The Warehouse Group
New Zealand retailer running The Warehouse, Noel Leeming and Warehouse Stationery chains.
On the record
Checkpoint: Kmart and Bunnings NZ third-party marketplace launch
The call
The Warehouse Group is holding its ground with store presence and brand familiarity while profit gains come mostly from cost-cutting rather than sales growth, just as Kmart and Bunnings prepare a direct online attack.
The Warehouse Group runs discount department stores across New Zealand, competing with Kmart, Bunnings, and now cheap global websites like Temu and AliExpress. It is harder to copy than a pure website because stores cost money to build and staff, but that same cost burden makes it weaker than Kmart, which makes much more profit per store and can undercut prices. The biggest threat is Kmart and Bunnings launching their own online marketplaces before Christmas 2026, which would let them sell the same cheap goods The Warehouse sells but with their larger scale and deeper pockets to absorb losses.
Why
01
AI pressure: AI shopping agents and price-comparison tools (e.g. ChatGPT shopping, Google AI overviews). AI agents that hunt for the cheapest price online increasingly steer price-sensitive Kiwi shoppers straight to Temu and AliExpress instead of The Warehouse. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.
02
Bigger players: Kmart NZ and Bunnings (Wesfarmers). Kmart and Bunnings plan a joint third-party marketplace with 300,000+ items before Christmas 2026, aimed at the exact online shoppers The Warehouse relies on. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.
03
What protects it. A large network of physical stores across New Zealand towns and decades of local brand recognition still bring in shoppers Kmart and online rivals haven't fully reached.
What would change this call
Kmart/Bunnings NZ marketplace launches with 300k+ items before Christmas 2026. Confirms direct online attack on The Warehouse's core positioning.
The Warehouse Group's H1 FY27 results (around March 2027) on same-store sales and margin. Shows whether gains are real recovery or just cost-cutting.
Commerce Commission criminal trial outcome for Noel Leeming 'Price Promise' charges. Could add financial and reputational damage on top of competitive pressure.
The Warehouse Group's H1 FY27 results (around March 2027) on same-store sales and margin. Shows whether gains are real recovery or just cost-cutting.
Commerce Commission criminal trial outcome for Noel Leeming 'Price Promise' charges. Could add financial and reputational damage on top of competitive pressure.
Key numbers
- FY25 net loss NZ$2.8m on NZ$3.09b sales
- H1 FY26 NPAT up 33.6% to NZ$15.7m on cost cuts
- Kmart NZ runs ~44% gross margin vs Warehouse's thin take
Named risks
- Kmart and Bunnings launching competing NZ online marketplace before Christmas 2026.
- Noel Leeming Commerce Commission criminal trial over Price Promise charges filed July 2025.
- Execution risk from 270 head-office role cuts and TCS outsourcing announced Feb 2026.
- Structural margin disadvantage versus Wesfarmers-backed Kmart NZ.
- Share price and market cap near multi-year lows, fragile investor confidence through 2026.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Kmart NZ (Wesfarmers) | losing to | Kmart NZ grew to ~NZ$1.23bn revenue with ~16% operating margin vs Warehouse thin margins, Mar 2025 analysis |
| Kmart and Bunnings (Wesfarmers) | gaining on | Planning NZ third-party marketplace with 300k+ items before Christmas 2026 |
| Briscoe Group | gaining on | Replaced Warehouse Group in S&P/NZX 50 index, June 2025 |
| Temu and AliExpress | gaining on | Cited as eroding Warehouse Group market share over time, per report dated 2026-07-16 |
Questions people ask
- Is The Warehouse Group profitable in 2026?
- Yes for H1 FY26: for the six months to around Sept/Oct 2025, reported operating profit rose 37.7% to NZ$26.9 million and net profit after tax rose 33.6% to NZ$15.7 million (announced 2026-03-26), after a full-year net loss of NZ$2.8 million in FY25 (year to 3 Aug 2025).
- Who is The Warehouse Group's biggest competitor?
- Kmart NZ, owned by Wesfarmers, is the closest direct rival. A March 2025 M&A advisory report found Kmart NZ grew revenue to about NZ$1.23 billion with roughly 44% gross margin and 16% operating margin, well above The Warehouse Group's economics.
- Could AI replace jobs at The Warehouse Group or Noel Leeming?
- The Warehouse Group has deployed SS&C Blue Prism digital workers with generative AI at Noel Leeming for product-content workflows, a case study (2026-05-11) the company associates with NZ$15.3 million in savings, and it was still hiring an AI Engineer as of July 2026 to expand internal AI use.
- Is The Warehouse Group being taken over or acquired?
- No confirmed takeover has occurred. Shares fell about 15% in August 2024 when reported acquisition discussions fell through, and the company remains NZX-listed with market capitalization estimated around NZ$200-345 million during 2026, down sharply year-on-year.
- Why did The Warehouse Group get removed from the NZX 50 index?
- The Warehouse Group was demoted out of the S&P/NZX 50 index in June 2025 after its share price declined, with rival Briscoe Group taking its place, reflecting weakened investor confidence in the retailer.
- Is Noel Leeming in legal trouble?
- Yes. New Zealand's Commerce Commission filed criminal charges in July 2025 against Noel Leeming over alleged Fair Trading Act breaches tied to its 'Price Promise' promotion, following an earlier 2018 conviction and NZ$200,000 fine for a similar offense.
Timeline
- 2026-07-19Live AI Engineer job posting seeking data pipeline and AI deployment support
- 2026-07-16Report: Kmart and Bunnings preparing NZ marketplace launch before Christmas 2026
- 2026-03-26H1 FY26 results: sales NZ$1.6bn, operating profit up 37.7%, NPAT up 33.6% to NZ$15.7m
- 2026-02-03Announced cutting 270 head-office roles, outsourcing functions to TCS
- 2025-10-01FY25 annual results: sales ~NZ$3.09-3.1bn, net loss NZ$2.8 million, no dividend
- 2025-08Mark Stirton promoted from CFO to Group CEO
- 2025-07Commerce Commission files criminal charges against Noel Leeming over Price Promise
- 2025-06Demoted from S&P/NZX 50 index; replaced by Briscoe Group
- 2024-09-25FY24 results: first-ever annual net loss of NZ$54.2 million on NZ$3.0bn sales
- 2024-08Shares fell 15% after reported takeover talks fell through
- 2024-02Torpedo7 sold for NZ$1; TheMarket.com closed later in 2024
Revision history
26 July 2026
First assessed. Little protection left. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- 'Not acceptable', The Warehouse Group posts $54.2m loss (2024-09-25)
- The Warehouse Group announces FY25 Annual Results (2025-10-01)
- Warehouse Group lifts profit on cost cuts as sales edge higher (2026-03-26)
- What's Going On With Briscoes Shares? (2026-07-24)
- WHS Stock Price & Overview
- The Warehouse Group Limited: Neueste Schlagzeilen
- Clare Capital Tech Insights: The Warehouse vs Kmart (2025-03-31)
- Noel Leeming
- Noel Leeming company profile (2025-09-11)
- The Warehouse Group to cut 270 head office roles in major restructure (2026-02-03)
- The Warehouse leaps into the AI future with Google (2018-08-14)
- $15.3Mill Saved with Retail AI Automation (2026-05-11)