Is Tempus AI profitable in 2026?

No. Tempus AI remains GAAP unprofitable, with Q1 2026 GAAP EPS of -$0.71 versus a -$0.10 forecast. The company guides to only ~$65M Adjusted EBITDA on $1.59-1.60B FY2026 revenue, reported May 5, 2026, showing thin non-GAAP profitability but no durable GAAP net income yet.

Could AI replace Tempus AI?

Not easily. Tempus's moat rests on 500+ petabytes of multimodal data, CLIA-certified labs, FDA/reimbursement infrastructure, and multi-year pharma contracts, hard for a pure AI model to replicate. However, a May 2025 Spruce Point short report and resulting securities suit allege Tempus itself overstates its AI capabilities.

Who is Tempus AI's biggest competitor?

Guardant Health is Tempus's most direct rival, locked in active patent infringement litigation transferred to a new district as of June 2026. Natera leads in MRD testing, which pushed Tempus to announce a ~$1.5B acquisition of Personalis on July 20, 2026 to close the gap.

Is Tempus AI being sued?

Yes. A securities class action alleging AI-capability overstatement, stemming from a May 2025 short report, is consolidated in N.D. Illinois as of May 2026. Tempus also faces separate genetic privacy litigation and ongoing patent infringement litigation with Guardant Health as of 2026.

Tempus AI is a public company (Nasdaq: TEM) founded and led by CEO/Chairman Eric Lefkofsky. It IPO'd June 14, 2024 at $37/share, raising ~$411M, and had a market cap of roughly $9.4B as of July 20, 2026.

How fast is Tempus AI growing revenue?

FY2025 revenue reached approximately $1.27B, up about 83% year over year. Q1 2026 revenue was $348.1M, up 36.1% YoY, with FY2026 guidance raised to $1.59-1.60B, reported by the company on May 5, 2026.

AI companies and labs · United States

Tempus AI

tempus.com ↗

Tempus AI runs genomic testing labs and sells AI tools plus data licenses to drugmakers.

Losing its protection

Assessed 20 July 2026 · Evidence as of 20 July 2026

The structural protection is eroding.

On the recordSince 20 July 2026 · Checkable from July 30, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings report

The call

Tempus has real data and contracts protecting it, but it is still losing money on paper while fighting Guardant in court and defending its AI claims in a securities suit.

Tempus AI analyzes cancer tumor DNA and patient medical records to help doctors pick better treatments. The company has built a real advantage: a huge database of patient information, certified testing labs, and contracts with major drug makers like Pfizer and AstraZeneca that keep customers locked in. However, competitors like Guardant Health, Roche's Foundation Medicine, and Natera are shipping the same kind of product and fighting hard for the same customers, which means Tempus is in a tough battle rather than sitting safely ahead. The company is also bleeding money (losing despite $1.27 billion in sales), facing lawsuits claiming it overstated its AI powers, and battling patent disputes with Guardant, so the outcome depends on whether its new blood-cancer test called MRD can grab market share fast enough to prove the business model works.

Why

AI pressure: Generic foundation models and cheaper genomic-AI tools. Cheaper AI models could commoditize report generation and variant calling, the least differentiated part of Tempus's stack. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: Roche (Foundation Medicine, Flatiron Health) and Guardant Health. Roche and Guardant ship competing genomic tests now, and Guardant is suing Tempus over patents while both chase the same oncology data. Could a giant copy it? Probably.

What protects it. Over 500 petabytes of clinical data plus CLIA labs and multi-year pharma contracts with AstraZeneca, Pfizer, and BMS make switching costly.

What would change this call

Tempus reports MRD test volume growth in Q2/Q3 2026 earnings versus Natera's reported Signatera volume. Shows whether Tempus is actually taking MRD share from Natera or just growing off a small base.
Ruling or settlement in the Guardant Health patent infringement litigation across multiple venues. An injunction or licensing cost against Tempus would confirm Guardant's competitive leverage.
Personalis acquisition closes and reports integrated revenue contribution by early 2027. Successful integration would show Tempus can defend and grow share against Natera and Caris.

Key numbers

FY2025 revenue $1.27B, up 83% YoY (2025-12-31)
Q1 2026 GAAP EPS -$0.71 vs -$0.10 forecast (2026-03-31)
MRD test volume up 500% YoY to 6,500 tests (2026-03-31)

Named risks

Securities class action alleges Tempus overstates AI capabilities, consolidated N.D. Illinois since 2025-05. Severity: high
Ongoing patent infringement litigation with Guardant Health could bring injunctions or licensing costs. Severity: medium
GAAP net losses persist despite revenue growth, Q1 2026 EPS -$0.71 vs -$0.10 forecast. Severity: medium
Potential dilutive equity issuance via ~$200M convertible note and shelf registration. Severity: medium
Personalis acquisition integration could fail to deliver promised MRD share gains from Natera. Severity: medium

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Guardant Health	contesting	Active patent infringement litigation transferred to new district, as of 2026-06
Natera	losing to	Trails in MRD testing share, prompting $1.5B Personalis acquisition on 2026-07-20
Roche (Foundation Medicine/Flatiron)	contesting	Adjacent incumbent with pharma-neutral licensing friction versus Tempus
Biovica	gaining on	Biovica terminated its reference lab agreement with Tempus on 2026-06-30
Caris Life Sciences	contesting	Comparable molecular profiling infrastructure and dataset scale as of 2026

Questions people ask

Is Tempus AI profitable in 2026?: No. Tempus AI remains GAAP unprofitable, with Q1 2026 GAAP EPS of -$0.71 versus a -$0.10 forecast. The company guides to only ~$65M Adjusted EBITDA on $1.59-1.60B FY2026 revenue, reported May 5, 2026, showing thin non-GAAP profitability but no durable GAAP net income yet.
Could AI replace Tempus AI?: Not easily. Tempus's moat rests on 500+ petabytes of multimodal data, CLIA-certified labs, FDA/reimbursement infrastructure, and multi-year pharma contracts, hard for a pure AI model to replicate. However, a May 2025 Spruce Point short report and resulting securities suit allege Tempus itself overstates its AI capabilities.
Who is Tempus AI's biggest competitor?: Guardant Health is Tempus's most direct rival, locked in active patent infringement litigation transferred to a new district as of June 2026. Natera leads in MRD testing, which pushed Tempus to announce a ~$1.5B acquisition of Personalis on July 20, 2026 to close the gap.
Is Tempus AI being sued?: Yes. A securities class action alleging AI-capability overstatement, stemming from a May 2025 short report, is consolidated in N.D. Illinois as of May 2026. Tempus also faces separate genetic privacy litigation and ongoing patent infringement litigation with Guardant Health as of 2026.
Who owns Tempus AI?: Tempus AI is a public company (Nasdaq: TEM) founded and led by CEO/Chairman Eric Lefkofsky. It IPO'd June 14, 2024 at $37/share, raising ~$411M, and had a market cap of roughly $9.4B as of July 20, 2026.
How fast is Tempus AI growing revenue?: FY2025 revenue reached approximately $1.27B, up about 83% year over year. Q1 2026 revenue was $348.1M, up 36.1% YoY, with FY2026 guidance raised to $1.59-1.60B, reported by the company on May 5, 2026.

Timeline

2026-07-20Announced definitive agreement to acquire Personalis for ~$1.5B enterprise value
2026-06-30Biovica terminated its reference lab agreement with Tempus
2026-05-29Held inaugural Investor Day
2026-05-05Reported Q1 2026 revenue $348.1M, raised FY2026 guidance to $1.59-1.60B
2026-05Launched ArteraAI Prostate Test, first prostate pathology algorithm on platform
2025-08-18Short report flagged ~$200M convertible note dilution risk
2025-06-22AstraZeneca/Pathos AI $200M data licensing and foundation-model deal reported
2025-05Spruce Point short report alleged Tempus overstates its AI capabilities
2025-01-21National launch of olivia, AI-enabled personal health concierge app
2024-06-14IPO priced at $37/share, raising ~$411M net proceeds

Revision history

20 July 2026

First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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