Is Nike profitable in 2026?

Yes. Nike reported FY2026 (ended May 31, 2026) net income of $3.1 billion on revenue of $46.4 billion, though profit was down 3% from FY2025 and revenue was flat on a reported basis, down 2% currency-neutral, per its June 30, 2026 earnings release.

Is Nike laying off workers?

Yes, for three consecutive years. Most recently, Nike cut 775 distribution-center jobs in January 2026 citing automation, followed by an April 2026 restructuring cutting roughly 1,400 roles (about 2% of global workforce) across design, merchandising, digital and marketing, plus store closures.

Could AI replace Nike?

No, Nike's core physical footwear and apparel business is largely insulated from AI substitution. AI is being used as a tool, cutting distribution jobs via automation (775 roles, January 2026) and powering a June 2026 Google Gemini shopping partnership, not replacing Nike's brand, athlete network or manufacturing scale.

Who is Nike's biggest competitor?

There is no single rival; Nike faces a pack of category-specific threats as of 2026: Anta Sports overtook Nike as China's top sportswear brand (per May 2026 reporting), On Holding and Hoka are winning in performance running, and Adidas is resurgent in lifestyle.

Nike (NYSE: NKE) is publicly traded with no parent company. Founder Phil Knight and family retain outsized control through Class A shares carrying roughly 97% of voting rights, while Class B shares trade publicly on the open market, per a May 2026 competitive analysis.

Is Nike losing market share in China?

Yes. China revenue was projected to fall approximately 20% in a recent quarter as of March 2026 reporting, and Anta Sports has overtaken Nike as China's top sportswear brand by share according to May 2026 industry analysis.

Consumer brands · United States

Nike

nike.com ↗

Nike designs and sells athletic shoes, apparel, and gear through its own stores and wholesale partners.

Protection under test

Assessed 20 July 2026 · Evidence as of 20 July 2026

Something worth protecting exists and is being tested right now.

On the recordSince 20 July 2026 · Checkable from Sept-Nov 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q1 FY27 earnings and November investor day update on the turnaround

The call

Nike is still the largest sportswear company by far, but Anta, On, Hoka, Lululemon, and Adidas are each taking a bite in a different category at the same time.

Nike makes athletic shoes and apparel and owns about 27% of the global market. It is hard to copy because of its famous athlete partnerships, brand reputation, and manufacturing scale, but right now multiple competitors are winning in specific areas: Anta is beating Nike in China, On and Hoka are taking customers in running shoes, and Lululemon is gaining in women's performance gear. The company has laid off workers three years in a row and missed its turnaround targets, so the question is not whether Nike survives but whether its stock price recovers, and that depends on whether its North American sales pickup in late 2025 was real or temporary, whether it can stop losing customers in China, and whether its new partnership with Google for online shopping actually helps instead of just cutting into profits.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. AI is not eating Nike's business; Nike is trying to use Google Gemini to fix its own digital sales slide. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: Anta Sports, On Holding, Deckers' Hoka, Lululemon, Adidas. Anta passed Nike in China, On and Hoka are winning runners, Lululemon leads women's, Adidas Samba is back in style. Could a giant copy it? Probably.

What protects it. Global scale, athlete contracts, and wholesale reach still give Nike the biggest shelf space in the industry.

What would change this call

China revenue growth rate at Q1 FY27 print (Sept/Oct 2026). Shows whether the ~20% quarterly decline and Anta's lead are stabilizing or worsening.
North America wholesale growth rate in Q1 FY27 vs the +10% Q4 FY26 bounce. Shows whether the recent North America improvement is a real trend or a one-quarter blip.
Digital/DTC revenue trend reported at November 2026 investor day. Shows whether the Google Gemini partnership is reversing the -12% digital decline or just cutting margins.

Key numbers

Revenue $46.4B, flat, down 2% currency-neutral (2026-05-31)
China revenue fell about 20% in the quarter (2026-03-31)
Stock near $40-41, down from over $150B market cap in 2024 (2026-07-20)

Named risks

Turnaround timeline slipping past original schedule, per CEO's June 2026 admission, with recovery now pushed to 2027. Severity: high
China revenue declining approximately 20% in recent quarter with Anta overtaking Nike in share. Severity: high
EEOC discrimination litigation escalating after a scrapped January 2025 settlement, revealed July 2026. Severity: medium
Continued layoffs and store closures signal ongoing cost pressure, three consecutive years of cuts through April 2026. Severity: medium
One-time $986 million tariff refund inflated Q4 FY26 EPS, masking underlying margin pressure. Severity: medium

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Anta Sports	losing to	Overtook Nike as China's top sportswear brand by share, per May 2026 report
On Holding / Hoka (Deckers)	losing to	Winning share in performance running category as of 2026 industry analysis
Lululemon	losing to	Expanding aggressively into women's performance footwear, per Feb 2026 analysis
Adidas	contesting	Resurgent Samba/Gazelle lifestyle trend; in exclusive talks to lose UEFA ball deal to Nike for 2027-2031, worth over 40M euros/year (May 2026)

Questions people ask

Is Nike profitable in 2026?: Yes. Nike reported FY2026 (ended May 31, 2026) net income of $3.1 billion on revenue of $46.4 billion, though profit was down 3% from FY2025 and revenue was flat on a reported basis, down 2% currency-neutral, per its June 30, 2026 earnings release.
Is Nike laying off workers?: Yes, for three consecutive years. Most recently, Nike cut 775 distribution-center jobs in January 2026 citing automation, followed by an April 2026 restructuring cutting roughly 1,400 roles (about 2% of global workforce) across design, merchandising, digital and marketing, plus store closures.
Could AI replace Nike?: No, Nike's core physical footwear and apparel business is largely insulated from AI substitution. AI is being used as a tool, cutting distribution jobs via automation (775 roles, January 2026) and powering a June 2026 Google Gemini shopping partnership, not replacing Nike's brand, athlete network or manufacturing scale.
Who is Nike's biggest competitor?: There is no single rival; Nike faces a pack of category-specific threats as of 2026: Anta Sports overtook Nike as China's top sportswear brand (per May 2026 reporting), On Holding and Hoka are winning in performance running, and Adidas is resurgent in lifestyle.
Who owns Nike?: Nike (NYSE: NKE) is publicly traded with no parent company. Founder Phil Knight and family retain outsized control through Class A shares carrying roughly 97% of voting rights, while Class B shares trade publicly on the open market, per a May 2026 competitive analysis.
Is Nike losing market share in China?: Yes. China revenue was projected to fall approximately 20% in a recent quarter as of March 2026 reporting, and Anta Sports has overtaken Nike as China's top sportswear brand by share according to May 2026 industry analysis.

Timeline

2026-07-17NYT reveals scrapped January 2025 EEOC settlement; DEI discrimination probe escalates
2026-06-30Q4 FY26 results: $11.0B revenue, $3.1B FY net income, $986M tariff-refund benefit
2026-06-23CEO Elliott Hill tells FT turnaround is taking longer than expected
2026-06Nike and Google launch Gemini AI shopping/checkout partnership ahead of World Cup
2026-04Restructuring cuts ~1,400 roles (~2% of workforce) across design, merchandising, digital, marketing
2026-03-31Elliott Hill asks for patience amid yearslong turnaround; China revenue projected to fall ~20%
2026-02EEOC files subpoena-enforcement action over alleged discrimination against white employees
2026-01-26Nike cuts 775 distribution-center jobs in Tennessee and Mississippi, citing automation
2025-05-31FY2025 annual report shows ~77,800 employees worldwide

Head to head

Mizuno Corporation vs Nike

Revision history

20 July 2026

First assessed. Protection under test. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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