Is National Grid profitable in 2026?

Yes. National Grid reported statutory IFRS earnings of £3,241m for the year ended 31 March 2026, up 15% year on year, alongside cash flow from continuing operations of £7.9bn, up £0.9bn versus the prior year.

Could AI replace National Grid?

No. National Grid's moat is physical wires, transformers and exclusive regulatory licenses that AI cannot substitute. AI is instead a demand tailwind, with the company deploying tools like the Air Space Intelligence partnership (May 2026) to manage grid operations, not to replace its network.

Who is National Grid's biggest competitor?

National Grid holds exclusive regulated territories, so it has no direct market competitor. Nearest UK peers are SSE (SSEN Transmission) and ScottishPower's SP Energy Networks, both also operating under Ofgem's RIIO-3 price controls set in December 2025.

Who owns National Grid plc?

National Grid plc is publicly traded with no controlling shareholder, primary listed on the London Stock Exchange (NG.) and secondary listed as an ADR on NYSE (NGG). It raised roughly £7bn via a rights issue in May 2024 to fund network investment.

Is National Grid facing layoffs in 2026?

No layoffs are evident; the opposite trend is reported. Filings show headcount rose to 33,026 at 31 March 2026 from 31,654 a year earlier, consistent with the ramp-up in grid capital investment under new CEO Zoë Yujnovich.

What is National Grid's biggest risk?

The main risk is regulatory, not competitive: a hostile RIIO price-control settlement or tightened cost-of-capital assumptions could squeeze allowed returns, alongside execution risk on the newly expanded £70bn capex plan through FY2031 announced March 2026.

Oil and gas companies · United Kingdom

National Grid plc

nationalgrid.com ↗

Owns and runs licensed high-voltage grid and gas networks across Great Britain and the US Northeast.

Hard to displace

Assessed 26 July 2026 · Evidence as of 26 July 2026

Strong structural protection; the business model survives ai pressure.

On the recordSince 26 July 2026 · Checkable from June 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: FERC ruling on data-center connection cost allocation

The call

National Grid's revenue comes from regulators setting allowed returns on its wires and pipes, not from competing for customers, so AI and rival companies mostly change the pace of investment, not the business's survival.

National Grid owns and operates the physical poles, wires, and transformers that deliver electricity to homes and businesses in England, Wales, and parts of the northeastern United States. No company can build a rival network in these areas because the government has given National Grid the exclusive right to do so, and the cost of building duplicate infrastructure would be astronomically high. The one thing that could change the picture is if regulators decide to pay the company less for its service than it expects, or if National Grid stumbles while spending 70 billion pounds over five years to upgrade its aging equipment.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. AI data centers are driving new electricity demand and grid connection requests, feeding growth rather than threatening the network business. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: Hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google) signing direct nuclear or gas power deals. Big tech firms building private generation to skip grid connection queues could slow future demand growth on National Grid's US networks. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. Exclusive government-granted transmission and distribution licenses mean no company can legally build a competing wire or pipe network.

What would change this call

Ofgem's RIIO-ED3 distribution price-control business plan outcome, due end-2026. Shows whether regulators tighten allowed returns on National Grid's UK networks.
FERC orders and state PUC rulings on data-center connection-cost allocation, mid-2026. Shows whether US data-center demand economics shift against National Grid's Northeast utilities.
Progress and cost run-rate of the £70bn five-year capex program in FY26/27 results. Shows whether National Grid can execute its build-out without regulatory or funding strain.

Key numbers

FY25/26 IFRS earnings £3,241m, up 15% YoY (2026-03-31)
H1 FY25/26 capital investment £5,052m, +10% (2025-09-30)
FY25/26 cash flow from operations £7.9bn (2026-03-31)

Named risks

RIIO-3 or future price-control settlements could cut allowed returns below EPS CAGR assumptions. Severity: high
Execution risk on expanded £70bn five-year capital investment plan through FY2031. Severity: medium
US data-center cost-allocation politics (23-governor pledge, FERC orders) could shift connection economics against utilities. Severity: medium
Grid reliability stress from surging AI data-center demand could trigger new federal or state rules affecting connection revenue. Severity: medium
Joulent $1.75bn data-center infrastructure bet is a higher-risk venture-style investment for a regulated utility. Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
SSE plc	contesting	Accepted Ofgem RIIO-T3 Final Determination alongside National Grid, Dec 2025
ScottishPower / SP Energy Networks	contesting	Owns SP Transmission, the other GB transmission license holder alongside National Grid
NESO (National Energy System Operator)	losing to	National Grid sold its GB system-operator function to the UK government for £630m, Oct 2024
Eversource Energy, Con Edison, Avangrid	contesting	Comparable regulated Northeast US utilities operating adjacent to National Grid's NY/MA territories

Questions people ask

Is National Grid profitable in 2026?: Yes. National Grid reported statutory IFRS earnings of £3,241m for the year ended 31 March 2026, up 15% year on year, alongside cash flow from continuing operations of £7.9bn, up £0.9bn versus the prior year.
Could AI replace National Grid?: No. National Grid's moat is physical wires, transformers and exclusive regulatory licenses that AI cannot substitute. AI is instead a demand tailwind, with the company deploying tools like the Air Space Intelligence partnership (May 2026) to manage grid operations, not to replace its network.
Who is National Grid's biggest competitor?: National Grid holds exclusive regulated territories, so it has no direct market competitor. Nearest UK peers are SSE (SSEN Transmission) and ScottishPower's SP Energy Networks, both also operating under Ofgem's RIIO-3 price controls set in December 2025.
Who owns National Grid plc?: National Grid plc is publicly traded with no controlling shareholder, primary listed on the London Stock Exchange (NG.) and secondary listed as an ADR on NYSE (NGG). It raised roughly £7bn via a rights issue in May 2024 to fund network investment.
Is National Grid facing layoffs in 2026?: No layoffs are evident; the opposite trend is reported. Filings show headcount rose to 33,026 at 31 March 2026 from 31,654 a year earlier, consistent with the ramp-up in grid capital investment under new CEO Zoë Yujnovich.
What is National Grid's biggest risk?: The main risk is regulatory, not competitive: a hostile RIIO price-control settlement or tightened cost-of-capital assumptions could squeeze allowed returns, alongside execution risk on the newly expanded £70bn capex plan through FY2031 announced March 2026.

Timeline

2026-07-2623 US governors sign ratepayer protection pledge on data center connection costs
2026-06-30Keen AI and National Grid awarded £355,985 Ofgem grant for AI asset-inspection model
2026-05-06National Grid and Air Space Intelligence announce AI grid-operations partnership
2026-03-25GridCARE and National Grid partner on AI-assisted data-center grid connections
2026-03-02National Grid expands five-year investment plan by £10bn to at least £70bn
2026-03National Grid Ventures invests $1.75bn for 35% stake in Joulent
2025-12-04Ofgem publishes RIIO-3 Final Determinations for 2026-2031 price controls
2025-11-17Zoë Yujnovich becomes CEO, succeeding John Pettigrew
2024-10-01National Grid sells GB system-operator function to UK government, forming NESO
2024-05-23National Grid launches ~£7bn rights issue and £60bn five-year capex framework

Revision history

26 July 2026

First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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