WillItSurvive
Design and creative software · subsidiary of Kaleidos (Kaleidos Open Source / Kaleidos INC Sucursal en España) · Spain

Penpot

Open-source, self-hostable design and prototyping tool built as an alternative to Figma.

Losing its protection
Assessed 24 July 2026 · Evidence as of 24 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 24 July 2026 · Checkable from August 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Figma's post-lock-up trading and first earnings call as a public company
The call

Penpot has a real space Figma can't follow it into, but turning EU sovereignty appeal into paying enterprise customers is still unproven.

Penpot is a free, open-source design tool that companies can run on their own servers instead of using the cloud-based Figma. Figma is much bigger, makes over $1 billion a year, and is adding AI features that can turn written descriptions into designs automatically, which threatens to make design tools less valuable overall. Penpot's real advantage is that it appeals to governments and companies in Europe that need to keep their data private or under their own control, but whether it can turn that advantage into real paying customers in the next year or so will determine if it survives as a business.

Why
01
AI pressure: Figma Make (AI prompt-to-code). Figma Make turns text prompts into working UI, shrinking the first-draft design work Penpot's tool also targets. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.
02
Bigger players: Figma. Figma is public, pulling in over $1B a year and adding AI features fast, while Penpot runs on a small team and grant money. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. Self-hosting, open source code, and an open file format let governments and regulated firms in the EU run Penpot on their own servers, something Figma's hosted model can't offer.
What would change this call
Penpot announces named EU government or regulated-industry paid contracts with disclosed ARR within 12 months. Would show sovereignty positioning converting into real commercial revenue, not just grants.
Penpot's next funding round is commercial capital versus another public grant. Would show private investors, not just governments, believe in the business model.
Figma's Q3/Q4 2026 earnings show enterprise churn or seat losses tied to sovereignty or open-source concerns. Would show Penpot or similar rivals actually pulling customers from Figma.
Key numbers
  • Figma FY2025 revenue ~$1.06-1.1B, up 41% YoY (2026-07-24)
  • Spain's government put in EUR 1.92M of a EUR 6.9M round (2026-07-21)
  • Penpot/Kaleidos runs with 21-50 employees (n.d.)
Named risks
  • No disclosed revenue and enterprise pricing model still in flux as of March 2025. Severity: high
  • AI prompt-to-design tools like Figma Make compressing manual design work Penpot is built around. Severity: high
  • Small team (21-50 employees) out-capitalized against $1B+ public incumbent Figma. Severity: high
  • Reliance on government grant funding (EUR1.92M, July 2026) rather than proven commercial ARR. Severity: medium
  • Inconsistent, vendor-only usage metrics (600K vs 1M users across different pages) undermine credibility. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Figmalosing toFigma FY2025 revenue ~$1.06-1.1B, +41% YoY, and Figma Make AI grew 70% QoQ in Q4 2025 (2026-07-24)
AdobecontestingAdobe attempted $20B Figma acquisition in 2022, blocked by regulators December 2023, remains adjacent incumbent
SketchcontestingListed as direct competitor in collaborative UI/UX design tooling per 2025 pricing comparisons
FramercontestingNamed as direct competitor in prototyping space alongside Penpot as of 2025 comparisons
Questions people ask
Is Penpot profitable in 2026?
No financials are disclosed. Penpot's parent Kaleidos has raised only $8M Series A (Sept 2022) plus a €6.9M mostly public-funded round in July 2026, with no independently reported revenue or profit figures available as of July 2026.
Could AI replace Penpot or Figma-style design tools?
AI prompt-to-design tools like Figma's Make, which grew 70% quarter over quarter in Q4 2025, are automating first-draft UI work. Penpot responded with an MCP server and AI-prompting guides (2025-2026) rather than a native generative feature, leaving it exposed to commoditization of manual design work.
Who owns Penpot?
Penpot is built by Kaleidos, a Madrid-based company whose employees bought 100% of the firm around 2020. It remains privately held, with a $8M Series A from Decibel Partners in September 2022 and Spanish government co-investment of €1.92M announced July 2026.
Is Penpot a safe company to join right now?
Penpot/Kaleidos is a small operation, roughly 21-50 employees per directory data, with no disclosed revenue and a pricing model still being finalized on its own community forum as of March 2025, competing against a $1B+ public incumbent, Figma.
Who is Penpot's biggest competitor?
Figma is Penpot's dominant rival, a public company with roughly $1.06-1.1 billion FY2025 revenue growing 41% year over year as of July 2026, versus Penpot's undisclosed revenue and 21-50 person team, per available reporting.
Does Penpot have AI features like Figma Make?
Penpot shipped an AI whitepaper and MCP (Model Context Protocol) server in August 2025 letting AI agents read and manipulate design files, and expanded design tokens to its Plugins API in version 2.14 in March 2026, positioning AI as an integration layer rather than a generative design feature.
Timeline
  • 2026-07-21Spain's SETT invests EUR1.92M in Kaleidos as part of EUR6.9M combined public-private round
  • 2026-07-08Penpot 2.17 released with WebGL rendering engine beta and comment resolution
  • 2026-03-17Penpot 2.14 ships design tokens exposed via Plugins API
  • 2025-08-05Penpot publishes AI whitepaper and launches MCP server for AI agents
  • 2025-01-01.penpot open file format ships with version 2.4
  • 2024-04-09Penpot 2.0 launches with CSS Grid Layout and new component system
  • 2022-09-27Penpot raises $8M Series A led by Decibel Partners
  • 2021-08-11Kaleidos pivots from IT consultancy to open-source product company
  • 2021-02-01Penpot alpha released, unveiled at FOSDEM 2021
Revision history
24 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources