WillItSurvive

Stone Co.

Brazilian payments company processing card transactions for small merchants.

Losing its protection
Assessed 21 July 2026 · Evidence as of 21 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 21 July 2026 · Checkable from Aug 13, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings call, testing ARPAC and credit loss stabilization under new CEO Schwening
The call

Stone remains profitable but is losing pricing power to bank-owned acquirers and fintechs, with H2 2026 results the next real test of its turnaround.

Stone Co. processes payments for small businesses in Brazil and makes money doing it (earned about $680 million in the first three months of 2026). The job used to be hard for big banks to do well, so Stone thrived by serving merchants the giants ignored, but now Cielo, Rede, PagBank, and others have woken up and are taking Stone's customers away. The real problem is visible right now: Stone is losing clients, making less money per client (down 11% year-over-year), charging less for its services (profit margins fell from 44% to 42%), and more customers are failing to pay their loans back. A new leader arrived in March 2026 promising to turn things around, but the company will show whether that's actually happening when it reports results in August 2026, with the key question being whether customer losses finally stop and whether bad loans keep growing.

Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI mainly cuts Stone's own costs in underwriting, support, and sales routing; no AI product replaces card acquiring for merchants yet. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Cielo, Rede/Itau, Getnet/Santander, PagBank, and Nubank's NuBusiness. Bank-owned acquirers and fintech rivals keep undercutting Stone's small merchant pricing, pulling ARPAC and active clients down. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.
03
What protects it. A banking license, years of merchant transaction data, and embedded distribution to small merchants Stone already serves make replacement hard.
What would change this call
Q2 2026 earnings Aug 13, 2026 show active clients and ARPAC trend versus Q1's -5% seq. and -11% YoY. Whether client and revenue-per-client losses to rivals are stabilizing or accelerating.
Credit-book NPLs and cost of risk figures in Q2/Q3 2026 versus Q1's +60bps and 21.9%. Whether rising bad loans are containable or spiraling, affecting Stone's ability to compete on credit.
Any reported price cuts or fee reductions by Cielo, Rede, or Getnet through 2026. Whether bank-owned rivals are actively undercutting Stone on pricing to win merchants.
Key numbers
  • Active clients fell 5% sequentially to 4.7M (2026-03-31)
  • ARPAC down 11% YoY to R$247/month (2026-03-31)
  • Cost of risk hit 21.9%, NPLs up 60bps (2026-03-31)
Named risks
  • Rising credit losses with cost of risk near 21.9% and NPLs up 60bps in Q1 2026. Severity: high
  • ARPAC down 11% YoY and active client base down 5% sequentially signal churn and pricing pressure. Severity: high
  • Bank-owned rivals Cielo, Rede and Getnet undercutting on price at scale. Severity: high
  • Higher-for-longer Selic rate (raised to ~14%) increasing funding costs against 2026-2027 guidance. Severity: medium
  • New CEO Schwening (from March 2026) must deliver promised second-half re-acceleration without a track record yet. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Cielogaining on~25% Brazilian acquiring share and R$880B+ TPV vs Stone's smaller share, as of April 2026
Rede (Itau)gaining on~22% market share with aggressive bank-backed MDR pricing, April 2026
PagBank/PagSegurocontesting31 million-plus users cross-selling banking and credit to same MSMB base, April 2026
Nubank (NuBusiness)contestingExpanding small-business banking and acquiring, eroding Stone's merchant wallet share
Mercado PagocontestingLeverages marketplace ecosystem and PIX QR acceptance to win merchants
Getnet (Santander)contestingBank-owned rival focused on cross-border and e-commerce merchants
Questions people ask
Is Stone Co. profitable in 2026?
Yes. In Q1 2026 (quarter ended March 31, 2026) Stone reported adjusted net income of R$549 million, up 3% YoY, with adjusted basic EPS of R$2.19, up 15% YoY, on total revenue of R$3.58 billion.
Who is Stone Co.'s biggest competitor?
Cielo, Brazil's largest acquirer with roughly 25% market share and over R$880 billion in annual TPV as of April 2026, followed by Itau-owned Rede at about 22% share; PagBank and Nubank also contest Stone's merchant base.
Could AI replace Stone Co.?
No. As of the Q4 2025 earnings call (March 2026), management called AI a cost lever for underwriting, support and sales, not a replacement threat, citing Stone's banking license, proprietary merchant transaction data, and regulated infrastructure as durable moats.
Who owns Stone Co.?
Stone (Nasdaq: STNE) is public with about 73% institutional ownership as of 2026 filings. Berkshire Hathaway, an original 2018 IPO investor with roughly 11.3% ownership, fully exited its stake by early 2024.
Did Stone Co. have layoffs?
Headcount was about 16,793 as of FY2024/2025 filings, down 1.74% YoY, following rapid 2020-2022 growth. The February 2026 sale of Linx to TOTVS further reduces Stone's consolidated headcount, though an updated post-divestiture figure is not publicly confirmed.
What is Stone Co.'s market cap?
As of July 21, 2026, Stone's market capitalization was approximately $2.7 billion, with a 52-week trading range of $9.45 to $19.95 on Nasdaq under ticker STNE.
Timeline
  • 2026-08-13Q2 2026 earnings scheduled, first major test of new CEO's second-half re-acceleration promise
  • 2026-05-14Q1 2026 results and 2026-2027 guidance issued; Selic rate assumption raised to ~14%
  • 2026-05-04Extraordinary dividend of $2.53 per share paid, funded by Linx sale proceeds
  • 2026-03-01Mateus Schwening becomes CEO, succeeding Pedro Zinner as non-executive chairman
  • 2026-02-27Stone closes sale of Linx software subsidiary to TOTVS for about R$3.05 billion
  • 2026-02-20Brazilian antitrust regulator CADE unconditionally approves Linx sale
  • 2026-01-07Stone announces CEO transition to Mateus Schwening effective March 2026
  • 2024-01Berkshire Hathaway fully exits its StoneCo position
  • 2020Stone acquires Linx software business for R$6.7 billion
  • 2018StoneCo IPOs on Nasdaq, raising about $1.5 billion with Berkshire Hathaway as anchor investor
Revision history
21 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources