Trustly
Swedish open banking company letting shoppers pay merchants straight from bank accounts.
On the record
Checkpoint: Trustly Q3 2026 earnings, testing if constant-currency growth reaccelerates and bond spreads narrow
The call
Trustly still moves real volume through thousands of banks, but slowing growth, bond stress, and card-network rivals building similar rails leave its position unsettled.
Trustly is a payments company that lets people buy things by connecting directly to their bank accounts instead of using credit cards. It built its business over 16 years by connecting to thousands of banks and learning how to spot fraud, which is hard for new competitors to copy. But Visa and Mastercard (the giant payment networks everyone knows) have bought their own bank-connection companies and are now competing directly with Trustly, while Trustly's growth has nearly stopped. The company could turn around if its growth speeds back up again in the next few quarters, or it could lose major customers like PayPal or Booking.com to competitors.
Why
01
AI pressure: OpenAI Instant Checkout / Stripe Agentic Commerce Protocol. AI shopping agents that complete purchases directly could route payments without ever touching Trustly's pay by bank checkout flow. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Visa (via Tink) and Mastercard (via Finicity). Card networks now own the bank-data plumbing Trustly relies on and could ship their own merchant-facing pay by bank product. Could a giant copy it? Probably.
03
What protects it. 16 years of direct bank integrations across 12,000+ banks, licensing, and Azura fraud data that's slow to copy.
What would change this call
Trustly Q2/Q3 2026 constant-currency revenue growth rate published. Shows whether deceleration to 2.4% reported growth is a real trend or one-off.
Trustly bond spread narrows below 1,000bps or widens further. Confirms or corrects credit market's signal of ongoing contract losses.
Visa/Tink or Mastercard/Finicity ships a merchant-facing pay-by-bank checkout product. Would show incumbents directly competing for Trustly's checkout volume.
Trustly bond spread narrows below 1,000bps or widens further. Confirms or corrects credit market's signal of ongoing contract losses.
Visa/Tink or Mastercard/Finicity ships a merchant-facing pay-by-bank checkout product. Would show incumbents directly competing for Trustly's checkout volume.
Key numbers
- Q1 2026 revenue up only 2.4% YoY reported
- Bond trades at 75.50, spread near 1,500bps
- 120M+ users, 12,000+ banks, 9,000+ merchants
Named risks
- Revenue growth deceleration to +2.4% reported YoY in Q1 2026 vs prior years' double-digit gains.
- Bond trading at distressed 75.50 price with ~1,500bps spread signals market doubt on credit quality.
- Visa and Mastercard already own open-banking infrastructure (Tink, Finicity, Aiia) and could ship competing checkout products.
- Unresolved ownership exit: shelved 2021 IPO, contradictory $10bn vs $1.35bn valuations, renewed 'for sale' reports in June 2026.
- Mid-transformation organizational disruption with 24-month program unifying US/Europe units through 2026.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Visa (via Tink) | gaining on | Visa acquired Tink for €1.8bn in 2022, gaining in-house open-banking rails |
| Mastercard (via Finicity/Aiia) | gaining on | Mastercard owns Finicity (2020) and Aiia (2021), building A2A capability |
| Volt, TrueLayer, Yapily, Plaid, Noda | contesting | Crowded field of 10+ direct A2A peers as of May 2026 per Finexer comparison |
| Unnamed larger contract counterparties | losing to | Bond investor cited 'lost larger contracts' pressuring Trustly bond, July 2026 |
Questions people ask
- Is Trustly profitable in 2026?
- Trustly reports positive Adjusted EBITDA, SEK 98.0m in Q1 2026 (+1.9% YoY) and SEK 96.2m in Q4 2025, per its own press releases. However, revenue growth slowed sharply to +2.4% YoY reported (Q1 2026) from +79% TPV growth in 2023, and a bond investor flagged lost larger contracts in July 2026.
- Is Trustly for sale or going public?
- As of June 2026, Swedish-language press reported Trustly is again for sale ('for salu'), per CB Insights. This follows an October 2024 Bloomberg report of a possible sale or US IPO at up to $10bn, though the CEO said in October 2024 an IPO was not around the corner, with the company then valued at $1.35bn.
- Could Visa or Mastercard replace Trustly's pay-by-bank business?
- Visa owns Tink (acquired 2022, €1.8bn) and Mastercard owns Finicity and Aiia, both giving the card networks in-house open-banking rails. Neither has yet shipped a merchant-facing pay-by-bank checkout product competing directly with Trustly as of mid-2026, but both are structurally positioned to do so.
- Who is Trustly's biggest competitor?
- Trustly competes with direct open-banking/A2A peers Volt, TrueLayer, Tink, Yapily, Plaid, Noda, Brite Payments, and Token.io, plus the much larger incumbents Visa and Mastercard, which already own open-banking infrastructure via Tink and Finicity/Aiia acquisitions, respectively.
- How big is Trustly's user base as of 2026?
- Trustly surpassed 120 million users globally as of April 2026, connecting 12,000+ banks and 9,000+ merchants across 30+ markets, and reaching 650 million consumers, according to its own April 7, 2026 press release.
- Why did Trustly's growth slow down in 2026?
- Trustly's Q1 2026 revenue grew just +2.4% YoY reported (SEK 610.8m), down from +79% TPV growth in 2023 and +54% TPV growth in 2024. In constant currency growth was +14%, but a July 2026 bond note cited lost larger contracts and weaker performance as contributing factors.
Timeline
- 2026-07-10Bond investor Sissener buys Trustly bond at distressed 75.50 price, ~1,500bps spread, citing lost contracts
- 2026-06-08Swedish press reports Trustly is again 'for sale' per CB Insights
- 2026-05-27Q1 2026 results: revenue +2.4% YoY reported, +14% constant currency; EBITDA SEK 98.0m
- 2026-04-15Trustly unifies US/Europe org, appoints Group CTO and Group CLO
- 2026-04-07Trustly surpasses 120 million users globally
- 2026-02-25FY2025 TPV surpasses $100bn milestone; company cites 'difficult backdrop'
- 2025-10-01Trustly issues EUR 375m corporate bond
- 2024-10-11Bloomberg reports Nordic Capital exploring sale or US IPO at up to $10bn valuation
- 2024-10-09CEO says IPO 'not around the corner'; valuation cited at $1.35bn
- 2020-06-10BlackRock-led consortium takes minority stake; Nordic Capital remains majority owner
Revision history
21 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Trustly (Wikipedia)
- Trustly reports strong 2024 financial results (2025-06-30)
- Trustly reaches key $100bn milestone in transaction volumes (2026-02-25)
- Trustly Holding AB (publ) publishes its Q1 2026 results (2026-05-27)
- Sissener corporate bond (2026-07-10)
- Nordic snaps up Trustly (2018-03-14)
- Nordic Capital Said to Explore Options for Payment Firm Trustly (2024-10-11)
- Swedish unicorn Trustly says IPO not around the corner despite appointing IPO-experienced CFO (2024-10-09)
- CB Insights company profile (2026-06-08)
- Trustly surpasses 120 million users (2026-04-07)
- Trustly sees nearly 5bn worth of payments (2025-06-30)
- Trustly appoints Group CTO and CLO (2026-04-15)