster than its low-carbon transition offsets.
Holcim H1 2026 results (late July/August) on ECOPact share and CCUS milestone progress. Indicates whether low-carbon product mix and decarbonization plans stay on track.

Key numbers

FY2025 net sales CHF 15.72bn, up 3.0% (2026-02-27)
Recurring EBIT margin hit record 18.3% (2026-02-27)
Low-carbon ECOPlanet cement now 36% of sales (2026-02-27)

Named risks

Multiple CCUS projects (Belgium, Poland, Greece, France) slipping past 2029 while Heidelberg gains low-carbon share. Severity: high
EU CBAM binding carbon costs from Jan 2026, first payments Sept 2027, with possible scope expansion to ~180 products. Severity: medium
Pending regulatory approvals for Xella and Cementos Pacasmayo deals could delay or block closing. Severity: medium
Construction demand cyclicality could pressure 3-5% growth guidance. Severity: medium
Analyst caution on ~21x forward P/E amid EU carbon-trading-rule uncertainty (Jefferies, RBC, Feb 2026). Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Heidelberg Materials	losing to	Brevik CCS operational June 2025 shipping evoZero cement, ahead of Holcim's 2027-2032 CCUS timeline
CRH	contesting	Peer oligopoly competitor, ~$11.1bn Q3 2025 revenue, strong North American position (as of Jan 2026)
Cemex	contesting	Peer major with strong Latin America and US presence, competing in same global cement oligopoly
Amrize	contesting	Spun off from Holcim June 23, 2025 as independent North America competitor, ~$11.7bn 2024 revenue

Questions people ask

Is Holcim profitable in 2026?: Yes. Holcim posted FY2025 recurring EBIT of CHF 2.876 billion at a record 18.3% margin (Feb 27, 2026), and guides FY2026 recurring EBIT growth of 8 to 10% with free cash flow around CHF 2 billion.
Did Holcim spin off its North American business?: Yes. On June 23, 2025, Holcim completed a 100% spin-off of its North America operations as an independent listed company, Amrize, via a 1:1 dividend-in-kind distribution approved by 99.75% of shareholder votes.
Is Holcim losing ground to Heidelberg Materials on low-carbon cement?: Heidelberg's Brevik CCS facility in Norway went operational in June 2025, already shipping carbon-captured evoZero cement, while Holcim's comparable CCUS projects (Belgium, Poland, Greece, France) target 2027-2032, a real timing gap.
Could AI replace Holcim's business?: No. Holcim's core product is physical cement and concrete tied to quarry permits and kilns. AI is used internally, with 38 large-scale initiatives targeting a CHF 200 million recurring EBIT benefit by 2028, per Holcim's May 26, 2026 disclosure.
Who owns Holcim?: Holcim is a publicly traded, widely held Swiss company on the SIX Swiss Exchange (ticker HOLN) with no controlling parent, following its 2015 Lafarge merger and 2021 renaming, and its June 2025 spin-off of Amrize.
Who is Holcim's biggest competitor?: Holcim competes within a stable global oligopoly alongside CRH, Heidelberg Materials, and Cemex; Heidelberg is the notable pressure point, having operationalized carbon-captured cement (evoZero) in June 2025 ahead of Holcim's 2027-2032 CCUS timeline.

Timeline

2026-06-19Holcim completes acquisition of Xella (European walling systems, ~EUR 1.85bn)
2026-05-26Holcim discloses AI program: 38 initiatives, CHF 200m EBIT target by 2028
2026-05-13AGM approves rebased dividend of CHF 1.70/share
2026-02-27FY2025 results: CHF 15.724bn net sales, record 18.3% EBIT margin
2026-01-01EU CBAM definitive phase enters force, binding carbon costs on cement
2025-12Holcim signs deal for 50.01% stake in Cementos Pacasmayo (~$750m)
2025-10-24Holcim signs agreement to acquire Xella
2025-06-23Holcim completes 100% spin-off of North America business as Amrize
2025-06-08Shareholders approve Amrize spin-off with 99.75% of votes
2025-03-28Holcim unveils NextGen Growth 2030 strategy at Investor Day

Revision history

24 July 2026

First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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