Is On Holding profitable in 2026?

Yes. On Holding posted record Q1 2026 net sales of CHF 831.9 million (+26.4% constant currency), a 64.2% gross margin, and a 21% adjusted EBITDA margin as of March 31, 2026. FY2024 net profit had already jumped 204.5% to CHF 242.3 million, and FY2025 net sales topped CHF 3 billion for the first time.

On Holding (NYSE: ONON) is public with a dual-class structure. Co-founders David Allemann, Caspar Coppetti and Olivier Bernhard hold major Class B voting control; Roger Federer owns an estimated 3% stake (~$500M value in 2025), 3G Capital families hold ~14% (2022), and Fidelity (FMR LLC) disclosed 8.1% as of March 31, 2026.

Could AI replace On Holding's shoemaking?

Unlikely soon. On's edge is physical: patented LightSpray robotic manufacturing facilities in Zurich (2025) and Busan (April 2026), plus CloudTec cushioning and CleanCloud captured-carbon midsoles. AI mainly threatens back-office content and design-concepting workflows, not On's capital-intensive factories or brand relationships (Federer, Loewe, Erewhon).

Who is On Holding's biggest competitor?

Nike is the incumbent losing ground; at Dick's Sporting Goods, On's footwear share rose to 12% while Nike's fell from 39% to 32% as of February 26, 2026. Hoka (Deckers) is On's closest premium peer, having surpassed $2 billion in annual revenue by June 2026, though growing roughly a quarter as fast as On.

Is it risky to join On Holding right now given the leadership change?

There is real uncertainty. Effective May 1, 2026, founders David Allemann and Caspar Coppetti became Co-CEOs after 13-year CEO/CFO Martin Hoffmann's exit, triggering an ~10-11% stock drop on March 25, 2026 and a Schall Law Firm fraud investigation opened March 29, 2026 into related disclosures.

Has On Holding done layoffs?

No layoffs are reported; headcount is growing. Company filings show 3,963 employees at end of 2025, up 21.8% from 3,254 in 2024, and third-party trackers like Revelio Labs cite 4,370 employees (+16.3% YoY) as of December 2025.

Consumer brands · Switzerland

On Holding AG

on-running.com ↗

Swiss maker of premium running shoes and apparel sold via DTC and select retail.

Defensible for now

Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026

Real protection, with named pressure against it.

On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from September 21-22, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: First Investor Day in three years, new multi-year targets under founder Co-CEOs

The call

On keeps growing fast and pulling share from Nike, while a CEO exit, a fraud probe, and tariff uncertainty sit alongside record margins.

On Holding makes running shoes and athletic gear sold at premium prices, competing directly against Nike in specialty running stores. The company has built real advantages through its own manufacturing technology (like CloudTech cushioning and LightSpray robotic production) and celebrity endorsements (like tennis player Roger Federer), which are hard for Nike to copy quickly, though Nike's size and resources mean the gap could close. The biggest risk is what happens next: the founder is taking over as CEO in May 2026 after a long-time finance leader leaves, there is an open fraud investigation the company is dealing with, and if the brand loses its premium status and starts showing up on sale racks instead of staying exclusive, customers may stop seeing On as special anymore.

Why

AI pressure: AI shopping agents (e.g. Amazon Rufus, Google AI Mode). AI assistants that steer buyers to cheapest match could flatten On's price premium over time, but no direct hit yet. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: Nike. Nike's Dick's Sporting Goods footwear share fell from 39% to 32% as On rose to 12%, but Nike still dwarfs On in scale and budget. Could a giant copy it? Probably.

What protects it. Brand heat (Federer, Loewe, Erewhon) plus in-house LightSpray robotic manufacturing that's hard to copy fast.

What would change this call

On's Q2 2026 earnings (~Aug 11, 2026) show full-price DTC growth and gross margin trend versus Q1's 64.2%. Deceleration or margin drop below mid-60s would suggest fading brand heat, not just Nike's loss.
September 21-22, 2026 Investor Day multi-year targets and tone under new founder Co-CEOs. Confirms whether leadership transition steadies growth story or introduces strategic uncertainty.
Resolution of the Schall Law Firm securities-fraud investigation opened March 2026. Settlement or charges would signal governance risk beyond normal competitive dynamics.

Key numbers

FY2025 net sales topped CHF 3 billion (2025-12-31)
Q1 2026 gross margin hit record 64.2% (2026-03-31)
APAC sales grew 61.4% cc, now over 20% of revenue (2026-03-31)

Named risks

Founder Co-CEOs untested in role during major growth scaling after 13-year CEO exit. Severity: high
Open Schall Law Firm securities-fraud investigation into CEO transition disclosures. Severity: medium
Tariff headwinds requiring absorption into margin guidance and refund filings. Severity: medium
Brand-heat cycle risk as premium running field crowds with Hoka, New Balance, Asics. Severity: medium

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Nike	losing to	On rose to 12% of Dick's Sporting Goods footwear sales as Nike fell from 39% to 32%, Feb 2026
Hoka	contesting	Hoka topped $2B revenue by June 2026 but grew roughly 1/4 as fast as On
Adidas	gaining on	On took share in premium running while Nike/Adidas hold ~50% of broader footwear market, April 2026
New Balance and Asics	contesting	Both cited as gaining share alongside On/Hoka as Nike loses ground, June 2026

Questions people ask

Is On Holding profitable in 2026?: Yes. On Holding posted record Q1 2026 net sales of CHF 831.9 million (+26.4% constant currency), a 64.2% gross margin, and a 21% adjusted EBITDA margin as of March 31, 2026. FY2024 net profit had already jumped 204.5% to CHF 242.3 million, and FY2025 net sales topped CHF 3 billion for the first time.
Who owns On Holding?: On Holding (NYSE: ONON) is public with a dual-class structure. Co-founders David Allemann, Caspar Coppetti and Olivier Bernhard hold major Class B voting control; Roger Federer owns an estimated 3% stake (~$500M value in 2025), 3G Capital families hold ~14% (2022), and Fidelity (FMR LLC) disclosed 8.1% as of March 31, 2026.
Could AI replace On Holding's shoemaking?: Unlikely soon. On's edge is physical: patented LightSpray robotic manufacturing facilities in Zurich (2025) and Busan (April 2026), plus CloudTec cushioning and CleanCloud captured-carbon midsoles. AI mainly threatens back-office content and design-concepting workflows, not On's capital-intensive factories or brand relationships (Federer, Loewe, Erewhon).
Who is On Holding's biggest competitor?: Nike is the incumbent losing ground; at Dick's Sporting Goods, On's footwear share rose to 12% while Nike's fell from 39% to 32% as of February 26, 2026. Hoka (Deckers) is On's closest premium peer, having surpassed $2 billion in annual revenue by June 2026, though growing roughly a quarter as fast as On.
Is it risky to join On Holding right now given the leadership change?: There is real uncertainty. Effective May 1, 2026, founders David Allemann and Caspar Coppetti became Co-CEOs after 13-year CEO/CFO Martin Hoffmann's exit, triggering an ~10-11% stock drop on March 25, 2026 and a Schall Law Firm fraud investigation opened March 29, 2026 into related disclosures.
Has On Holding done layoffs?: No layoffs are reported; headcount is growing. Company filings show 3,963 employees at end of 2025, up 21.8% from 3,254 in 2024, and third-party trackers like Revelio Labs cite 4,370 employees (+16.3% YoY) as of December 2025.

Timeline

2026-07-22Infinium deal to scale CleanCloud captured-carbon midsoles to over 1 million pairs
2026-06-28Unveiled permanent brand identity Run On Clouds at Paris Running Summit
2026-05-12Q1 2026 results: CHF 831.9M sales, 64.2% gross margin, raised FY guidance
2026-05-01Co-founders Allemann and Coppetti become Co-CEOs, replacing Martin Hoffmann
2026-04-01Second LightSpray robotic facility opened near Busan, South Korea
2026-03-29Schall Law Firm opens fraud investigation over CEO transition disclosures
2026-03-25CEO transition announced; stock fell roughly 10-11%
2025-12-31FY2025 net sales exceeded CHF 3 billion for the first time
2021-09-16IPO on NYSE at $24/share, raising ~$746.4M, ~$11B valuation

Revision history

23 July 2026

First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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