Aeroflot
Russia's majority state-owned flag carrier, dominant on domestic routes.
On the record
Checkpoint: MC-21 jet certification and first deliveries, needed to replace grounded Western fleet
The call
The state keeps Aeroflot flying and dominant at home, while sanctions, an aging Western fleet, and a slipping MC-21 timeline quietly erode what it can actually operate.
Aeroflot is Russia's largest airline, owned mostly by the Russian government. The government props it up with money, priority access to Russian-made planes, and control of key airports, making it nearly impossible to fail as a company. However, Aeroflot faces real problems right now: about one in five of its Western-built planes are grounded because it cannot get parts due to sanctions, its new Russian-made MC-21 aircraft keep missing their delivery dates, and a major computer hack in 2025 shut down over 100 flights and exposed how outdated and poorly protected its systems are. The one thing that matters most is whether the new MC-21 planes actually arrive and work, because without them, Aeroflot's fleet will keep shrinking and falling apart.
Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. No AI product or agent is displacing Aeroflot's flying, booking, or ops functions today. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: None apparent. No named big-company rival is taking Aeroflot's domestic share; the real pressure is sanctions and parts, not a competitor. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. 73.77% state ownership, ~42% domestic share, and Sheremetyevo hub control keep flights running and bailouts flowing.
What would change this call
Whether MC-21 achieves certification and first commercial deliveries by end-2026 as planned. Confirms or disproves the fleet replacement plan is on track versus slipping to 2027-2028.
Completion and pricing of the May 2026 announced 23.76% stake sale. Shows whether privatization proceeds smoothly or faces investor hesitation over sanctions risk.
Any second major cyberattack disrupting Aeroflot flight operations. Would show the July 2025 breach was a structural IT weakness, not a one-off incident.
Completion and pricing of the May 2026 announced 23.76% stake sale. Shows whether privatization proceeds smoothly or faces investor hesitation over sanctions risk.
Any second major cyberattack disrupting Aeroflot flight operations. Would show the July 2025 breach was a structural IT weakness, not a one-off incident.
Key numbers
- State owns 73.77% of Aeroflot
- Adjusted net profit down 49.5% YoY, 9 months 2025
- ~19% of Russia's Western-built fleet grounded, sanctions parts
Named risks
- IT fragility after July 2025 breach, systems reportedly still on Windows XP with unchanged 2022 admin password.
- MC-21 certification and delivery could slip past end-2026 target, straining fleet renewal plan.
- ~19% of Russia's Western-built fleet grounded on sanctions-driven parts shortages.
- 23.76% stake sale execution risk amid market conditions and sanctions overhang.
- Insurers' appeal of $4.5bn lessor ruling and autumn 2026 OP claims trial could reopen financial exposure.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| S7 Airlines | contesting | Russia's largest private carrier, 12.8mn passengers in 2025 vs Aeroflot Group's 55.34mn (2026-05-21) |
| Turkish Airlines | losing to | Displaced Aeroflot on long-haul transit routes after 2022 EU airspace ban, per 2026 sanctions context |
| Emirates and Gulf carriers | losing to | Absorbed transit traffic Aeroflot lost on international routes post-2022 sanctions |
| Chinese carriers (Air China, China Southern) | gaining on | Capturing Russia-China transit traffic as Aeroflot's international access shrank since 2022 |
| Ural Airlines | contesting | Domestic peer posted RUB 143.4bn revenue in 2024, up 29.2% YoY |
Questions people ask
- Is Aeroflot profitable in 2026?
- Aeroflot reported FY2025 net profit of RUB 105.5 billion (+91.8% YoY), but adjusted net profit for the first nine months of 2025 fell 49.5% YoY to $315.3 million, as headline profit was propped up by one-off insurance and lease settlements rather than core operations, per December 2025 data.
- Who owns Aeroflot?
- Russia's Federal Agency for State Property Management (Rosimushchestvo) owns 73.77% of Aeroflot, a stake raised via a 2022 share issuance. In May 2026 the government launched a sale of a further 23.76% stake worth about $634 million, which would leave the state just over 50% if completed.
- Was Aeroflot hacked?
- Yes. On July 28, 2025, pro-Ukraine and Belarusian hacker groups Silent Crow and Cyber Partisans destroyed IT infrastructure, causing over 100 flight cancellations and at least RUB 260 million ($3.3mn) in losses. Investigators later traced entry to a compromised third-party vendor, Bakka Soft, first flagged unremediated in January 2025.
- Could AI replace Aeroflot?
- No. Aeroflot's core advantage is state-granted domestic slot and route access, Sheremetyevo hub dominance, and priority allocation of scarce Russian-built aircraft, none of which frontier AI can replicate. AI's role, as of the July 2026 brief, is limited to booking, scheduling, and back-office edges, not the airline's structural moat.
- Who is Aeroflot's biggest competitor?
- Domestically, S7 Airlines is Aeroflot's main private rival, carrying 12.8 million passengers in 2025 versus Aeroflot Group's 55.34 million. Internationally, Aeroflot has been displaced on long-haul transit routes by Turkish Airlines, Gulf carriers, and Chinese carriers following the 2022 EU airspace ban.
- When will Aeroflot get its Russian-built MC-21 jets?
- Aeroflot closed a deal on June 24, 2026 to acquire 90 Yakovlev MC-21-310 aircraft as part of a plan for 400+ Russian-built jets, with first deliveries targeted for end of 2026, though the timeline is widely seen as at risk of slipping to 2027.
Timeline
- 2026-07-06Report: Aeroflot deal for 90 MC-21s confirmed; ~19% of Russia's Western fleet grounded on sanctions parts shortage
- 2026-06-29Aeroflot approves FY2025 dividends of RUB 21.03bn, first since 2018
- 2026-06-24Aeroflot closes deal to acquire 90 Yakovlev MC-21-310 aircraft
- 2026-05-22Russia launches sale of 23.76% Aeroflot stake (~$634mn)
- 2026-04-22FY2025 IFRS results: revenue RUB 902.26bn, net profit RUB 105.5bn
- 2025-12-11Meduza reveals July 2025 hack originated via unremediated Bakka Soft compromise
- 2025-12-01Nine-month 2025 adjusted net profit down 49.5% YoY to $315.3mn
- 2025-09-08Aeroflot estimates final 36-plane lessor settlements at $1.1bn
- 2025-07-28Cyberattack by Silent Crow and Cyber Partisans cancels 100+ flights
- 2025-06-10UK High Court rules for lessors over insurers on $4.5bn aircraft claims
Revision history
24 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Aeroflot (2026-07-22)
- Russia seeks partial privatisation of state carrier Aeroflot (2026-05-22)
- Aeroflot will pay dividends for 2025 for 21.03 billion rubles (2026-06-29)
- Fleet Strategy, Route Network & Company Analysis Report 2026 (2026-04-22)
- Aeroflot's adjusted net profit totals $315.3 mln for nine months (2025-12-01)
- Russian airlines see overall passenger traffic fall 2.5%, domestic down 3.8% in 2025 (2026-02-02)
- How Ukrainian and Belarusian hackers wreaked havoc on Russia's flagship airline (2025-12-11)
- Aeroflot estimates settlement deals for last 36 planes from foreign lessors at $1.1 bln (2025-09-08)
- Aeroflot agrees to acquire 90 MC-21s (2026-07-06)
- S7 Airlines - Strategic Analysis and Outlook Report 2026 (2026-05-21)
- Aviation disputes legal update on the Russian aircraft lessor policy claims, Lessors win (2025-06-10)
- Insurers Lose $340 Million Russian Aircraft Court Battle (2026-07-09)