US Foods Holding
Broadline food distributor moving 39B dollars a year of groceries and supplies to restaurants and institutions.
On the record
Checkpoint: Q2 FY2026 earnings report, testing if Q1 revenue miss was a blip or a trend
The call
US Foods runs on trucks, warehouses, and supplier ties that AI does not touch, so its real fight is with Sysco and PFG over accounts, not with any algorithm.
US Foods delivers food to restaurants and cafeterias from 72 distribution centers across the country, using refrigerated trucks and relationships built over decades. It is hard to copy because you need massive warehouses, expensive cold-chain equipment, and long-standing trust with suppliers and customers; AI chatbots can help salespeople suggest menu items, but they cannot move frozen chicken or replace the physical network. The biggest risk is if Sysco or Performance Food Group (the other two giants) build better technology tools faster, or if antitrust cases against meat suppliers shake up the whole industry.
Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI can automate menu advice and ordering chat but cannot drive a truck of frozen chicken to a diner at 5am. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Sysco and Performance Food Group. Sysco at 81.4B and PFG at 63.3B compete for the same restaurant accounts, but this is share fighting among three giants, not disruption. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. 72 distribution centers, cold chain trucks, and decades of supplier contracts that software cannot replicate.
What would change this call
US Foods Q2 FY2026 earnings release on August 6, 2026. Shows whether Q1's revenue miss versus consensus was a one-off or a trend of losing volume to Sysco or PFG.
Sysco or PFG announcing an AI menu-planning tool matching or beating Menu IQ. Would show a rival closing the digital gap that currently helps US Foods retain independent restaurants.
Independent-restaurant case volume growth rate in upcoming quarterly reports. A drop from the current 4.6% pace would indicate independents shifting to Sysco, PFG, or regional distributors.
Sysco or PFG announcing an AI menu-planning tool matching or beating Menu IQ. Would show a rival closing the digital gap that currently helps US Foods retain independent restaurants.
Independent-restaurant case volume growth rate in upcoming quarterly reports. A drop from the current 4.6% pace would indicate independents shifting to Sysco, PFG, or regional distributors.
Key numbers
- FY2025 net sales about 39.4B dollars
- Q1 FY2026 sales up 2.8% to 9.6B, missed 9.66B consensus
- Independent restaurant case volume grew 4.6% in Q1 FY2026
Named risks
- Antitrust litigation over poultry (Agri Stats, filed April 20, 2026) and beef pricing could affect input costs.
- Q1 FY2026 revenue of $9.6B missed consensus of $9.66B, raising questions about growth trajectory.
- Thin net margin of ~1.7% leaves little buffer against cost inflation or fuel price shocks.
- Sales-advisory and ordering-guidance roles face gradual disintermediation from self-serve AI tools like Menu IQ.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Sysco | gaining on | Sysco's $81.4B FY2025 revenue dwarfs US Foods' $39.4B, remains dominant incumbent as of April 2026 |
| Performance Food Group | gaining on | PFG overtook US Foods in revenue, reaching ~$63.3B FY2025 via 2024 Cheney Brothers acquisition |
| Gordon Food Service | contesting | Private rival with ~$12.9B revenue and retail GFS Stores footprint, as of April 2026 |
| Ben E. Keith Company | contesting | Private regional distributor with ~$7.9B revenue as of April 2026 |
Questions people ask
- Is US Foods Holding profitable in 2026?
- Yes. US Foods reported trailing net income of $676 million and trailing EPS of $2.97 as of July 14, 2026, on FY2025 net sales of approximately $39.4 billion, with net margin around 1.7%.
- Who is US Foods' biggest competitor?
- Sysco Corporation is the largest, with about $81.4 billion in FY2025 revenue versus US Foods' $39.4 billion. Performance Food Group has also overtaken US Foods in revenue, reaching roughly $63.3 billion in FY2025 after its 2024 Cheney Brothers acquisition.
- Could AI replace US Foods' business?
- No. US Foods runs a physical distribution network of 72 distribution centers and a cold-chain fleet that AI cannot substitute. Its Menu IQ AI tool, launched February 23, 2026, is bundled free into the MOXē platform to deepen customer lock-in, not to replace logistics.
- Who owns US Foods Holding?
- US Foods is publicly traded on the NYSE (USFD) with no parent company. As of March 16, 2026, its largest institutional holders were Vanguard (~9.7%) and BlackRock Fund Advisors (~7.8%); market cap was about $21.4 billion as of July 20, 2026.
- Did US Foods ever try to merge with Sysco?
- Yes. Sysco agreed to acquire US Foods for $8.2 billion in December 2013, but the FTC blocked the deal on antitrust grounds in 2015, and it was abandoned, leaving both companies as separate competitors today.
- What legal risks does US Foods face in 2026?
- US Foods filed an antitrust suit against Agri Stats and poultry producers on April 20, 2026 alleging price-fixing, and is a purchaser-class member in a cattle and beef antitrust case where a judge authorized class certification on July 19, 2026.
Timeline
- 2026-07-19Judge authorizes class certification in cattle and beef antitrust case; US Foods is purchaser class member
- 2026-07-14Trailing net income reported at $676M, trailing EPS $2.97
- 2026-05-06US Foods reports Q1 FY2026 sales of $9.6B, up 2.8% YoY, missing $9.66B consensus
- 2026-04-20US Foods files antitrust suit against Agri Stats and poultry producers over price-fixing
- 2026-02-23US Foods launches Menu IQ, AI menu-profitability tool, free within MOXē platform
- 2024-02US Foods acquires IWC Food Service
- 2023-11US Foods acquires Saladino's Foodservice
- 2023-05US Foods acquires Renzi Foodservice
- 2016-05-26US Foods IPOs on NYSE at $23 per share
- 2015FTC blocks proposed $8.2B Sysco-US Foods merger
Revision history
20 July 2026
First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- US Foods Holding Corp. Company Profile & Executives - WSJ (2026-03-16)
- US Foods Reports First Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings (2026-05-06)
- US Foods (USFD) Earnings Date and Reports 2026 (2026-07-14)
- US Foods (USFD) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript (2026-05-07)
- USFD Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q1 CY2026 Earnings (2026-05-07)
- US Foods (2026-07-31)
- US Foods Holding (USFD) Company Profile & Description (2026-07-07)
- US Foods Launches Menu IQ (2026-02-23)
- Top 5 Largest Food Distributors in the US (2026-04-10)
- US Foods, Inc. v. Agri Stats, Inc. et al (2026-04-20)
- US Judge Clears Path for Broad Beef Antitrust Class Actions (2026-07-19)
- Sysco/USF Holding/US Foods, In the Matter of (2021-07-06)