Kraken
Kraken is a 15-year-old US crypto exchange offering trading, custody, and payments.
On the record
Checkpoint: IPO pricing decision after March 2026 pause, possibly slipping to 2027
The call
Kraken makes real money and holds licenses that are hard to copy, but Coinbase is chasing the same ground and the IPO gap shows investors aren't fully convinced yet.
Kraken lets people buy, sell, and store cryptocurrency, and makes money from trading fees plus newer services like custody and lending. It has real advantages: government approval (a Federal Reserve master account, derivatives licenses, and a trust charter) that take years to get, but Coinbase, which is larger and already public on regular stock exchanges, can and is building the exact same approvals and services right now. The biggest risk is that Kraken's profit depends heavily on how many people trade crypto and at what prices, and the company is already worth less on the private market (about 13 billion) than what it asked for its IPO (20 billion), which has been delayed and might slip even further into 2027.
Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI agents trade through Kraken's own CLI and APIs, feeding volume rather than replacing the exchange. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Coinbase. Coinbase is larger, already public, and building the same custody, derivatives, and Fed-rails stack in parallel. Could a giant copy it? Probably.
03
What protects it. Hard-to-get licenses like a Fed master account and CFTC derivatives approval, plus 53% non-trading revenue.
What would change this call
Kraken's IPO prices at, above, or below the $20B mark once it finally launches. Shows whether the secondary-market discount to Coinbase and peers closes or worsens.
Non-trading revenue share stays above or falls below 53% through the next reported quarter. Tests whether diversification actually reduces dependence on crypto trading cycles.
Coinbase announces or ships a Fed-rails or regulated-derivatives product matching Kraken's stack. Would show the incumbent closing Kraken's regulatory moat advantage.
Non-trading revenue share stays above or falls below 53% through the next reported quarter. Tests whether diversification actually reduces dependence on crypto trading cycles.
Coinbase announces or ships a Fed-rails or regulated-derivatives product matching Kraken's stack. Would show the incumbent closing Kraken's regulatory moat advantage.
Key numbers
- 2025 adjusted revenue $2.2B, up 33% YoY
- Secondary market values Kraken near $13.3B vs $20B primary
- Q1 2026 revenue $507M
Named risks
- IPO paused since March 2026 with possible slip to 2027 amid falling crypto prices.
- Valuation gap between $20B primary round and ~$13.3B secondary market pricing as of July 2026.
- Revenue and EBITDA remain tied to crypto trading cycles despite 53% non-trading revenue mix.
- CFO Stephanie Lemmerman dismissed in early 2026, adding leadership uncertainty pre-listing.
- Heavy M&A spend (~$2.6-2.7B in about a year) creates integration risk ahead of a downturn.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Coinbase | losing to | Larger, already public, and building comparable Fed rails and derivatives stack in parallel as of 2026 |
| Fidelity and Schwab | contesting | Traditional brokers entering crypto custody and trading, racing to match Kraken's regulatory stack |
| BitGo | gaining on | BitGo shares down 44-45% since its debut as of March 2026, a weaker public comparable to Kraken |
| Binance.US and Gemini | contesting | Direct spot exchange competitors in the US retail crypto trading market through 2026 |
Questions people ask
- Is Kraken profitable in 2026?
- Yes. Kraken parent Payward reported 2025 adjusted revenue of $2.2 billion (up 33% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $531 million (up 26% YoY), per its February 3, 2026 disclosure. Q1 2026 revenue was $507 million, though crypto price weakness has pressured trading volumes since.
- Did Kraken have layoffs in 2026?
- Yes. On May 15, 2026, Payward cut about 150 jobs, roughly 5% of its ~3,000 staff, calling it an optimization effort tied to AI deployment ahead of a planned IPO. This followed a much larger 30% staff cut during the 2022-23 crypto winter.
- Will AI replace Kraken's exchange business?
- No. AI is automating support, due diligence, and portfolio guidance at Kraken, including a May 2026 150-job cut tied to AI efficiency, but core moats like its Fed master account, CFTC-regulated derivatives stack via Bitnomial, and custody licenses cannot be replicated by AI models alone.
- Is Kraken going public and when?
- Kraken filed a confidential draft S-1 on November 19, 2025 targeting Q1 2026, but paused the IPO on March 18, 2026 citing weak crypto markets. As of June 24, 2026, Bloomberg reported the listing may slip to 2027 given falling crypto prices.
- How does Kraken's valuation compare across funding rounds?
- Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation on November 18, 2025, but a Deutsche Borse secondary stake purchase in April 2026 implied only $13.3 billion, and Forge secondary market shares priced at $29.68 as of July 19, 2026 still implied roughly $13.3 billion, well below the primary mark.
- Who is Kraken's biggest competitor?
- Coinbase, the largest US-listed crypto exchange, is Kraken's closest and largest rival, already public and building comparable custody and derivatives infrastructure in parallel. Other peers include Gemini, Binance.US, Robinhood, and Crypto.com.
Timeline
- 2026-07-09Payward closes Bitnomial acquisition, completing a full CFTC-regulated US derivatives stack
- 2026-07-07Payward wins $22M arbitration award against former auditor Mazars USA, seeks court enforcement
- 2026-06-24Bloomberg reports Kraken IPO may slip to 2027 amid falling crypto prices
- 2026-05-15Payward cuts about 150 jobs (5% of staff) tied to AI efficiency ahead of planned IPO
- 2026-05-07Payward agrees to buy Reap Technologies for up to $600M for stablecoin payment rails
- 2026-04-14Deutsche Borse buys 1.5% secondary stake for $200M, implying ~$13.3B valuation
- 2026-03-18Kraken pauses IPO due to weak crypto market conditions
- 2026-02-03Payward reports 2025 adjusted revenue of $2.2B, up 33% YoY
- 2025-11-19Payward confidentially files draft S-1 with SEC, initially targeting Q1 2026
- 2025-11-18Kraken raises $800M total ($600M primary plus $200M from Citadel Securities) at $20B valuation
Revision history
21 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Crypto Exchange Kraken Says Revenue More Than Doubled Last Year (2025-01-31)
- Kraken parent Payward reports $2.2 billion adjusted 2025 revenue... (2026-02-03)
- Digital Assets Exchange Kraken Reports $2.2B In Revenue In Past Year (2026-02-04)
- Kraken revenue, valuation & funding (2026-04-13)
- Kraken (cryptocurrency exchange)
- Kraken Scores $800M Raise Backed by $200M Citadel Securities Investment (2025-11-18)
- Exclusive: Crypto exchange Kraken raises $200 million... (2025-11-18)
- Crypto exchange Kraken valued at $20 billion in latest funding round (2025-11-18)
- Kraken confirms confidential IPO application despite valuation decline (2026-04-14)
- Crypto platform Kraken is raising capital at $20 billion valuation ahead of its planned IPO (2026-05-11)
- Invest and Sell Kraken Stock (2026-07-19)
- Payward, parent of crypto exchange Kraken, has put its IPO plans on hold (2026-03-18)