Is Our Next Energy profitable in 2026?

No. ONE stated on January 6, 2026 that it needs about $60M in 2026 to reach cash-flow breakeven, and had only secured $35M in new rail and defense purchase orders as of that announcement, leaving a gap still unclosed.

Did Our Next Energy lay off employees?

Yes. ONE cut 128 employees (about 25% of staff) in December 2023 during a funding crisis, then announced a roughly 45% workforce reduction on January 6, 2026 when it exited the automotive EV business entirely.

Who is Our Next Energy's biggest competitor in defense batteries?

Eos Energy Enterprises, which won a Golden Dome missile-defense energy storage contract on July 18, 2026, a domestic-sourcing niche ONE is also targeting after pivoting away from EVs in January 2026.

Could AI replace Our Next Energy's business?

No. ONE's core work is physical LFP battery cell and pack manufacturing at its ONE Circle gigafactory in Michigan, a capital-intensive hardware operation that AI software cannot substitute for.

Who owns Our Next Energy?

It is a private company founded in 2020 by Mujeeb Ijaz, backed by Fifth Wall, Franklin Templeton, Riverstone, Temasek and Coatue in a $300M Series B closed February 2023 that valued it near $1.2B.

Is Our Next Energy still making EV batteries?

No. On January 6, 2026 ONE announced it paused automotive EV battery investments entirely to refocus exclusively on rail, defense and utility-scale storage after its Gemini EV pack was never adopted by a major automaker.

United States · United States

Our Next Energy

Battery maker pivoting from EVs to defense, rail, and grid storage cells.

Protection under test

Assessed 29 July 2026 · Evidence as of 29 July 2026

Something worth protecting exists and is being tested right now.

On the recordSince 29 July 2026 · Checkable from Q4 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q4 2026 print on whether purchase orders clear the $60M breakeven line or stall near $35M

The call

ONE has a regulatory wall against Chinese rivals but still has to out-execute funded domestic peers before its cash runs out.

Our Next Energy switched from making car batteries to selling energy storage systems for military, railroads, and power grids after running out of cash twice in 15 months. The company is hard to replace because U.S. law blocks Chinese battery makers from these contracts, but it faces real competition from other American and allied companies like LG and Panasonic that also qualify, plus rivals like Eos that are already winning major defense deals. The single biggest question is whether Our Next Energy can actually build its factory on schedule and hit profitability in 2026, since it is currently $60 million short and has not yet proven it can manufacture at the scale it promises.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. AI software plays no direct role in battery cell manufacturing or in ONE's defense and rail pivot. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: Eos Energy, LG Energy Solution, Panasonic. Eos already won a marquee defense storage contract while LG and Panasonic run compliant US plants ONE must match. Could a giant copy it? Probably.

What protects it. NDAA and FCC domestic-sourcing rules block CATL and BYD from bidding on the defense and rail contracts ONE is chasing.

What would change this call

ONE announces cumulative purchase orders vs. $60M breakeven target by Q4 2026. Shows whether ONE's order pipeline is scaling or stalling near survival threshold.
DARPA/defense storage contract awarded to Eos, 6K Energy, or American Battery Factory over ONE. Would show ONE losing named defense deals to funded domestic peers.
ONE Circle full-scale production line starts or slips past early 2027 target. Tests whether ONE can execute manufacturing scale-up on schedule.

Key numbers

$60M in 2026 orders needed for cash-flow breakeven (2026-01-09)
$35M in rail/defense purchase orders secured (2026-01-06)
$1.2B valuation from Feb 2023 Series B (2023-02-01)

Named risks

Only $35M in POs against a stated $60M 2026 breakeven need as of January 2026. Severity: high
Full-scale ONE Circle production targeted early 2027 remains unproven at scale. Severity: high
Two CEO changes in 15 months (Dec 2023, Mar 2025) signal governance instability. Severity: medium
Well-funded domestic rivals like Eos already winning marquee defense contracts. Severity: high
Total exit from automotive EV market eliminates a prior revenue line entirely. Severity: medium

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Eos Energy Enterprises	losing to	Eos won Golden Dome missile-defense storage contract, July 18 2026
6K Energy / CRG Defense	contesting	Signed 7-year domestic NMC811 cathode supply deal, May 1 2026
LG Energy Solution, Panasonic	contesting	Allied-nation US plants unblocked by NDAA domestic-sourcing rules
American Battery Factory	contesting	VC-backed domestic LFP cell maker competing in same niche, 2026
CATL, BYD	gaining on	Blocked from US defense/rail supply by FY2026 NDAA Section 842 and FCC rules

Questions people ask

Is Our Next Energy profitable in 2026?: No. ONE stated on January 6, 2026 that it needs about $60M in 2026 to reach cash-flow breakeven, and had only secured $35M in new rail and defense purchase orders as of that announcement, leaving a gap still unclosed.
Did Our Next Energy lay off employees?: Yes. ONE cut 128 employees (about 25% of staff) in December 2023 during a funding crisis, then announced a roughly 45% workforce reduction on January 6, 2026 when it exited the automotive EV business entirely.
Who is Our Next Energy's biggest competitor in defense batteries?: Eos Energy Enterprises, which won a Golden Dome missile-defense energy storage contract on July 18, 2026, a domestic-sourcing niche ONE is also targeting after pivoting away from EVs in January 2026.
Could AI replace Our Next Energy's business?: No. ONE's core work is physical LFP battery cell and pack manufacturing at its ONE Circle gigafactory in Michigan, a capital-intensive hardware operation that AI software cannot substitute for.
Who owns Our Next Energy?: It is a private company founded in 2020 by Mujeeb Ijaz, backed by Fifth Wall, Franklin Templeton, Riverstone, Temasek and Coatue in a $300M Series B closed February 2023 that valued it near $1.2B.
Is Our Next Energy still making EV batteries?: No. On January 6, 2026 ONE announced it paused automotive EV battery investments entirely to refocus exclusively on rail, defense and utility-scale storage after its Gemini EV pack was never adopted by a major automaker.

Timeline

2026-07-18Rival Eos Energy wins Golden Dome missile-defense storage contract
2026-06-06DARPA opens ExPEDitions battery program, proposals due Aug 19 2026
2026-05-016K Energy and CRG Defense sign 7-year domestic cathode supply deal
2026-01-09ONE states it needs ~$60M in 2026 to reach cash-flow breakeven
2026-01-06ONE pauses EVs, pivots to rail/defense, cuts ~45% of staff, adds $35M POs
2025-03-05Mujeeb Ijaz returns as CEO with new undisclosed funding round
2024-11-07ONE closes its South Korea office
2023-12-10Founder Ijaz demoted to CTO amid cash crunch, Humphries named CEO
2023-10-31Pilot production begins at 20 GWh ONE Circle Michigan factory
2023-02-01Series B closes at $300M, valuing ONE at over $1B

Revision history

29 July 2026

First assessed. Protection under test. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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