Thinkific
Canadian SaaS platform where creators build, host and sell online courses.
The call
Thinkific stays a small, near-breakeven course platform whose growth has slowed to single digits while free AI tools chip away at its core product value.
Thinkific lets people create and sell online courses, and it makes money by taking a cut of course sales through its built-in payment system. The problem is that tools like ChatGPT can now write course outlines, quizzes, and marketing copy for free, making the core product less special, and bigger companies like Kajabi and Shopify can do similar things. The one thing that could save it: if the money it earns from processing course payments grows fast enough to become the real business, then the company stays worth watching, but if that payment revenue also slows down or customer growth stalls completely, then the company starts to look pretty risky.
Why
01
AI pressure: ChatGPT and Claude. ChatGPT and Claude now write course outlines, quizzes and marketing copy for free, cutting into what customers pay Thinkific for. Could AI do the core job? Yes, likely.
02
Bigger players: Shopify or Squarespace. Shopify or Squarespace could bundle course tools into their bigger commerce platforms, undercutting Thinkific's standalone offering. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.
03
What protects it. Embedded payments now cover 62% of platform sales, creating switching costs that go beyond simple course hosting.
What would change this call
Thinkific's Q2 2026 earnings report (expected early August 2026) versus its $18.2-18.5M revenue guidance. A miss would confirm decelerating growth and leaky customer base against rivals like Kajabi.
Whether Thinkific names a permanent CFO after its interim arrangement (as of May 2026). Prolonged vacancy would signal governance instability that can accelerate customer and staff attrition.
Any launch by Shopify or Squarespace of a bundled online-course or cohort feature. Would show larger platforms absorbing Thinkific's core use case and shrinking its addressable market.
Whether Thinkific names a permanent CFO after its interim arrangement (as of May 2026). Prolonged vacancy would signal governance instability that can accelerate customer and staff attrition.
Any launch by Shopify or Squarespace of a bundled online-course or cohort feature. Would show larger platforms absorbing Thinkific's core use case and shrinking its addressable market.
Key numbers
- Q1 2026 revenue $18.7M, up only 5% YoY
- 35,000+ paying customers, $4.23B+ cumulative sales
- Market cap ~CAD $82M, down from $1.2B IPO valuation
Named risks
- Leadership instability: CFO and CPTO both departed within one month in 2026 with only interim coverage.
- Revenue growth decelerated from 80%+ at IPO to 5% YoY by Q1 2026, signaling stalling core business.
- Q2 2026 guidance shows negative adjusted EBITDA margin as AI investment spending compresses profitability.
- Core course-creation value-add is commoditized by free generic AI tools like ChatGPT and Claude.
- Crowded competitive field includes larger, similarly-equipped players (Kajabi, Shopify, Squarespace).
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Kajabi | contesting | Direct all-in-one course and marketing platform competitor, larger private company as of 2026 |
| Shopify | gaining on | Bolted on courses and memberships to its existing creator base by mid-2026 |
| Squarespace | gaining on | Added courses functionality for Squarespace Circle pros, per own guide published 2026-06-23 |
| ChatGPT/Claude (generic AI tools) | gaining on | Free tools already generate course outlines, scripts and quizzes, commoditizing core value-add as of 2026 |
| Udemy | contesting | Competes via marketplace model versus Thinkific's platform model, per 2026-06-02 comparison |
Questions people ask
- Is Thinkific profitable in 2026?
- Barely. FY2025 adjusted EBITDA was $4.1M with $5.6M operating cash flow, but Q2 2026 guidance (issued May 4, 2026) calls for revenue of $18.2-18.5M and a negative adjusted EBITDA margin of -2% to -5%, as AI investment spending pressures margins.
- Could AI replace Thinkific?
- Generic tools like ChatGPT and Claude can already generate course outlines, scripts and quizzes for free, commoditizing Thinkific's original course-creation value-add. Thinkific's defense is its embedded payments rail and 35,000+ customer installed base, not the course-building tool itself, per its 2026-05-04 Q1 results commentary.
- Who is Thinkific's biggest competitor?
- Kajabi is Thinkific's closest direct rival, an all-in-one course and marketing platform competing for the same creator base; Shopify and Squarespace have also added courses and memberships onto their existing commerce platforms as of mid-2026, per Squarespace's own 2026-06-23 guide.
- Who owns Thinkific?
- Thinkific Labs Inc. is publicly traded on the TSX under THNC (OTC as THNCF), having IPO'd April 27, 2021 raising roughly $160-184M CAD. Founders and Rhino Group retained about 79% of shares and 97% of voting power post-IPO through multiple voting shares.
- Has Thinkific launched its own AI product?
- Yes. Thinkific made 'Thinker,' an AI teaching assistant trained on a creator's own content, generally available to Thinkific Plus customers on February 24, 2026, aimed at automating learner support and driving upsell without adding headcount.
- Is Thinkific's growth slowing down?
- Yes. Revenue growth decelerated from over 80% year-over-year around its 2021 IPO to just 9% for full-year 2025 and 5% in Q1 2026 (reported May 4, 2026), with negative EBITDA margin guided for Q2 2026.
Timeline
- 2026-05-04Q1 2026 revenue reported at $18.7M, up 5% YoY; negative EBITDA margin guided for Q2
- 2026-04-15Chief Product and Technology Officer Ryan Donovan departs
- 2026-03-13CFO Corinne Hua steps down, replaced on interim basis by Kevin Wilson
- 2026-03-05FY2025 results reported: revenue $73.2M, up 9% YoY, adjusted EBITDA $4.1M
- 2026-02-24Thinker AI teaching assistant made generally available to Thinkific Plus customers
- 2025-11-14NCIB renewed to repurchase up to ~3.4M shares, about 5% outstanding
- 2025-06-01Brand refresh repositions Thinkific as a 'learning commerce platform'
- 2021-04-27IPO on TSX raises ~$160-184M CAD, valuing company over $1.2B
- 2012-04-11Founded by Greg Smith, Miranda Lievers, Matt Payne, Matt Smith
Revision history
22 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Thinkific Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results (2026-03-05)
- Thinkific Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results (2026-05-04)
- gurufocus.com (2026-07-22)
- Thinkific closes TSX IPO, raising $160 million (2021-04-27)
- Thinkific Announces Chief Financial Officer and Board Transitions (2026-03-05)
- AI investments drive growth, pressure margins By Investing.com (2026-05-04)
- THNC) Number of Employees (2026-07-03)
- Thinkific Labs Inc. Company Profile & Executives - WSJ (2026-01-07)
- An AI Assistant That Personalizes Learner Support at Scale (2026-02-24)
- A Fresh Thinkific and a Fresh Commitment to Our Customers (2026-03-03)
- Thinkific Goes Public on the Toronto Stock Exchange and Raises $129 Million (2021-04-27)
- Thinkific Announces Renewal of Normal Course Issuer Bid for Common Shares (2025-11-14)