What is TM's biggest risk?

The main watch-item is TM's 5G access shifting to U Mobile after DNB's February 2026 exit notice, since U Mobile was rated the fastest 5G network in both Q3 and Q4 2025. A related pressure point is DNB arbitration, which could raise TM's mobile cost structure, though no hyperscaler has yet built around TM's cable landing stations as of the July 2026 assessment. Readers can track TM Nxera Phase 1's targeted commercial launch in the second half of 2026 as a concrete milestone.

Is TM in financial trouble?

No signs of that in the numbers: FY2025 group revenue was RM11.9 billion (up 1.4%, year ended 2025-12-31), with EBIT around RM2.0 billion and operating cash flow near RM2.5 billion. Q4 2025 revenue alone hit RM3.26 billion, up 6.8% year-on-year, and the company paid a FY2025 total dividend of 31.0 sen per share.

Who are TM's biggest competitors?

In mobile, CelcomDigi holds about 47% subscriber share and topped Malaysia's 2025 telecom brand value ranking, while Maxis holds roughly 27.7% share and pushes enterprise cloud and Gen-AI bundles. TIME dotCom is TM's closest direct rival in fixed fibre and wholesale data centers, and U Mobile is taking over TM's 5G access role after DNB's February 2026 exit notice.

Is TM at risk from AI disruption?

AI looks like upside rather than a threat for TM as of the July 2026 assessment: its TM Nxera data-center project in Johor rents power and land to AI workloads rather than losing customers to AI-driven cloud shifts. Hyperscalers like AWS, Microsoft, and Google are building their own Malaysia data centers, but TM's control of land and power access makes its position difficult to replicate. TM's target is over 90% utilisation across its KVDC and IPDC data centers by end-2026.

Can big tech companies bypass TM's infrastructure?

As of July 2026, that threat is flagged as 'building' but not yet realized: TM's control over cable landing rights and network reach makes it difficult for challengers to replicate. DNB and hyperscaler direct-build deals are the ones to watch, but no hyperscaler has bypassed TM's cable landing rights to date.

How does TM compare to its closest peers?

Within its telecom peer group, TM stands out for pushing into AI data centers while showing no signs of customer loss on its fibre and cable base, as of the July 2026 assessment. It shares a similarly low level of customer-loss pressure with some larger global names like AIS and Microsoft, so it isn't uniquely alone at the top on that measure.

Telecom operators · state-owned · Malaysia

Telekom Malaysia (TM)

tm.com.my ↗

Malaysia's national telecom, owns the fixed fibre backbone, submarine cables, and broadband wholesale layer.

Hard to displace

Assessed 30 July 2026 · Evidence as of 30 July 2026

Strong structural protection; the business model survives ai pressure.

On the recordSince 30 July 2026 · Checkable from end-2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Malaysia's MSAP wholesale access-pricing review outcome

The call

TM's fibre and wholesale position sits behind government ownership and regulation, while its AI-data-centre bet now competes with hyperscalers building their own Malaysian capacity.

Telekom Malaysia runs the country's main telephone lines, internet cables, and data connections. It is hard to replace because the government owns more than half the company and it controls Malaysia's backbone fiber network and undersea cables that competitors cannot build around. The company makes steady cash but does not grow much, though a new joint venture called TM Nxera is building data centers that could benefit from artificial intelligence demand. What matters most: whether the government will let it raise prices fairly in a review coming at the end of 2026, and whether the new data centers in Johor open on time next year.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. AI mostly feeds TM by driving demand for data-centre power and fibre capacity, while trimming its own call-centre and billing costs. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: AWS, Microsoft, Google building their own data centres in Johor. Hyperscalers standing up their own Malaysia data centres could pull demand away from TM Nxera's colocation and power capacity. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. Government golden share, 53%+ combined state and pension-fund ownership, and a regulated national fibre monopoly that blocks domestic overbuilders.

What would change this call

MSAP wholesale-access-pricing revision outcome published near end-2026. Would show whether regulator is compressing TM's backbone wholesale margins.
TM Nxera Johor 64MW data-centre phase reaches commercial service in H2 2026 as targeted. Would show whether the AI-datacentre growth optionality is materializing on schedule.
Updates in the US DOJ wire-fraud case against three US-subsidiary executives (from May 2026 prosecution). Would show whether governance issues are contained to the US unit or reach group leadership.

Key numbers

FY2025 revenue RM11.9B, up 1.4% YoY (2026-06-30)
EPF, Khazanah, KWAP hold 53.03% combined stake (2026-05-29)
TM Nxera Johor 64MW phase targets H2 2026 launch (2026-07-30)

Named risks

US DOJ wire fraud prosecution of three TM US-subsidiary executives over alleged $20M+ scheme, May 2026. Severity: high
MSAP wholesale access-pricing revision due end-2026 could compress backbone economics. Severity: medium
TM Nxera Johor 64MW phase commissioning could slip beyond H2 2026 target or underdeliver on utilisation. Severity: medium
Slow core revenue growth (~1.4-2% YoY) limits organic upside outside AI data-centre optionality. Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
CelcomDigi	losing to	Named Malaysia's most valuable telecoms brand by Brand Finance, citing postpaid and fibre growth, 2026-06-09
Maxis	contesting	Reports ~27.7% mobile subscriber share and 9.98M subscribers in FY2025 (vendor-claimed)
U Mobile	losing to	Recognized by Ookla as Malaysia's fastest 5G network for Q3/Q4 2025
Singtel (Nxera)	contesting	Simultaneously TM's JV partner and regional AI data-centre infrastructure competitor as of 2026-07-16

Questions people ask

What is TM's biggest risk?: The main watch-item is TM's 5G access shifting to U Mobile after DNB's February 2026 exit notice, since U Mobile was rated the fastest 5G network in both Q3 and Q4 2025. A related pressure point is DNB arbitration, which could raise TM's mobile cost structure, though no hyperscaler has yet built around TM's cable landing stations as of the July 2026 assessment. Readers can track TM Nxera Phase 1's targeted commercial launch in the second half of 2026 as a concrete milestone.
Is TM in financial trouble?: No signs of that in the numbers: FY2025 group revenue was RM11.9 billion (up 1.4%, year ended 2025-12-31), with EBIT around RM2.0 billion and operating cash flow near RM2.5 billion. Q4 2025 revenue alone hit RM3.26 billion, up 6.8% year-on-year, and the company paid a FY2025 total dividend of 31.0 sen per share.
Who are TM's biggest competitors?: In mobile, CelcomDigi holds about 47% subscriber share and topped Malaysia's 2025 telecom brand value ranking, while Maxis holds roughly 27.7% share and pushes enterprise cloud and Gen-AI bundles. TIME dotCom is TM's closest direct rival in fixed fibre and wholesale data centers, and U Mobile is taking over TM's 5G access role after DNB's February 2026 exit notice.
Is TM at risk from AI disruption?: AI looks like upside rather than a threat for TM as of the July 2026 assessment: its TM Nxera data-center project in Johor rents power and land to AI workloads rather than losing customers to AI-driven cloud shifts. Hyperscalers like AWS, Microsoft, and Google are building their own Malaysia data centers, but TM's control of land and power access makes its position difficult to replicate. TM's target is over 90% utilisation across its KVDC and IPDC data centers by end-2026.
Can big tech companies bypass TM's infrastructure?: As of July 2026, that threat is flagged as 'building' but not yet realized: TM's control over cable landing rights and network reach makes it difficult for challengers to replicate. DNB and hyperscaler direct-build deals are the ones to watch, but no hyperscaler has bypassed TM's cable landing rights to date.
How does TM compare to its closest peers?: Within its telecom peer group, TM stands out for pushing into AI data centers while showing no signs of customer loss on its fibre and cable base, as of the July 2026 assessment. It shares a similarly low level of customer-loss pressure with some larger global names like AIS and Microsoft, so it isn't uniquely alone at the top on that measure.

Timeline

2026-07-16Johor 64MW data-centre phase reaches structural topping-out, targets H2 2026 commercial service
2026-06-30TM reports FY2025 revenue RM11.9B (+1.4% YoY), EBIT RM2.0B, TSR 23.5% at 41st AGM
2026-05US DOJ charges three TM US-subsidiary executives with wire fraud over alleged $20M+ scheme
2026-01-16Q4 2025 revenue rises 6.8% YoY to RM3.26B; FY2025 dividend totals 31.0 sen/share
2026-01-11TM Nxera signs 280MW power-supply deal with Tenaga Nasional
2025-07-25TM Global reported expanding GPUaaS and data-centre/fiber footprint for AI demand
2024-12TM Global launches GPU-as-a-service (GPUaaS)
2024TM signs 51:49 JV with Singtel's Nxera for up to 280MW AI-ready Johor data-centre campus
1984-10-12Telekom Malaysia incorporated, successor to Malaysian Telecommunications Department (1946)

Head to head

CelcomDigi vs Telekom Malaysia (TM)

Revision history

30 July 2026

First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

In the same band

Advanced Info Service (AIS)Microsoft HKT Limited