WillItSurvive
Consumer brands · United States

Under Armour

Under Armour makes performance apparel, footwear, and gear sold through wholesale and its own stores.

Losing its protection
Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from August 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: FY2027 Q1 earnings call
The call

Under Armour is shrinking against Nike and Adidas while younger shoppers move on, and two years of restructuring have not reversed either trend.

Under Armour makes athletic clothing and shoes, competing against Nike and Adidas in the U.S. market. It is hard to stand out because giant companies like Nike control shelf space and customer loyalty, while younger shoppers prefer newer brands like Lululemon and Gymshark that feel fresher. The company's sales have dropped for four straight years, its profit margins are shrinking, and it just lost basketball star Stephen Curry to a Chinese competitor, signaling weakening brand power. The one thing that could turn things around is if sales in North America (its biggest region) stop falling and young shoppers start caring about Under Armour again over the next couple of years; if that does not happen, the company will keep sliding into irrelevance.

Why
01
AI pressure: TikTok Shop and Meta AI ad-targeting tools used by DTC rivals. AI ad-targeting lets Vuori, Alo, and Gymshark reach young shoppers cheaper than Under Armour's shrinking marketing budget can. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.
02
Bigger players: Nike and Adidas. Nike holds ~27% share and Adidas grew 14% currency-neutral last quarter while Under Armour's revenue fell for a fourth straight year. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.
03
What protects it. Wholesale shelf space at retailers like Dick's Sporting Goods and existing licensing deals keep the brand visible while it restructures.
What would change this call
Under Armour's FY2027 Q1 earnings report on North America revenue trend versus the current -8% pace. Shows whether the North American sales decline is stabilizing or deepening.
Next Morning Consult brand tracking update on Under Armour's 18-34 mental market share (currently 7.8%). Shows whether young-consumer brand erosion is reversing or continuing.
Execution of the $605M senior notes refinancing due June 2026. Shows whether financial pressure from the turnaround is easing or worsening.
Key numbers
  • FY26 revenue $4.97B, down ~4% YoY (2026-03-31)
  • 18-34 brand share fell to 7.8% vs 12.2% for 65+ (2026-05-12)
  • Stock down ~76.5% over five years (2026-06-15)
Named risks
  • North America revenue, 60% of total, fell 8% in FY2026 with no reversal yet. Severity: high
  • Brand mindshare collapsing among 18-34 shoppers to 7.8% as of May 2026. Severity: high
  • Senior notes matured June 2026 requiring $605M in restricted investments. Severity: medium
  • Fourth Circuit (Jan 2026) blocked access to $100M D&O insurance tower for litigation. Severity: medium
  • FY2027 guidance embeds $35M Middle East conflict headwind and tariff uncertainty. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Nikelosing toNike holds ~27% global share and $63B cap vs UA's 10% mental market share, May 2026
Adidaslosing toAdidas grew 14% currency-neutral in Q1 2026 while UA revenue fell ~4% in FY26
Gymshark/Alo/Vuorilosing toUA's 18-34 mental market share fell to 7.8% as DTC challengers gained, May 2026
Li-Ninglosing toCurry Brand left UA and signed 10-year deal with Li-Ning, June 2026
Questions people ask
Is Under Armour profitable in 2026?
No. Under Armour posted a $201M net loss in FY2025 and FY2026 revenue fell to $4.97B, down about 4% YoY, with Q4 gross margin down 470bps to 42%. FY2027 guidance (May 12, 2026) projects only $140M-$160M adjusted operating income, not a return to solid net profit.
Is Under Armour losing to Nike and Adidas?
Yes. Nike holds roughly 27% global athletic apparel share and a $63B market cap, while Adidas grew revenue 14% currency-neutral in Q1 2026. Under Armour's own mental market share sat at just 10% overall as of May 18, 2026, versus these incumbents' scale and momentum.
Did Under Armour lose Stephen Curry?
Yes. Under Armour and Stephen Curry agreed to separate the Curry Brand effective November 13, 2025, ending a 12-13 year partnership; the final Curry 13 shoe shipped February 2026, and Curry signed a 10-year deal with China's Li-Ning in June 2026.
Could AI replace Under Armour's business?
Unlikely near-term. Under Armour's AI use is limited to marketing (a 2023 hedgehog lab generative-AI campaign) and personalized shopping tools; its core value, physical manufacturing, textile engineering, and athlete brand equity, remains outside AI's reach as of 2026.
Who owns Under Armour?
Under Armour is publicly traded on the NYSE (UAA/UA). Founder Kevin Plank holds majority voting control through a dual-class share structure and returned as President and CEO in April 2024 after previously stepping down in 2019.
What is Under Armour's biggest competitor?
Under Armour is squeezed between giants Nike (~27% share, $63B market cap) and Adidas (~13% share, 14% growth in Q1 2026) above, and nimble DTC brands like Gymshark and Vuori eroding its 18-34 customer base below, per Morning Consult data from May 18, 2026.
Timeline
  • 2026-06Curry Brand signs 10-year deal with China's Li-Ning after leaving Under Armour
  • 2026-05-12FY2026 results: $4.97B revenue, FY2027 guidance of $140M-$160M operating income issued
  • 2026-02CEO says most disruptive turnaround phase is over; final Curry 13 shoe released
  • 2026-02New CFO Reza Taleghani starts, formerly Samsonite Group CFO
  • 2026-01-20Fourth Circuit denies Under Armour access to extra $100M D&O insurance tower
  • 2025-11-13Under Armour and Stephen Curry agree to separate the Curry Brand
  • 2025-04Robert J. Sweeney (ex-Sycamore Partners, Goldman Sachs) joins board
  • 2024-09-25About 1,000 jobs cut across two restructuring announcements, ~$235M in charges
  • 2024-04Kevin Plank returns as President and CEO
Revision history
23 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources