Milk Makeup
US makeup brand known for Hydro Grip Primer, owned by Waldencast, now shrinking and single-brand after the Obagi sale.
On the record
Checkpoint: Q3 2026 earnings, first standalone-Milk results after Obagi sale closes and warrant deadline nears
The call
Milk Makeup is now a single, shrinking brand inside a struggling parent, copied by cheaper rivals and squeezed by retailer AI tools that favor no one by name.
Milk Makeup makes trendy cosmetics, especially primers, that were popular a few years ago. But competitors like e.l.f. are now selling nearly identical products for much less money, and younger shoppers have moved on to other brands like Rhode and Rare Beauty. What made Milk special was being first and cool, but now that's fading fast. The big question: can the brand stop losing sales by late 2026, or is it in permanent decline?
Why
01
AI pressure: Sephora Virtual Artist, Amazon AI foundation try-on, Amorepacific WANNA-BEAUTY. Retailer AI try-on tools push shoppers to whatever product ranks best on screen, not to Milk by name, flattening its shelf edge. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.
02
Bigger players: e.l.f. Cosmetics Power Grip Primer, plus L'Oreal, Estee Lauder, and LVMH prestige brands. e.l.f. sells a cheaper dupe of Milk's flagship primer while giants run dozens of rival prestige lines with more shelf and ad muscle. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.
03
What protects it. Some loyal Gen Z buyers and Ulta placement still give Milk real shelf space, but nothing stops copying or delisting.
What would change this call
Milk Makeup US revenue for Q3 and Q4 2026, ex-Ulta launch effects. Shows whether the sales decline is stabilizing or still accelerating.
Outcome of the Nov 17, 2026 warrant/credit-facility deadline. Shows whether Waldencast must dilute shareholders or renegotiate debt terms.
Whether a buyer (L'Oreal, Estee Lauder, or a PE firm) bids for Waldencast or Milk after the Obagi sale closes. Shows whether strategic acquirers see value in Milk as a standalone brand.
Outcome of the Nov 17, 2026 warrant/credit-facility deadline. Shows whether Waldencast must dilute shareholders or renegotiate debt terms.
Whether a buyer (L'Oreal, Estee Lauder, or a PE firm) bids for Waldencast or Milk after the Obagi sale closes. Shows whether strategic acquirers see value in Milk as a standalone brand.
Key numbers
- FY2025 revenue $110.4 million, down 11.4%
- Q3 2025 revenue fell about 20% year over year
- Waldencast FY2025 net loss $248.1 million
Named risks
- Accelerating revenue decline, Q3 2025 down about 20% YoY versus FY2025 full-year decline of 11.4%.
- No FY2026 financial guidance issued as of March 2026 amid ongoing strategic uncertainty.
- Credit facility warrant-issuance deadline on November 17, 2026 could trigger dilution.
- Loss of cultural relevance to celebrity-founded brands like Rhode and Rare Beauty.
- Single-brand concentration risk for Waldencast once Obagi Medical divestiture closes.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| e.l.f. Cosmetics | gaining on | Cheaper Power Grip Primer directly compared to Milk's Hydro Grip Primer in reviews as of 2026-07-17 |
| Rare Beauty | gaining on | Cited by Puck News (2025-12-04) as taking cultural share from Milk Makeup among younger shoppers |
| Rhode | gaining on | Named alongside Rare Beauty and Summer Fridays as capturing Milk's audience per Puck News, 2025-12-04 |
| Summer Fridays | gaining on | Cited by independent trade press as pulling shelf attention from Milk Makeup as of December 2025 |
| Sephora and Ulta Beauty | contesting | Control Milk's primary retail channels and shelf terms; Milk added Ulta in spring 2025 ending exclusivity |
| Amazon | contesting | Investing in platform-level AR try-on tech feeding its own Premium Beauty storefront where Milk launched Q2 2025 |
Questions people ask
- Is Milk Makeup profitable?
- Milk Makeup posted FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA of $15.2 million on net revenue of $110.4 million, down 11.4% year over year as of 2025-12-31. Parent Waldencast posted an overall net loss of $248.1 million for FY2025 due to goodwill impairments at both Obagi and Milk.
- Who owns Milk Makeup?
- Milk Makeup is owned by publicly traded Waldencast plc (NASDAQ: WALD), formed via a 2021 SPAC deal that closed in June 2022. As of June 2026, Waldencast agreed to sell its other brand Obagi Medical, making Milk its sole operating brand.
- Is Milk Makeup losing to e.l.f. Cosmetics?
- Independent reviews, including one dated 2026-07-17 from HuffPost, compare e.l.f.'s cheaper Power Grip Primer favorably against Milk Makeup's flagship Hydro Grip Primer, putting price pressure on Milk's hero product.
- Could AI replace Milk Makeup?
- Physical cosmetics are not directly replaced by AI, but shade-matching and virtual try-on tools like Sephora's Virtual Artist, Amazon's try-on features, and Amorepacific's WANNA-BEAUTY AI (CES 2025 Innovation Award, January 2025) are built by retailers, not Milk, ceding tech differentiation upstream.
- Who is Milk Makeup's biggest competitor?
- Independent reporting from Puck News (December 4, 2025) names Rhode, Rare Beauty, and Summer Fridays as brands taking cultural share from Milk Makeup, while e.l.f. Cosmetics undercuts it on price with its Power Grip Primer dupe.
- What happens to Milk Makeup after the Obagi sale?
- Waldencast agreed in June 2026 to sell its Obagi Medical business to Bridgepoint for up to $460 million, with the deal expected to close in Q3 2026, leaving Milk Makeup as Waldencast's sole operating brand going forward.
Timeline
- 2026-07-06Warrant-issuance deadline on credit facility pushed from July 1, 2026 to November 17, 2026
- 2026-06-01Waldencast agrees to sell Obagi Medical to Bridgepoint for up to $460 million
- 2026-03-13Waldencast reports FY2025 group revenue $272.1M and net loss $248.1M, no FY26 guidance
- 2025-12-31Milk Makeup FY2025 net revenue $110.4M, down 11.4% year over year
- 2025-11-01Mazdack Rassi appointed President of Milk Makeup
- 2025-09-30Milk Makeup Q3 2025 revenue falls approximately 20% year over year
- 2025-08-01Waldencast board announces comprehensive strategic review advised by Lazard
- 2025-03-01Milk Makeup launches at Ulta Beauty in 600+ stores, ending Sephora exclusivity
- 2022-06-01Waldencast SPAC merger with Milk Makeup and Obagi closes
- 2016-02-01Milk Makeup founded out of Milk Studios in New York City
Revision history
23 July 2026
First assessed. Little protection left. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Waldencast Obagi Medical sale document (2026-05-31)
- Why Milk Makeup Lost Its Cool (And Can't Get It Back) (2025-12-04)
- Waldencast 2025 results: $272M sales, $248M loss (2026-03-13)
- Waldencast Reports Q4 2025 and FY 2025 Financial Results (2026-03-13)
- Waldencast plc 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K Forms (2026-06-26)
- Waldencast offloads Obagi Medical for $460 million to focus on Milk Makeup
- gurufocus.com (2026-07-23)
- Milk Makeup to Launch at Ulta Beauty This Spring (2025-01-28)
- Milk Makeup (2025-11-25)
- Amorepacific Named CES 2025 Innovation Award Honoree (2025-09-08)
- Rare Beauty, e.l.f., Sol de Janeiro (2026-06-23)