Is SAIC profitable in 2026?

Yes. SAIC guided FY2027 adjusted EPS of $9.90-10.10 and free cash flow over $600 million, and reported a record 9.4% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q1 FY2027 (quarter ended May 1, 2026, reported June 1, 2026).

Is SAIC losing business to Leidos?

Yes, partly. SAIC management forecast about $400 million of organic revenue contraction in FY2027 from lost enterprise-IT recompetes, while Leidos generates roughly $17 billion in revenue versus SAIC's approximately $7.3 billion, as of March 2026.

Could AI replace SAIC's contractors?

Unlikely for classified mission work, which requires security clearances and cleared facilities AI vendors lack, but commoditized enterprise-IT labor is compressible; SAIC itself is de-emphasizing that segment as of its June 2026 Q1 FY2027 earnings call.

Who is SAIC's biggest competitor?

Leidos (~$17 billion revenue, spun off from SAIC in 2013) and Booz Allen Hamilton (~$11.2 billion revenue) are SAIC's largest rivals as of March 2026, both outpacing SAIC's roughly $7.3 billion scale and winning recompetes.

SAIC is a publicly traded, independent company on Nasdaq under ticker SAIC, with no parent company; it has traded publicly since a 2006 IPO by its legacy predecessor entity, which raised about $1.245 billion.

Did SAIC's CEO change recently?

Yes. Toni Townes-Whitley departed abruptly in October 2025 without a disclosed reason; Jim Reagan, a former Leidos CFO, was named permanent CEO on February 17, 2026 after serving as interim.

Cybersecurity companies · United States

SAIC

saic.com ↗

SAIC runs IT, cybersecurity, and engineering programs for US defense and civilian agencies.

Defensible for now

Assessed 21 July 2026 · Evidence as of 21 July 2026

Real protection, with named pressure against it.

On the recordSince 21 July 2026 · Checkable from early September 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 FY2027 earnings report showing recompete win rate and SilverEdge integration progress

The call

SAIC's clearance based position keeps the business alive, but Leidos and Booz Allen are taking the growth while SAIC bets on SilverEdge and mission engineering to stop the bleeding.

SAIC sells technology and engineering services to the U.S. government, especially for classified defense work. The company is hard to replace because the government requires security clearances and long-term relationships to handle secret projects, and bigger rivals like Leidos and Booz Allen are already winning the same work SAIC used to do. The real question is whether SAIC's new focus on artificial intelligence tools and mission-critical software (through recent deals like SilverEdge) can stop it from losing ground to those larger competitors and actually start growing again, or whether it becomes a shrinking company that just pays dividends.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. Frontier AI labs are locked out of classified work by clearance and facility rules, so SAIC uses AI tools internally rather than losing to them. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.

Bigger players: Leidos, Booz Allen Hamilton, CACI, GDIT. Bigger rivals are winning recompetes on enterprise IT contracts, driving roughly $400 million of organic revenue loss forecast for FY2027. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. Security clearances, classified facility access, and entrenched positions on IDIQ contracts keep new entrants and AI labs out of the bidding entirely.

What would change this call

SAIC reports organic revenue growth or continued contraction in Q2 FY2027 earnings (expected September 2026). Shows whether recompete losses to Leidos/Booz Allen are stabilizing or worsening.
Outcomes of major enterprise-IT and mission-engineering recompetes against Leidos, Booz Allen, CACI, or GDIT through FY2027. Indicates whether SAIC's pivot to differentiated IP (SilverEdge, REVA/DAX) is offsetting share loss.
Civilian segment revenue trend and any further executive departures following Townes-Whitley's exit. Reflects whether CEO Jim Reagan has stabilized the weaker civilian business unit.

Key numbers

Backlog $22.9B, up 2.5% YoY (2026-06-01)
~$400M organic revenue headwind forecast FY2027 (2026-03-16)
Record adjusted EBITDA margin 9.4% (2026-06-01)

Named risks

Federal appropriations uncertainty and shutdown risk threatens contract funding. Severity: high
Continued organic revenue contraction (~$400M forecast FY2027) from lost enterprise-IT recompetes to Leidos and Booz Allen. Severity: high
Leadership instability: abrupt Oct 2025 CEO departure and civilian EVP exit ahead of Feb 2026 permanent CEO installation. Severity: medium
AI-driven compression of commoditized enterprise-IT labor, the segment SAIC is already shrinking in. Severity: medium
DOGE-driven federal civilian workforce cuts (~9% by March 2026) disrupting agency demand and procurement timelines. Severity: medium

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Leidos	gaining on	SAIC forecasts ~$400M organic contraction FY2027 from lost recompetes; Leidos ~$17B vs SAIC ~$7.3B, Mar 2026
Booz Allen Hamilton	gaining on	~$11.2B revenue with stronger AI/cyber advisory brand vs SAIC's ~$7.3B, Mar 2026
CACI International	contesting	Comparable revenue scale, competes for same federal IDIQs as SAIC
GDIT (General Dynamics IT)	contesting	Competes directly for federal enterprise-IT and mission contracts

Questions people ask

Is SAIC profitable in 2026?: Yes. SAIC guided FY2027 adjusted EPS of $9.90-10.10 and free cash flow over $600 million, and reported a record 9.4% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q1 FY2027 (quarter ended May 1, 2026, reported June 1, 2026).
Is SAIC losing business to Leidos?: Yes, partly. SAIC management forecast about $400 million of organic revenue contraction in FY2027 from lost enterprise-IT recompetes, while Leidos generates roughly $17 billion in revenue versus SAIC's approximately $7.3 billion, as of March 2026.
Could AI replace SAIC's contractors?: Unlikely for classified mission work, which requires security clearances and cleared facilities AI vendors lack, but commoditized enterprise-IT labor is compressible; SAIC itself is de-emphasizing that segment as of its June 2026 Q1 FY2027 earnings call.
Who is SAIC's biggest competitor?: Leidos (~$17 billion revenue, spun off from SAIC in 2013) and Booz Allen Hamilton (~$11.2 billion revenue) are SAIC's largest rivals as of March 2026, both outpacing SAIC's roughly $7.3 billion scale and winning recompetes.
Who owns SAIC?: SAIC is a publicly traded, independent company on Nasdaq under ticker SAIC, with no parent company; it has traded publicly since a 2006 IPO by its legacy predecessor entity, which raised about $1.245 billion.
Did SAIC's CEO change recently?: Yes. Toni Townes-Whitley departed abruptly in October 2025 without a disclosed reason; Jim Reagan, a former Leidos CFO, was named permanent CEO on February 17, 2026 after serving as interim.

Timeline

2026-06-29SAIC wins $50.6M Navy torpedo-defense task order
2026-06-09SAIC awarded $192M USAF ABMS Digital Infrastructure contract
2026-06-01Q1 FY2027 results: revenue $1.91B, record 9.4% EBITDA margin, backlog $22.9B
2026-05-28SAIC declares $0.37/share quarterly dividend
2026-03-16Q4 FY2026 earnings call cites organic contraction and ~$400M FY2027 headwind
2026-02-17Jim Reagan named permanent CEO after interim period
2025-12-08SAIC named Leader in IDC MarketScape for both civilian and defense AI services
2025-10-17SAIC closes $205M SilverEdge Government Solutions acquisition
2025-10-06SAIC announces SilverEdge acquisition
2025-08-13SAIC's DAX agentic AI tool achieves DoD Awardable status
2025-05-28SAIC's REVA AI retrieval tool achieves DoD CDAO Awardable status

Revision history

21 July 2026

First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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