National University
Nonprofit university serving adult, military, and credential-seeking students.
On the record
Checkpoint: Next Form 990 filing covering FY ending June 2026, showing whether 36% revenue growth holds
The call
National University is growing fast off a small base while carrying an unresolved faculty-firing sanction and heavy dependence on military and federal aid policy.
National University is an accredited nonprofit college that specializes in teacher training in California, serving military students, and offering programs that lead to professional licenses. It grew fast (36% last year), but faces real threats: much bigger rivals like Southern New Hampshire University and Western Governors University have way more students and resources, and artificial intelligence is starting to replace some entry-level college credentials and tutoring services that schools like National rely on. The biggest wildcard is whether the school can keep growing at this pace while depending so heavily on military students (half its undergrads) and while carrying the damage from firing many professors in 2021 without financial crisis to justify it, a move that regulators flagged and that still makes some educators skeptical of the school's values.
Why
01
AI pressure: AI-driven credentialing tools like Google Career Certificates and AI tutoring apps. AI-based shortcuts to entry-level credentials could shrink demand for the licensure-track programs National University depends on. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Southern New Hampshire University and Western Governors University. Both run online adult-learner degree models at far greater scale, competing directly for the same working-adult students. Could a giant copy it? Probably.
03
What protects it. California teacher credentialing niche, military tuition-assistance distribution, and nonprofit accreditation trust.
What would change this call
National University's Form 990 for FY ending June 2026, filed around May 2027, shows revenue growth continuing or reversing. Would confirm whether the 36% FY24-25 revenue surge is a durable trend or a one-time spike.
Any federal action narrowing Title IV eligibility or military tuition-assistance rules before the 2027 fiscal cycle. Would directly threaten roughly half of undergraduate enrollment tied to military-affiliated funding.
Public update on the 2021 AAUP sanction status, including whether it is lifted or escalated toward accreditation review. Would show whether the unresolved faculty-governance dispute is resolving or deepening.
Any federal action narrowing Title IV eligibility or military tuition-assistance rules before the 2027 fiscal cycle. Would directly threaten roughly half of undergraduate enrollment tied to military-affiliated funding.
Public update on the 2021 AAUP sanction status, including whether it is lifted or escalated toward accreditation review. Would show whether the unresolved faculty-governance dispute is resolving or deepening.
Key numbers
- FY25 revenue $544.2M, up 36% YoY
- 22,115 total enrollment (IPEDS)
- 245K-250K alumni
Named risks
- AAUP sanction from June 2021 for mass faculty firings remains unresolved as of 2026, ongoing governance/reputational exposure.
- Roughly 50% of undergraduates are military-affiliated, creating heavy dependency on Title IV and military TA policy.
- Sub-scale positioning versus SNHU (~200K) and WGU (~150K) in the same working-adult online segment.
- AI-driven demand compression in entry-level credentialing pathways, acknowledged by NU leadership in July 2026.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Southern New Hampshire University | losing to | SNHU reportedly serves ~200,000 online students vs NU's ~22,115 IPEDS-reported (2024-2025), vendor-claimed scale gap |
| Western Governors University | losing to | WGU reportedly enrolls ~150,000 competency-based students, vendor-claimed, far exceeding NU's reported enrollment |
| Arizona State University Online | contesting | ASU Online cited as large-scale national recruitment competitor in same working-adult online segment as of March 2026 |
| Grand Canyon University | contesting | GCU ranked 392-434 of 436 by US News (2025) yet operates at large scale in overlapping for-profit-adjacent adult market |
Questions people ask
- Is National University profitable?
- As a 501(c)(3) nonprofit since April 1972, National University does not report profit in the traditional sense, but its Form 990 shows total revenue grew from about $400.2 million (FY ending June 2024) to about $544.2 million (FY ending June 2025), a roughly 36% year-over-year increase.
- Who owns National University?
- National University is a nonprofit, not owned by shareholders. It operates under the National University System board of trustees, tax-exempt since April 1972 (EIN 23-7172306), and absorbed Northcentral University via a 2022 merger.
- Could AI replace National University's degree programs?
- Unlikely for licensure-track fields; NU holds WASC accreditation and is California's largest teaching-credential provider, cover AI cannot replicate. But NU itself flagged AI risk in July 2026, noting 86% of students already use AI and 95% of faculty fear it erodes critical thinking.
- Who is National University's biggest competitor?
- Southern New Hampshire University (~200,000 online students, vendor-claimed) and Western Governors University (~150,000 students, vendor-claimed) are far larger nonprofit online-adult-learner rivals; National University reported about 22,115 students in IPEDS-derived data for academic year 2024-2025, putting it at a scale disadvantage.
- How many students does National University have?
- Per IPEDS-derived data, National University enrolled 22,115 students in academic year 2024-2025 (11,237 undergraduate, 10,878 graduate). National University's own materials claim over 50,000 degree-seeking students plus about 80,000 workforce/professional learners annually as of May 2025.
- Is National University growing or shrinking?
- Growing by revenue: Form 990 filings show total revenue rose from about $400.2 million (FY2024) to about $544.2 million (FY2025), roughly 36% year-over-year. Its next Form 990, due around May 2027, will show whether that growth continued into FY2026.
Timeline
- 2026-07-22Sanford College of Education launches RAISE 5 AI-use framework for classroom assignments
- 2026-06-25Expanded partnership with Dallas College for North Texas workforce pipeline
- 2026-05-11Spring 2026 commencement graduates nearly 6,800 students
- 2026-05FY2025 Form 990 filed, showing revenue of about $544.2 million
- 2025-05-12First-ever commencement held at Oceanside's Frontwave Arena
- 2025-05-01NU announces Carnegie Classification for social/economic mobility
- 2025-05FY2024 Form 990 filed, showing revenue of about $400.2 million
- 2025-01-02Certificate in AI and Machine Learning launched within MS Data Science, tied to NSF initiative
- 2022-07-18Merger with Northcentral University completed, combined enrollment ~42,000-45,000
- 2021-06-10AAUP sanctions NU for 'egregious violations' after mass faculty firings
- 2019T. Denny Sanford gives $350 million gift, School of Education renamed Sanford College of Education
Revision history
24 July 2026
First assessed. Protection under test. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- National University (San Diego, California) (2026-06-17)
- National University (ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer)
- NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, Form 990 financials
- National University
- National University Earns Prestigious Carnegie Classification... (2025-05-01)
- National University Graduates Nearly 6,800 Students... (2026-05-11)
- National University gets green light to merge... (2022-07-18)
- National University Grows to 42,000 Students in Merger... (2022-07-19)
- Private College with Flexible, Accredited Programs
- National University, Cited for 'Egregious Violations,' Fired 50 Profs... (2021-06-10)
- California's Largest College of Education Unveils Framework for AI... (2026-07-22)
- Certificate in AI and Machine Learning (2025-01-02)