Is Riskified profitable in 2026?

Riskified posted its first-ever GAAP profitable quarter in Q4 2025 with $99.3M revenue and an 18% adjusted EBITDA margin. Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA rose 370% YoY to $6.2M on $88.3M revenue, and FY2026 EBITDA guidance is $28 to 34M, as of May 2026.

Could AI replace Riskified?

Not easily. Riskified's moat is a cross-merchant identity graph across roughly 20,000 merchants (vendor-claimed) plus a balance-sheet-backed 100% chargeback guarantee, which requires capital and shared network data that a standalone AI model cannot replicate, per its own 2026 statements.

Who is Riskified's biggest competitor?

In enterprise fraud prevention, Signifyd, Forter, and Sift are Riskified's closest rivals as of 2026, while Shopify Protect, Stripe, Adyen, and PayPal are bundling native fraud tools that pressure Riskified's low and mid-market segments.

Riskified is an independent public company (NYSE: RSKD) with no parent, run by co-founder Eido Gal as Chairman and CEO. It IPO'd July 29, 2021 at $21.00 per share for about $418M gross proceeds and a $4.3B valuation, per its IPO closing announcement.

Is Riskified's revenue growing fast?

Growth is modest: FY2025 revenue was $344.6M, up about 5 to 6% YoY, and Q1 2026 revenue was $88.3M, up 7% YoY. Raised FY2026 guidance targets $376 to 384M, roughly 10% growth, as of May 13, 2026.

What does Riskified's chargeback guarantee actually cover?

Riskified offers a 100% money-back guarantee on approved transactions that later result in chargebacks, backed by its own balance sheet, which held about $297.6M in cash, deposits and investments with zero debt as of December 31, 2025.

Payments companies · Israel

Riskified

riskified.com ↗

Riskified guarantees ecommerce merchants against fraud losses and eats the chargeback risk itself.

Protection under test

Assessed 21 July 2026 · Evidence as of 21 July 2026

Something worth protecting exists and is being tested right now.

On the recordSince 21 July 2026 · Checkable from August 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings report, testing whether Q1's billings gap was timing or real slowdown

The call

Riskified still owns the enterprise guarantee business but processors are building fraud tools into checkout itself, squeezing growth from below.

Riskified sells fraud protection and chargeback guarantees to online stores, backing its promises with its own money and learning from 20,000 merchant clients to catch repeat fraud patterns. It is hard for payment processors like Stripe and Shopify to fully replace because large enterprises value Riskified's independent guarantee and track record, but small and mid-size stores are already choosing cheaper built-in fraud tools from those same processors, which narrows Riskified's edge. The company grows slowly (5 to 10 percent per year), has cut staff for four straight years, and is buying back its own stock instead of investing heavily in new products, all signs that the business is shrinking rather than expanding. What could shift the outlook is whether newer products like dispute handling and account security tools create real growth, or whether fraud patterns tied to AI-powered shopping and checkout bots become so different that Riskified's existing merchant data loses its value.

Why

AI pressure: Shopify Protect, Stripe Radar. Generalized fraud AI now ships free inside checkout tools, squeezing Riskified out of small and mid-market merchants first. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: Shopify, Stripe, Adyen, PayPal. Payment giants bundle fraud protection into their processors, climbing from low end toward enterprise where Riskified still holds ground. Could a giant copy it? Probably.

What protects it. A 100 percent chargeback guarantee backed by its own balance sheet, plus fraud data pooled across roughly 20,000 merchants.

What would change this call

Riskified's revenue growth rate in FY2026 results (guided ~10%). Shows whether enterprise moat is holding or low/mid-market erosion is spreading upward.
Shopify Protect or Stripe announcing a cross-PSP chargeback guarantee for large enterprise merchants. Would show incumbents closing the enterprise gap that currently protects Riskified.
Riskified's non-chargeback product revenue (Policy Protect, ARIA, Dispute Resolve) hitting or missing its $15-20M 2026 target. Tests whether new products add real growth or just offset core stagnation.

Key numbers

FY2025 revenue $344.6M, up 5-6% (2025-12-31)
Q1 2026 revenue $88.3M, up 7% YoY (2026-03-31)
Multi-product now over 30% of revenue (2026-03-31)

Named risks

Low and mid-market erosion from Stripe, Adyen, PayPal and Shopify Protect bundling native fraud tools. Severity: high
Single-digit revenue growth (5-10% YoY) signals a maturing, contested business rather than expansion. Severity: medium
Four consecutive years of headcount decline, from ~800 in 2022 to 670 in 2025. Severity: medium
~400bps FX headwind embedded in FY2026 guidance could pressure reported growth. Severity: low
Agentic-commerce fraud volume remains low as of early 2026, an unresolved wildcard for future signal quality. Severity: medium

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Shopify Protect	gaining on	Native bundled fraud tool eroding Riskified low/mid-market share as of 2026
Stripe	contesting	Stripe Radar and bundled fraud tooling pressure mid-market merchants, 2026
Signifyd	contesting	Closest direct rival on chargeback-guarantee model, cited across 2026 comparisons
Forter	contesting	Competes on broader trust and identity decisioning platform, 2026
Sift	contesting	AI-powered fraud detection rival with case management tools, 2026

Questions people ask

Is Riskified profitable in 2026?: Riskified posted its first-ever GAAP profitable quarter in Q4 2025 with $99.3M revenue and an 18% adjusted EBITDA margin. Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA rose 370% YoY to $6.2M on $88.3M revenue, and FY2026 EBITDA guidance is $28 to 34M, as of May 2026.
Could AI replace Riskified?: Not easily. Riskified's moat is a cross-merchant identity graph across roughly 20,000 merchants (vendor-claimed) plus a balance-sheet-backed 100% chargeback guarantee, which requires capital and shared network data that a standalone AI model cannot replicate, per its own 2026 statements.
Who is Riskified's biggest competitor?: In enterprise fraud prevention, Signifyd, Forter, and Sift are Riskified's closest rivals as of 2026, while Shopify Protect, Stripe, Adyen, and PayPal are bundling native fraud tools that pressure Riskified's low and mid-market segments.
Who owns Riskified?: Riskified is an independent public company (NYSE: RSKD) with no parent, run by co-founder Eido Gal as Chairman and CEO. It IPO'd July 29, 2021 at $21.00 per share for about $418M gross proceeds and a $4.3B valuation, per its IPO closing announcement.
Is Riskified's revenue growing fast?: Growth is modest: FY2025 revenue was $344.6M, up about 5 to 6% YoY, and Q1 2026 revenue was $88.3M, up 7% YoY. Raised FY2026 guidance targets $376 to 384M, roughly 10% growth, as of May 13, 2026.
What does Riskified's chargeback guarantee actually cover?: Riskified offers a 100% money-back guarantee on approved transactions that later result in chargebacks, backed by its own balance sheet, which held about $297.6M in cash, deposits and investments with zero debt as of December 31, 2025.

Timeline

2026-05-13Q1 2026 results reported, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $376-384M
2026-05-06Launched ARIA AI risk analyst and Identity Explore 2.0 at Ascend 2026 summit
2026-03-04Q4 2025 results: first-ever GAAP profitable quarter, $99.3M revenue
2026-03-01Launched Dispute Resolve product for Shopify merchants
2024-02-13CEO Eido Gal issued note confirming layoffs
2023-06-05SDNY dismissed 2022 securities fraud class action over IPO disclosures
2021-07-29IPO on NYSE at $21.00/share, ~$418M raised, ~$4.3B valuation
2019-11Closed $165M Series E led by General Atlantic

Revision history

21 July 2026

First assessed. Protection under test. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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