Lowe's
Lowe's runs 1,759 big-box stores selling home improvement goods to DIY and Pro customers.
On the record
Checkpoint: Q2 FY2026 earnings, first full quarter to show FBM/ADG Pro-segment comps against Home Depot's Pro push
The call
Lowe's keeps growing sales and paying dividends while Home Depot pulls further ahead in Pro distribution, a gap Lowe's is trying to close with FBM and ADG.
Lowe's operates a network of home-improvement stores across the US, selling everything from tools to lumber to contractors and everyday customers. It is hard to replace because it owns thousands of physical locations, runs its own delivery system for heavy items, and has spent decades building relationships with professional contractors who depend on it. Home Depot is bigger and has been winning Pro customers faster by buying specialist distributors, so the question is whether Lowe's can convert its own recent acquisitions into the same kind of loyalty before the gap widens further.
Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI tools sit inside Lowe's own operations and stores; no AI product sells lumber, appliances, or Pro delivery instead of Lowe's. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Home Depot. Home Depot holds 51% of US home improvement share and is scaling Pro distribution via SRS and GMS deals, well ahead of Lowe's FBM and ADG buys. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. 1,759 stores, heavy-goods logistics, and Pro relationships built over decades that no app or warehouse-only rival has replicated.
What would change this call
Lowe's Q2 FY2026 earnings release, expected August 2026, including Pro-segment comparable sales. Shows whether Home Depot's Pro-distribution lead is widening or Lowe's FBM/ADG deals are closing the gap.
Home Depot reports SRS plus GMS integration results and Pro comparable sales in its next two quarterly earnings. Indicates whether Home Depot's Pro-distribution share gains are accelerating relative to Lowe's.
Resolution of the July 2026 tariff-refund investigation and WARN Act inquiry into the Mooresville layoffs. Would show whether cost or legal pressures are forcing Lowe's to cut spending on Pro-segment growth.
Home Depot reports SRS plus GMS integration results and Pro comparable sales in its next two quarterly earnings. Indicates whether Home Depot's Pro-distribution share gains are accelerating relative to Lowe's.
Resolution of the July 2026 tariff-refund investigation and WARN Act inquiry into the Mooresville layoffs. Would show whether cost or legal pressures are forcing Lowe's to cut spending on Pro-segment growth.
Key numbers
- Q1 FY2026 sales $23.1B, up 10.3% YoY
- FY2026 guidance: sales $92-94B, EPS $12.25-12.75
- Home Depot holds 51% US share vs Lowe's 28.8%
Named risks
- Home Depot's Pro-distribution buildout (SRS+GMS) outspending and outpacing Lowe's FBM/ADG integration.
- Housing macro softness: elevated rates and muted turnover capping discretionary project spend into FY2026.
- Multiple active legal exposures: tariff-refund investigation, WARN Act probe, delivery-fee class action, battery-tool recall suit.
- FBM/ADG integration costs and execution risk, with $96M in Q1 FY2026 acquisition charges already recognized.
- Workforce data discrepancy between company 10-K (276,000) and third-party estimate (226,595) creates uncertainty on true headcount trend.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Home Depot | losing to | HD holds ~51% US home-improvement share vs Lowe's ~28.8%, per 2026 industry SWOT estimate |
| Home Depot | contesting | Lowe's leads major appliances 43.5% unit share vs HD's 38.1% in Q4 2025 per OpenBrand |
| Home Depot | losing to | HD's SRS ($18.25B, June 2024) plus GMS ($5.5B, Sept 2025) Pro-distribution spend outpaces Lowe's FBM+ADG $10.1B combined |
| Menards | gaining on | Lowe's remains second-largest US home improvement chain, ahead of third-ranked Menards, per company profile as of 2026-07-20 |
| Amazon/Walmart/Costco | gaining on | Lowe's retains appliance-category leadership over cross-category retailers per Q4 2025 OpenBrand data |
Questions people ask
- Is Lowe's profitable in 2026?
- Yes. Lowe's reported Q1 FY2026 (quarter ended May 1, 2026) net earnings of $1.6 billion on sales of $23.08-23.1 billion, up 10.3% year over year, with diluted EPS of $2.90 and adjusted EPS of $3.03, per its May 20, 2026 earnings release.
- Who is Lowe's biggest competitor?
- Home Depot. One industry SWOT estimate puts Home Depot at roughly 51% US home-improvement retail share versus Lowe's approximately 28.8%, though Lowe's leads specifically in major appliances with 43.5% unit share in Q4 2025 versus Home Depot's 38.1%, per OpenBrand data from May 2026.
- Could AI replace Lowe's employees or the company itself?
- Unlikely to replace the business model. Lowe's deploys AI tools like Mylow (customer-facing, launched March 2025) and Mylow Companion (associate-facing, deployed May 5, 2025 to all 1,700+ stores) atop its own physical stores and proprietary data, using AI as a productivity layer rather than a substitute for its 1,759-store logistics footprint.
- Is Lowe's laying off workers in 2026?
- Yes, in part. Lowe's notified North Carolina officials on February 13, 2026 of a mass layoff affecting 178 employees at Mooresville facilities, which triggered a WARN Act investigation, even as company 10-K figures show total headcount rising 2.2% to 276,000 as of January 30, 2026.
- Is Lowe's a safe company to join in 2026?
- Lowe's is a financially stable, dividend-paying incumbent that has raised its dividend annually for over 25 years and posted four consecutive quarters of positive comparable sales through Q1 FY2026, though it faces active litigation including a July 2026 tariff-refund investigation and a February 2026 delivery-fee class action.
- What is Lowe's market cap and stock price in 2026?
- Lowe's had a market capitalization of approximately $117 billion and a share price of about $204.56 as of July 20, 2026, according to GuruFocus data.
Timeline
- 2026-07-16Products-liability class action filed over fire-prone lithium-ion battery yard tools tied to a recall
- 2026-07-15Law firm opens investigation into Lowe's tariff-refund practices on imports from Feb 2025-Feb 2026
- 2026-05-20Lowe's reports Q1 FY2026: $23.08-23.1B sales, +10.3% YoY, $1.6B net earnings, fourth straight positive comp quarter
- 2026-02-24Class action filed alleging deceptive 'free delivery' fee practices
- 2026-02-13Lowe's notifies NC officials of 178-employee mass layoff at Mooresville facilities
- 2025-10-09Lowe's closes ~$8.8B acquisition of Foundation Building Materials, financed with $9.0B bridge loan
- 2025-06-02Lowe's completes $1.325B acquisition of Artisan Design Group
- 2025-05-05Lowe's deploys Mylow Companion AI assistant to associates across all 1,700+ stores
- 2025-04-14Lowe's announces ADG acquisition and expanded $250M Lowe's Foundation tradesperson training investment
- 2025-03Lowe's launches Mylow, a GPT-4o powered generative AI shopping advisor built with OpenAI
Revision history
20 July 2026
First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Lowe's Reports First Quarter 2026 Sales and Earnings Results (2026-05-20)
- LOW Q1 CY2026 Sales Top Estimates (2026-05-20)
- Lowe's Fact Sheet 2025 (2025-04)
- US Major Appliance Market Share (2026-05-08)
- Lowe's Completes Acquisition of Artisan Design Group (2025-06-02)
- Lowe's Completes Acquisition of Foundation Building Materials (2025-10-09)
- GuruFocus (2026-07-20)
- Lowe's Companies (LOW) Number of Employees 1994-2026 (2026-07-14)
- Lowe's Number of Employees 2026 (2026-06-29)
- Lowe's (Mooresville) WARN Act Investigation (2026-02-17)
- Lowe's Deploys First At-Scale AI Assistant for Retail Associates (2025-05-05)
- The Sterling Group Agrees to Sell ADG (2025-04-14)