WillItSurvive
Manufacturing companies · United States

HP

HP makes PCs and printers, and runs Instant Ink subscriptions that lock in ink buyers.

Protection under test
Assessed 20 July 2026 · Evidence as of 20 July 2026
Something worth protecting exists and is being tested right now.
On the recordSince 20 July 2026 · Checkable from late August 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, first full quarter showing intensified DRAM cost hit
The call

HP still sells more printers and PCs than almost anyone, but Dell is taking US buyers and memory costs are squeezing margins into 2027.

HP makes printers, ink cartridges, and personal computers. It has a strong grip on printer ink sales through its subscription service that locks customers in, but it is losing PC market share to Dell quickly, dropping 21.6 percent in shipments while Dell is gaining. The company is also facing expensive memory chip costs that will squeeze profits through 2027 or 2028, cutting thousands of jobs, and searching for a new permanent leader after its CEO left. Whether the new CEO can stop HP from losing more PC customers to Dell over the next few quarters will decide if HP simply shrinks slowly or faces a bigger problem.

Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. No AI product is displacing HP directly; AI PCs are 44% of shipments now and HP expects 60-70% next fiscal year, feeding demand instead. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Dell. Dell passed HP as the top US PC vendor in Q1 2026 after HP shipments fell 21.6% while Dell grew 1.1%. Could a giant copy it? Probably.
03
What protects it. Instant Ink subscriptions hold about 43.7% of North America ink cartridge share, and enterprise fleet contracts keep printers and PCs locked into HP service deals.
What would change this call
HP names a permanent CEO and reports US PC share vs Dell in next 2-3 quarterly releases. Shows whether leadership change stabilizes or fails to stop share loss to Dell.
HP's Q3/Q4 FY26 earnings show DRAM cost impact on gross margin and EPS guidance. Confirms whether the memory cost shock is worsening or easing as forecast.
Global PC share reports (IDC/Canalys) show whether Lenovo or Dell narrows gap with HP further. Indicates if HP's #2 global position is also eroding, not just in the US.
Key numbers
  • FY2025 revenue $55.3B, up 3.2% YoY (2025-10-31)
  • US PC shipments fell 21.6% YoY in Q1 2026 (2026-Q1)
  • DRAM prices up 100% QoQ, more rises forecast into 2027 (2026-Q2)
Named risks
  • DRAM cost shock (100% QoQ rise) forecast to persist through 2027-2028, pressuring margins. Severity: high
  • Continued US and global PC market share loss to Dell and Lenovo. Severity: high
  • Prolonged leadership vacuum under Interim CEO Bruce Broussard since Feb 2026. Severity: medium
  • Execution risk from 4,000-6,000 job cuts through FY2028 disrupting operations. Severity: medium
  • DRAM price-fixing litigation against Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron filed June 2026 could prolong supply uncertainty. Severity: low
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Delllosing toOvertook HP as #1 US PC vendor Q1 2026; HP shipments -21.6% YoY vs Dell +1.1%
Lenovolosing toGlobal #1 with 24.4% share Q2 2026 vs HP's 19.1%
ApplecontestingHP topped 2025 ACSI PC survey (83) over Apple (82) while Apple grows Mac share
Canon and EpsoncontestingHP still leads laser printer segment at 22.1% share in 2025
Questions people ask
Is HP profitable in 2026?
Yes. HP's Q2 FY26 (ended Apr 30, 2026) revenue rose 9% YoY to $14.41B, non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.86, and it marked the 8th consecutive quarter of top line growth, though DRAM cost shocks are guided to cut H2 FY26 EPS by about $0.30 per share.
Is HP losing to Dell in PCs?
Yes. In Q1 2026 Dell overtook HP as the top US PC vendor after HP's shipments fell 21.6% year over year versus Dell's 1.1% growth, dropping HP to 20.5% US share against Dell's 25%, per Omdia data reported July 2, 2026.
Is HP laying off workers in 2026?
Yes. On November 25, 2025, HP announced a fiscal 2026 plan to cut 4,000 to 6,000 jobs, about 7 to 10 percent of its workforce, by the end of FY2028, explicitly tied to AI adoption and targeting roughly $1B in annual run rate savings.
Who is HP's CEO right now?
Bruce Broussard, former Humana CEO and an HP board member, became Interim CEO on February 3, 2026, after Enrique Lores stepped down as HP CEO to lead PayPal; a permanent CEO search was ongoing as of mid 2026.
Could AI replace HP's workforce?
HP itself says so: its November 25, 2025 restructuring plan to cut 4,000 to 6,000 jobs by FY2028 is explicitly framed as driven by AI adoption across product development, support, sales, and manufacturing, targeting about $1B in annual savings.
Who is HP's biggest competitor?
Two rivals: Dell overtook HP as the #1 US PC vendor in Q1 2026 (HP shipments down 21.6% YoY), while Lenovo remained the global #1 PC vendor with 24.4% share in Q2 2026 versus HP's 19.1%.
Timeline
  • 2026-Q1Dell overtakes HP as #1 US PC vendor; HP shipments fall 21.6% YoY.
  • 2026-06-28HP launches strategic partnership with OpenAI's Frontier platform for customer and internal AI use.
  • 2026-04-30Q2 FY26 revenue hits $14.41B, up 9% YoY; AI PCs reach 44% of shipment mix.
  • 2026-03-24HP Imagine 2026 event unveils HP IQ AI intelligence layer and new LaserJet lines.
  • 2026-02-03CEO Enrique Lores departs for PayPal; Bruce Broussard named Interim CEO.
  • 2025-11-25HP announces plan to cut 4,000 to 6,000 jobs by FY2028, tied to AI adoption.
  • 2025-11-25HP reports FY2025 full year revenue of $55.3B, up 3.2% YoY.
Revision history
20 July 2026
First assessed. Protection under test. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources