Is NOV profitable in 2026?

Yes but thinly. NOV posted Q1 2026 net income of $19M ($0.05/share) on $2.05B revenue, an 8.6% adjusted EBITDA margin, as of March 31, 2026, per its April 27, 2026 earnings release. Net margin (~1.05%) trails Halliburton's ~6.95%, reflecting a razor-thin but positive profitability profile amid a drilling downcycle.

Is NOV doing layoffs in 2026?

NOV's headcount fell to 31,605 employees as of December 31, 2025, down 7.07% from 34,010 in 2024, according to stockanalysis.com data published July 7, 2026. Active job postings also dropped 43.2% in 2025 to 784, signaling continued workforce contraction into the current oilfield downcycle.

Could AI replace NOV's drilling business?

Unlikely in the near term. NOV's core moat is physical hardware (drilling rigs, top drives, mud pumps, subsea systems) and decades of proprietary drilling data, not software. NOV is itself deploying agentic AI, like its mud-report automation system launched March 2025, to enhance its own equipment and services rather than being displaced by outside AI.

Who is NOV's biggest competitor?

SLB and Halliburton are NOV's largest rivals by scale, with SLB's market cap around $86.7B and Halliburton's around $34.3B as of May 27, 2026, versus NOV's roughly $7.0-7.6B. Halliburton also posts stronger profitability, with a 6.95% net margin and 19.04% ROE versus NOV's 1.05% and 3.34%, per MarketBeat data from July 19, 2026.

NOV is an independent public company on the NYSE (ticker NOV), not a subsidiary. Its largest institutional shareholders as of late-2024 filings were Pzena Investment Management (about 10.9%) and Hotchkis and Wiley (about 10.1%), with insider ownership around 1.2%, per WSJ and MarketBeat data.

Did NOV's earnings miss expectations in 2026?

Yes. NOV reported a Q1 2026 earnings miss on April 27, 2026, with revenue of $2.05B (down 10% sequentially) and net income of just $19M, partly due to a ~$54M revenue hit from Middle East conflict disruption and roughly 400% tungsten carbide cost inflation since 2025.

Manufacturing companies · United States

NOV

nov.com ↗

Maker of drilling rigs, top drives, mud pumps and subsea gear for oil and gas producers.

Protection under test

Assessed 20 July 2026 · Evidence as of 20 July 2026

Something worth protecting exists and is being tested right now.

On the recordSince 20 July 2026 · Checkable from July 28-29, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings release and call, testing Energy Equipment book-to-bill and subsea backlog

The call

NOV's equipment relationships are hard to displace, but thin margins, tungsten carbide cost spikes, and a wobbly capex cycle leave little room for error.

NOV manufactures heavy drilling rigs, pumps, and subsea equipment for oil companies and sells spare parts and service to existing customers. The company is hard to replace because it has decades of specialized knowledge, long-term customer relationships, and equipment already installed in the field that customers depend on, but it struggles with razor-thin profits (earning only 1 cent per dollar of sales), faces rising material costs and tariffs, and competes in a boom-and-bust industry where oil companies cut spending sharply when prices fall. The key question is whether oil companies will keep spending on new equipment in the next few years, which will determine if NOV can finally boost its thin margins or remain squeezed.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. No AI product replaces heavy drilling equipment; AI-based predictive maintenance could extend NOV's own aftermarket data edge instead. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: Halliburton and SLB (Schlumberger). Both already sell competing oilfield equipment and services today, and run at far fatter margins than NOV's roughly 1% net margin. Could a giant copy it? Probably.

What protects it. Installed base of rigs and top drives already on customer sites, decades of proprietary drilling performance data, and liability-certified equipment that's costly to re-qualify with a new vendor.

What would change this call

NOV's Energy Equipment book-to-bill ratio in Q2 2026 earnings (July 28, 2026). Sustained sub-100% bookings would show weakening demand cycle, not competitor takeover.
Subsea flexible-pipe backlog still extending to 2028 or beyond in upcoming filings. Shrinking backlog horizon would signal customers deferring or shifting orders elsewhere.
Q2/Q3 2026 EBITDA margin trend versus tungsten carbide and tariff cost inflation. Continued margin compression would show cost pressure outpacing pricing power, not rival poaching.

Key numbers

FY2025 revenue $8.74B, down 1% YoY (2025-12-31)
Q1 2026 net income just $19M, EPS $0.05 (2026-03-31)
Middle East disruption cut Q1 2026 revenue by $54M (2026-03-31)

Named risks

Middle East conflict and Strait disruption already cut Q1 2026 revenue by ~$54M and EBITDA by ~$32M. Severity: high
Tungsten carbide input costs up ~400% since 2025 compressing already-thin margins. Severity: high
Tariff costs of ~$30M incremental in Q2 2026 adding further margin pressure. Severity: medium
Energy Equipment book-to-bill at 80% in Q1 2026, below the company's ~100% full-year target. Severity: medium
Headcount declining (-7.07% YoY in 2025) amid a drilling activity downcycle (7% global decline). Severity: medium

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Halliburton	losing to	NOV net margin 1.05% and ROE 3.34% vs Halliburton's 6.95% margin and 19.04% ROE, as of 2026-07-19
SLB	losing to	SLB market cap ~$86.7B vs NOV's ~$7.0-7.6B, as of 2026-05-27
Solaris Energy Infrastructure	losing to	Solaris stock up 121% vs NOV's 49.5% over trailing year to 2026-07-14
Oil States International	losing to	Oil States stock up 65% vs NOV's 49.5% over trailing year to 2026-07-14
Baker Hughes	contesting	Listed as closest direct peer/competitor in oilfield equipment as of 2026-07-19

Questions people ask

Is NOV profitable in 2026?: Yes but thinly. NOV posted Q1 2026 net income of $19M ($0.05/share) on $2.05B revenue, an 8.6% adjusted EBITDA margin, as of March 31, 2026, per its April 27, 2026 earnings release. Net margin (~1.05%) trails Halliburton's ~6.95%, reflecting a razor-thin but positive profitability profile amid a drilling downcycle.
Is NOV doing layoffs in 2026?: NOV's headcount fell to 31,605 employees as of December 31, 2025, down 7.07% from 34,010 in 2024, according to stockanalysis.com data published July 7, 2026. Active job postings also dropped 43.2% in 2025 to 784, signaling continued workforce contraction into the current oilfield downcycle.
Could AI replace NOV's drilling business?: Unlikely in the near term. NOV's core moat is physical hardware (drilling rigs, top drives, mud pumps, subsea systems) and decades of proprietary drilling data, not software. NOV is itself deploying agentic AI, like its mud-report automation system launched March 2025, to enhance its own equipment and services rather than being displaced by outside AI.
Who is NOV's biggest competitor?: SLB and Halliburton are NOV's largest rivals by scale, with SLB's market cap around $86.7B and Halliburton's around $34.3B as of May 27, 2026, versus NOV's roughly $7.0-7.6B. Halliburton also posts stronger profitability, with a 6.95% net margin and 19.04% ROE versus NOV's 1.05% and 3.34%, per MarketBeat data from July 19, 2026.
Who owns NOV Inc.?: NOV is an independent public company on the NYSE (ticker NOV), not a subsidiary. Its largest institutional shareholders as of late-2024 filings were Pzena Investment Management (about 10.9%) and Hotchkis and Wiley (about 10.1%), with insider ownership around 1.2%, per WSJ and MarketBeat data.
Did NOV's earnings miss expectations in 2026?: Yes. NOV reported a Q1 2026 earnings miss on April 27, 2026, with revenue of $2.05B (down 10% sequentially) and net income of just $19M, partly due to a ~$54M revenue hit from Middle East conflict disruption and roughly 400% tungsten carbide cost inflation since 2025.

Timeline

2026-06-16NOV announces Q2 2026 earnings call for July 28, guiding revenue down 4-6% YoY
2026-04-27NOV reports Q1 2026 earnings miss: $2.05B revenue, $19M net income, 8.6% EBITDA margin
2026-02-27NOV files 2025 10-K reporting FY2025 revenue of $8.74B, down 1% YoY
2026-01-12NOV partners with Abu Dhabi's AIQ to co-develop AI-enabled drilling optimization
2026-01-01Jose Bayardo succeeds Clay Williams as Chairman, President and CEO
2025-09-01NOV CTO David Reid describes test rigs operating without a driller's cabin
2025-03NOV deploys agentic AI mud-report automation system to rigs
2024-06-23NOV's Performance Center reaches roughly 20 rigs enrolled since late 2022

Revision history

20 July 2026

First assessed. Protection under test. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

In the same band

Ford Motor Whirlpool EchoStar