WillItSurvive

Paul Weiss Rifkind Wharton & Garrison

Elite New York law firm advising private equity giants like Apollo and Blackstone.

Defensible for now
Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026
Real protection, with named pressure against it.
On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from September 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Publication of Jacob Weisberg's book 'Profiles in Cowardice' on Karp and the Trump deal
The call

Corporate and PE work keeps growing under new chair Scott Barshay, while litigation partners keep leaving for Davis Polk, Jenner & Block, and a new boutique.

Paul Weiss is a 150-year-old law firm that makes money helping big companies and private equity firms with deals and legal problems. Right now the firm is having trouble staying together: its top leader resigned in early 2026 over an Epstein case, then dozens of top lawyers left after the firm decided to settle a Trump-related lawsuit, with some joining rival firms like Davis Polk and Jenner & Block and others starting their own firm. The big question is whether this is just a one-time shake-up in the litigation side of the business, or whether it signals deeper problems that could pull away corporate lawyers too, since firms like Kirkland have already hired away some of Paul Weiss's deal-focused partners.

Why
01
AI pressure: Harvey AI and similar legal AI tools. AI drafting and research tools could cut junior associate billable hours, but big deal work still needs named partners. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Kirkland & Ellis. Kirkland poached a senior London M&A partner in Feb 2026, the first major corporate-side loss for Paul Weiss in years. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. Deep, sticky client relationships like Apollo's reported $100M plus annual fees, plus regulatory bar to entry for elite deal work.
What would change this call
A second senior corporate or PE partner leaves Paul Weiss for Kirkland, Latham, or a similar rival within 12 months. Would show the bleed spreading from litigation into the core M&A/PE franchise.
FY2025 Am Law revenue and PEP figures are published and compared to FY2024's 31.6% growth. Would show whether corporate/PE growth offset litigation department contraction.
An Apollo-scale client shifts significant work to a firm that recently hired a departed Paul Weiss partner. Would show client lock-in is weakening, not just individual attorney departures.
Key numbers
  • FY2024 revenue $2.63B, up 31.6% year over year (2025-02-27)
  • Profits per equity partner hit $7.51M, up 14.7% (2025-02-27)
  • Apollo Global reportedly pays over $100M/yr in fees (2025-06-10)
Named risks
  • Continued litigation partner exodus to rival firms and boutiques since March 2025. Severity: high
  • Reputational fallout from Karp-Epstein email revelations and forthcoming book on the Trump deal. Severity: high
  • Corporate-side poaching (Kirkland, Feb 2026) signaling drain could spread beyond litigation. Severity: medium
  • Ongoing climate-liability litigation defending ExxonMobil after Supreme Court declined to dismiss. Severity: low
  • Full FY2025 revenue and PEP figures not yet itemized, obscuring true financial impact of departures. Severity: low
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Kirkland & Ellisgaining onPoached senior Paul Weiss London M&A partner, Feb 2026, first major corporate loss in years
Davis Polkgaining onHired litigators Kannon Shanmugam and Masha Hansford from Paul Weiss, April 2026
Jenner & Blockgaining onHired former SDNY US Attorney Damian Williams from Paul Weiss, 2026
Linklatersgaining onHired litigators Christopher Boehning and Daniel Levi from Paul Weiss, July 2026
Dunn Isaacson RheecontestingBoutique founded by 4 ex-Paul Weiss partners in March 2025, grew to 34 attorneys by June 2026
Questions people ask
Is Paul Weiss profitable?
Yes. Paul Weiss reported FY2024 revenue of $2.63 billion, up 31.6% year over year, the largest jump among Am Law 100 firms that year, with profits per equity partner rising 14.7% to $7.51 million, per a February 27, 2025 Law.com report.
Why did Brad Karp resign from Paul Weiss?
Brad Karp resigned as chairman on February 4, 2026 after Justice Department releases of Epstein files revealed email correspondence between Karp and Jeffrey Epstein. Corporate partner Scott Barshay, recruited from Cravath in 2016, was named the new chairman the same day.
Is Paul Weiss losing lawyers to competitors?
Its litigation bench has bled talent since March 2025: four partners left to found Dunn Isaacson Rhee, Damian Williams joined Jenner & Block, Kannon Shanmugam and Masha Hansford joined Davis Polk (April 2026), and Christopher Boehning and Daniel Levi joined Linklaters (July 2026). Corporate side saw one Kirkland poach in February 2026.
Could AI replace Paul Weiss's lawyers?
Unlikely soon. Paul Weiss became the first law firm to launch Harvey AI's Workflow Builder in June 2025 and began testing Harvey in January 2023, but as of May 2024 it had not measured hard ROI or efficiency gains after 18 months of use, citing verification overhead.
Who is Paul Weiss's biggest competitor?
Kirkland & Ellis is the Am Law revenue leader, the first firm to cross $10 billion in FY2025 revenue (up about 20% year over year, reported April 29, 2026), and poached a senior Paul Weiss London M&A partner in February 2026, its first major corporate-side loss in years.
What was the Paul Weiss deal with Trump about?
In March 2025 Paul Weiss became the first major law firm to strike a deal with the Trump administration, pledging $40 million in pro bono legal services and adopting politically neutral hiring after Executive Order 14237 threatened its federal contracts; Trump rescinded the order on March 21, 2025.
Timeline
  • 2026-07-14Linklaters poaches litigators Christopher Boehning and Daniel Levi from Paul Weiss
  • 2026-06-01Dunn Isaacson Rhee boutique, founded by ex Paul Weiss partners, grows to about 34 attorneys
  • 2026-05-20Reports describe accelerated internal rebalancing away from litigation under new chair Barshay
  • 2026-04-24Kannon Shanmugam and Masha Hansford depart Paul Weiss for Davis Polk
  • 2026-02-04Brad Karp resigns as chairman amid Epstein files fallout, Scott Barshay named new chair
  • 2025-12-05Paul Weiss names 28 new partners effective January 1, 2026
  • 2025-06-10Paul Weiss becomes first law firm to launch Harvey AI's Workflow Builder
  • 2025-03-21Trump rescinds executive order after Paul Weiss pledges $40 million in pro bono services
  • 2025-03-01Karen Dunn, Bill Isaacson, Jeannie Rhee and Jessica Phillips leave to found Dunn Isaacson Rhee
  • 2025-02-27Paul Weiss reports FY2024 revenue of $2.63 billion, up 31.6 percent year over year
Revision history
23 July 2026
First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources