Is TC Energy profitable in 2026?

Yes. TC Energy guided 2026 comparable EBITDA of $11.6 to $11.8 billion, up from $11.0 billion in full year 2025, per its February 13, 2026 fourth quarter and full year results release.

Could AI replace TC Energy's pipeline business?

No. TC Energy's revenue comes from 94,000 km of physical pipeline under 20 year take or pay contracts and regulatory rights of way, which software cannot replicate. AI is used internally for forecasting and maintenance, not as a substitute for the pipeline product.

TC Energy is a widely held public company with no controlling parent, trading as TRP on the TSX and NYSE. Its market capitalization was approximately CA$103.7 billion as of July 26, 2026, per gurufocus.com.

Is TC Energy laying off workers?

Headcount fell from about 7,477 employees in 2022 to 6,574 as of December 31, 2025, a 1.41% year over year drop, largely reflecting the October 2024 South Bow spinoff moving liquids staff off TC Energy's books, per stockanalysis.com data dated 2026-06-25.

What happened with TC Energy's South Bow spinoff?

TC Energy completed the spinoff of its Liquids Pipelines business, including the Keystone Pipeline, into South Bow Corporation on October 1, 2024. Shareholders received 0.2 South Bow shares per TC Energy share, and TC Energy retained no ownership stake.

Who is TC Energy's biggest competitor?

Enbridge is TC Energy's largest North American pipeline peer, with a market capitalization of roughly $124.5 billion as of May 26, 2026, versus TC Energy's approximately CA$103.7 billion, according to Hudson Labs peer comparison data.

Oil and gas companies · Canada

TC Energy Corporation

tcenergy.com ↗

TC Energy runs 94,000 km of North American natural gas pipelines under long-term contracts.

Hard to displace

Assessed 26 July 2026 · Evidence as of 26 July 2026

Strong structural protection; the business model survives ai pressure.

On the recordSince 26 July 2026 · Checkable from July 30, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings call with updated capex and EBITDA guidance

The call

TC Energy's pipelines are locked in by decades-long contracts and regulatory approval, with AI power demand adding new growth rather than threatening the existing business.

TC Energy owns and operates 94,000 kilometers of natural gas pipelines that carry over 30% of the gas flowing across North America. The company has signed 20-year contracts with large, creditworthy customers who promise to pay whether they use the gas or not, which locks in predictable cash flow. No competitor or new technology can easily duplicate this because you cannot build new pipelines overnight, governments control the permits for decades, and landowners have agreed to let the pipes cross their property. The one thing that could change the picture is politics: if U.S. states decide that regular electricity customers, not gas companies, should pay for upgrading the power grid to handle data centers and artificial intelligence, then the demand for natural gas could fall short of what TC Energy is counting on.

Why

AI pressure: AI data center power demand (indirect beneficiary, not predator). AI data centers are driving new gas demand; Crossroads and Ohio laterals are 2.5x and 3x oversubscribed from this buildout. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: None apparent. No large rival is taking pipeline volume or contracts from TC Energy; capacity is sold out and expanding, not contested. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. 20-year take-or-pay contracts with investment-grade utilities and regulatory approvals that took years to secure and cannot be quickly duplicated.

What would change this call

LNG Canada FID decision enabling Coastal GasLink Phase 2 by 2027. Shows whether TC Energy's next major growth pipeline actually proceeds.
West Coast Pipeline (~$35B) ownership structure and FID timing announced. Indicates whether large uncontracted growth project converts to real backlog.
Wisconsin and other state rulings on AI data-center power cost allocation in 2026. Tests whether political pushback slows gas-demand tailwind and FID conversions.

Key numbers

94,000 km network moves 30%+ of North American gas (2026-07-26)
2026 EBITDA guidance $11.6B to $11.8B (2026-02-13)
26 straight years of dividend increases (2026-02-13)

Named risks

Coastal GasLink Phase 2 growth stalls if LNG Canada FID is delayed or cancelled. Severity: medium
US Ratepayer Protection Pledge and state fights over data-center grid costs could slow gas demand tailwind. Severity: medium
Reputational spillover from South Bow's $70M Keystone spill settlement despite legal separation. Severity: low
$35 billion West Coast Pipeline Project ownership and FID status unclear as of July 2026. Severity: medium
Serious pipeline incident could trigger direct regulatory action against TC Energy. Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Enbridge	contesting	Market cap ~$124.5B vs TC Energy's ~CA$103.7B as of mid-2026
Kinder Morgan	contesting	KMI market cap ~$75B, smaller than TC Energy, per May 2026 peer data
Williams Companies	contesting	Transports ~33% of US gas vs TC Energy's 30%+ North American share, May 2026
South Bow	contesting	Spun off Oct 2024 as separate crude pipeline competitor; settled $70M spill case Jul 2026
Pembina Pipeline	contesting	Separate $4.6B Alberta data-center power project reported alongside TC Energy's, Jul 2026

Questions people ask

Is TC Energy profitable in 2026?: Yes. TC Energy guided 2026 comparable EBITDA of $11.6 to $11.8 billion, up from $11.0 billion in full year 2025, per its February 13, 2026 fourth quarter and full year results release.
Could AI replace TC Energy's pipeline business?: No. TC Energy's revenue comes from 94,000 km of physical pipeline under 20 year take or pay contracts and regulatory rights of way, which software cannot replicate. AI is used internally for forecasting and maintenance, not as a substitute for the pipeline product.
Who owns TC Energy?: TC Energy is a widely held public company with no controlling parent, trading as TRP on the TSX and NYSE. Its market capitalization was approximately CA$103.7 billion as of July 26, 2026, per gurufocus.com.
Is TC Energy laying off workers?: Headcount fell from about 7,477 employees in 2022 to 6,574 as of December 31, 2025, a 1.41% year over year drop, largely reflecting the October 2024 South Bow spinoff moving liquids staff off TC Energy's books, per stockanalysis.com data dated 2026-06-25.
What happened with TC Energy's South Bow spinoff?: TC Energy completed the spinoff of its Liquids Pipelines business, including the Keystone Pipeline, into South Bow Corporation on October 1, 2024. Shareholders received 0.2 South Bow shares per TC Energy share, and TC Energy retained no ownership stake.
Who is TC Energy's biggest competitor?: Enbridge is TC Energy's largest North American pipeline peer, with a market capitalization of roughly $124.5 billion as of May 26, 2026, versus TC Energy's approximately CA$103.7 billion, according to Hudson Labs peer comparison data.

Timeline

2026-07-20Valhalla North and Berland River NGTL System projects placed in service
2026-07-14South Bow agrees to $70 million settlement over 2022 Keystone Mill Creek spill
2026-07-03$35 billion West Coast Pipeline Project submitted to Canadian PM Mark Carney
2026-05-08TC Energy approves $1.5 billion Appalachia Supply Project, in-service 2030
2026-05-01Crossroads expansion 2.5x, Ohio data-center lateral 3x oversubscribed
2026-03-25Coastal GasLink Phase 2 advances with new commercial agreements
2026-02-13FY2025 results: EBITDA $11.0B, 2026 guidance $11.6-11.8B, 26th dividend hike
2024-10-01TC Energy completes South Bow spinoff of Liquids Pipelines business

Revision history

26 July 2026

First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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