WillItSurvive
Government and public sector tech · United States

LMI

lmi.org ↗

US consulting firm doing logistics, supply chain, and ops analytics for federal agencies.

Defensible for now
Assessed 25 July 2026 · Evidence as of 25 July 2026
Real protection, with named pressure against it.
On the recordSince 25 July 2026 · Checkable from 2029 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: CBP contract recompete ($172M)
The call

LMI holds its federal logistics work through clearances and incumbency, but recompetes and agency AI tools like ai.mil test how long that lasts.

LMI provides data analysis and IT services to U.S. government agencies like Customs and Border Protection. It is hard to replace quickly because employees need security clearances, agencies prefer contractors they already work with, and LMI has signed work through 2030. However, the government is looking at ways to cut consulting spending, and new AI tools from the Department of Defense and Lockheed Martin could do some of the work LMI does today, especially routine dashboards and reports. The key question is whether the government decides to hire its own staff or use AI instead of renewing contracts when they expire in 2029 and 2030.

Why
01
AI pressure: DoD's ai.mil portal (Gemini, Grok) and Lockheed Martin AI Combat ID tools. Government-run AI platforms could absorb the dashboarding and analytics work LMI now bills hourly for. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.
02
Bigger players: Booz Allen Hamilton, Leidos, SAIC. Bigger primes already compete for the same federal logistics work and can outbid LMI at recompete time. Could a giant copy it? Probably.
03
What protects it. Security clearances, entrenched government platforms, and multi-year contract backlog running through 2030.
What would change this call
Outcome of LMI's CBP contract recompete (worth $172M) due around 2029. Would show whether a larger prime like Leidos or SAIC can displace LMI's incumbency.
Outcome of LMI's OUSD contract recompete (worth $116.7M) due around 2030. Would show whether agencies shift analytics work in-house via ai.mil instead of recompeting with LMI.
GSA/DOGE decisions on the $94B flagged unexercised federal consulting ceilings affecting LMI's contract vehicles. Would show whether sector-wide federal consulting cuts shrink LMI's task-order base.
Key numbers
  • $449.3M revenue, ranked #69 federal contractor (2026-07-13)
  • $94B in unexercised federal consulting ceilings flagged (2025-03)
  • Sold to PE consortium (Declaration Partners, others) (2022-07-17)
Named risks
  • DOGE and GSA scrutiny of federal consulting spend, $94B in unexercised ceilings flagged March 2025. Severity: high
  • Recompete exposure on major contracts including CBP (2029) and OUSD (2030). Severity: medium
  • Agencies gaining direct frontier-model access via ai.mil, reducing demand for contractor-built analytics. Severity: medium
  • PE ownership structure could drive further cost-cutting or workforce reductions. Severity: low
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Leidoslosing toLeidos ranked #1 with $11.8B in 2026 federal contracts vs LMI's #69 at $449.3M
Booz Allen Hamiltonlosing toRanked #2 with $9.3B in 2026, far ahead of LMI on scale
SAICcontestingAdjacent capability overlap; not structurally barred from LMI contracts but no displacement reported as of mid-2026
Lockheed MartincontestingF-35 AI Combat ID flight test, Feb 2026, signals primes building in-house AI that could erode analytics contracting
Questions people ask
Is LMI profitable in 2026?
LMI is privately held with no public GAAP financials, but Washington Technology's federal contractor rankings show revenue rising from $342.9M in 2024 to $449.3M in 2026, ranked #69, suggesting consistent top line growth rather than confirmed net profitability.
Who owns LMI Consulting?
Since July 2022, LMI Consulting LLC has been owned by a private equity consortium: Declaration Partners (backed by David Rubenstein's family office), Capitol Meridian Partners, and 22C Capital, after the original nonprofit sold its for-profit subsidiary.
Could AI replace LMI's federal consulting work?
AI could erode LMI's lower-value analytics and dashboarding work, especially as DoD's ai.mil portal gave agencies direct access to Gemini and Grok at IL-5+ classification. But cleared personnel, incumbency, and government-owned platforms like SCREEn protect LMI's core work through at least 2030.
Who is LMI's biggest competitor?
LMI (#69, $449.3M in 2026 federal rankings) trails giants like Leidos (#1, $11.8B) and Booz Allen Hamilton (#2, $9.3B), plus SAIC. These primes aren't structurally barred from LMI's contracts but haven't displaced it at recompete as of mid-2026.
Did LMI have layoffs in 2026?
Yes. A Washington Technology report dated July 23, 2026 described a workforce reduction of under 1% of staff, targeting indirect positions, as part of an efficiency reshuffle following the January 2026 CEO transition.
What is LMI's revenue in 2026?
Per Washington Technology's Top 100 federal contractor ranking published July 13, 2026, LMI reported $449.3 million in federal contract revenue ($254.5M defense, $194.9M civilian), ranking #69, up from #73 the prior year.
Timeline
  • 2026-05LMI awarded $172M Customs and Border Protection contract
  • 2026-01-01Josh Wilson becomes CEO, Doug Wagoner becomes board chairman
  • 2026-01LMI reports under 1% workforce reduction in indirect positions
  • 2025-10-02LMI announces Wilson will succeed Wagoner as CEO
  • 2025-08LMI wins $34.4M VA TAC New Jersey and $13.5M Marine Corps contracts
  • 2025-07Army awards LMI $37.99M Enterprise Business Systems order; OUSD contract reaches $116.7M cumulative
  • 2025-01-16CMS awards LMI Tier II Policy Help Desk contract
  • 2024-09CMS awards LMI $47.5M Issuer Management Operations contract
  • 2024-08-22LMI wins DoD SCREEn supply chain risk contract, about $43-44M
  • 2022-07-17LMI's for-profit subsidiary sold to Declaration Partners, Capitol Meridian, 22C Capital
Revision history
25 July 2026
First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
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