WillItSurvive
Cybersecurity companies · United States

Rubrik

Rubrik sells cloud based backup and ransomware recovery software for enterprise data.

Defensible for now
Assessed 21 July 2026 · Evidence as of 21 July 2026
Real protection, with named pressure against it.
On the recordSince 21 July 2026 · Checkable from September 8, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 FY27 earnings, with guided revenue of $395 to $397 million
The call

Rubrik keeps growing fast and holding onto customers, but Cohesity's merger with Veritas and rival AI claims from Commvault and Veeam are closing the gap it once had.

Rubrik helps companies back up and recover their data across different cloud providers, and customers stay with them because the software is deeply woven into their systems and charges based on how much data they protect. Competitors like Veeam, Commvault, and the newly merged Cohesity-Veritas can do the same job just as well, so Rubrik is not easy to replace just because of its core backup business, and AI tools do not threaten the basic backup work. The big question is whether Rubrik's new software for managing AI systems (Agent Cloud) will actually convince customers to pay more and stick around, because right now that part is still being tested and rivals are already claiming they can do it too.

Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. LLMs don't do backup and recovery work, but Rubrik is betting on Agent Cloud to govern AI agents like Claude and Gemini as a new revenue line. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Cohesity (merged with Veritas). Cohesity absorbed Veritas in late 2024 and is now closer to Rubrik's scale, while Commvault and Veeam push rival AI feature claims. Could a giant copy it? Probably.
03
What protects it. Backup software gets wired deep into a company's storage and recovery workflows, so ripping it out is risky and expensive, and hyperscalers stay neutral rather than compete directly.
What would change this call
Rubrik's subscription NRR in FY27 quarterly reports falls below about 110%. Would show peers like Cohesity-Veritas or Veeam are winning renewal dollars away from Rubrik.
Subscription ARR growth drops well below the ~27% guided pace in next 2-4 quarters. Would indicate slowing new-logo capture versus Veeam, Commvault, or Druva.
Rubrik Agent Cloud and Strata.io move from private preview to paid adoption with disclosed customer counts by H2 2026. Would show the AI-governance expansion is generating real revenue, not just roadmap talk.
Key numbers
  • Subscription net revenue retention around 120% (Apr 2026)
  • 2,946 customers paying $100K+ ARR, up 24% YoY (Apr 2026)
  • FY27 revenue guidance $1.638 to $1.648 billion (Jun 2026)
Named risks
  • Cohesity-Veritas integration and Commvault/Veeam AI-parity claims could erode NRR over coming quarters. Severity: medium
  • Strata.io identity resilience features remain in private preview as of June 2026, unproven revenue driver. Severity: medium
  • Continued director insider selling (291,321 shares as of July 16, 2026) pressuring stock sentiment. Severity: low
  • Wind-down of material-rights revenue recognition creates reported revenue deceleration distinct from underlying ARR growth. Severity: medium
  • Agent Cloud governance layer for third-party AI agents is speculative and unproven as a retention or new-logo driver. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
CohesitycontestingMerged with Veritas in late 2024, forming a similarly-capable rival still integrating as of mid-2026
VeeamcontestingMaking AI feature-parity claims against Rubrik through 2026, not yet reflected in NRR erosion
CommvaultcontestingCompeting on AI feature parity in 2026; typical deals overlap in $192K to $602K range per ControlMonkey, 2026-02-24
DruvacontestingCloud-native SaaS backup peer competing directly in same backup/recovery category
Hyperscalers (AWS, Azure)losing toStructurally blocked from neutral cross-cloud recovery role; Microsoft chose to invest in Rubrik in 2021 rather than compete
Questions people ask
Is Rubrik profitable in 2026?
Not on a GAAP basis: Rubrik posted a $348.8M net loss for fiscal year 2026 (ended Jan 31, 2026). But Q1 FY27 (ended April 30, 2026) showed non-GAAP EPS of $0.16 and free cash flow of $74M, a 19% FCF margin, beating consensus loss estimates.
Who owns Rubrik and is it publicly traded?
Rubrik trades on the NYSE as RBRK. It IPO'd April 25, 2024 at $32/share, raising $752M at a $5.6B valuation. Microsoft holds a minority stake from a 2021 investment (~$4B valuation) and co-founder Bipul Sinha remains CEO and Chairman.
Could AI replace Rubrik's backup and recovery business?
Unlikely soon: Rubrik's core value is deep, capacity-priced enterprise contracts and embedded infrastructure with 120% net revenue retention as of April 30, 2026. Instead of being replaced, Rubrik launched Agent Cloud to govern third-party AI agents from Google, Anthropic, and AWS in 2026.
Who is Rubrik's biggest competitor?
Cohesity, which merged with Veritas in late 2024, is Rubrik's largest direct rival, alongside Veeam and Commvault, both making AI feature-parity claims in 2026. Hyperscalers like AWS and Azure are structurally blocked from being neutral cross-cloud recovery competitors.
Is Rubrik laying off employees or growing headcount?
Rubrik is growing, not cutting. Macrotrends reports 3,797 employees in fiscal 2026, up 18.7% from 3,200 the prior year, and Revelio Labs found active job postings up 89% in 2025. No Rubrik-specific layoffs were found as of mid-2026.
How fast is Rubrik's revenue growing?
FY26 revenue (ended Jan 31, 2026) hit $1.32B, up 48.5% year over year. Q1 FY27 (ended April 30, 2026) revenue was $387.1M, up 39% YoY, with subscription ARR of $1.57B up 32%. FY27 guidance targets ~27% subscription ARR growth.
Timeline
  • 2026-06-09Rubrik launches Agent Cloud integration with Anthropic Claude Code and Claude Cowork
  • 2026-06-08Rubrik acquires Strata.io, launches Identity Continuity and Identity Roll Forward in private preview
  • 2026-06-08Six global systems integrators sign as Rubrik Agent Cloud launch partners
  • 2026-06-04Rubrik reports Q1 FY27 results, raises FY27 subscription ARR guidance to ~27% growth
  • 2026-04-22Rubrik integrates Agent Cloud with Google's Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform
  • 2026-03-11Rubrik reports Q4 and full FY26 results, revenue up 46% YoY
  • 2024-04-25Rubrik IPOs on NYSE at $32 per share, raising $752 million
  • 2023-08Rubrik acquires Laminar Security for $200 million
  • 2021-08-17Microsoft makes strategic equity investment in Rubrik at ~$4B valuation
Revision history
21 July 2026
First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources