WillItSurvive
Industrial materials and energy · United States

Array Technologies

arraytechinc.com ↗

Array Technologies makes ground-mount solar tracker systems that steer panels toward the sun.

Losing its protection
Assessed 25 July 2026 · Evidence as of 25 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 25 July 2026 · Checkable from August 6, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings report, where Array must show the guided jump to $300-320M revenue
The call

Array is growing fast and sitting on record orders, but it still trails Nextracker in share and has no clear technical edge to close that gap.

Array Technologies manufactures solar trackers, the equipment that moves solar panels to follow the sun throughout the day, generating $1.28 billion in revenue with a large backlog of orders. The business is hard to start from scratch because it requires manufacturing scale and customer relationships, but it is not hard to copy or replace because the technology is relatively straightforward and bigger competitors like Nextracker (which controls about half the US market) can out-invest them, while Chinese companies like Arctech add even more competition. The company's real problem is that it earns thin profits on each unit sold and depends heavily on government tax credits and tariff policies that could change, so if Array fails to grow revenue quickly enough or if Nextracker's new robotics and artificial intelligence capabilities pull ahead, Array's position as the number two or three player could erode fast.

Why
01
AI pressure: Nextracker's AI and Robotics division. Nextracker is adding AI-driven controls and robotics to its trackers, a software layer Array has not matched yet. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Nextracker. Nextracker holds roughly half of US tracker share and over a quarter globally, leaving Array boxed into a contested number two spot. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.
03
What protects it. A record $2.4B order backlog and 40% revenue growth give Array room to keep operating even while smaller than Nextracker.
What would change this call
Woodmac or similar tracker releases 2026 US/global tracker market share data by supplier. Would show whether Array is gaining or losing share against Nextracker and GameChange.
Array's Q2 2026 earnings (~Aug 6, 2026) revenue vs guided $300-320M step-up. Would show whether the record backlog is converting to revenue or stalling.
Federal court ruling on Section 301 forced-labor tariff (10-12.5%) effective July 24, 2026. Would show whether tariff costs compress Array's margins relative to competitors.
Key numbers
  • FY2025 revenue $1.28B, up 40% year over year (2025-12-31)
  • Q1 2026 order backlog hit a record $2.4B (2026-03-31)
  • Nextracker holds over 25% global tracker share (2025-12-31)
Named risks
  • Section 301 forced-labor tariffs of 10-12.5% effective July 2026, outcome pending court challenge. Severity: high
  • Thin hardware gross margins (26-27% guided FY2026) leave little buffer against tariff or cost shocks. Severity: medium
  • Oscillating US market position, having already lost #2 to GameChange once in 2024. Severity: high
  • FY2025 carried $103M goodwill impairment and $30M inventory charge tied to prior STI acquisition. Severity: medium
  • Guided Q2 2026 revenue step-up to $300-320M from $223.4M in Q1 requires steep execution. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Nextrackerlosing toNextracker held >25% global and ~50%+ US tracker share as of Dec 2025 vs Array's #2 position
GameChange SolarcontestingOvertook Array for #2 US in 2024 after Array's >35% shipment drop; Array regained #2 by 2025
Arctech Solarlosing toOvertook Array, GameChange, and PV Hardware in global tracker share in 2024
Questions people ask
Is Array Technologies profitable in 2026?
Yes on an adjusted basis. Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $28.8M (12.9% margin) with adjusted net income of $8.8M ($0.06/share), reported May 6, 2026. FY2026 guidance calls for $200-230M adjusted EBITDA on $1.4-1.5B revenue, though FY2025 carried a $103M goodwill impairment.
Who is Array Technologies' biggest competitor?
Nextracker is the dominant rival, holding over 25% global and roughly 50%+ US solar tracker market share as of December 2025, per pv-magazine reporting from June 2026. Array sits in an oscillating #2/#3 US position, having been overtaken by GameChange in 2024 before regaining #2 in 2025.
Could AI replace Array Technologies' business?
No, Array's core is physical hardware manufacturing (torque tubes, motors, foundations) which AI does not replace. Its SmarTrack software already uses machine learning for backtracking and yield optimization (vendor-claimed up to 5% boost, since 2022), but this is an in-house feature, not an external AI threat.
Who owns Array Technologies?
Array went public via a $1.05B IPO on October 15, 2020, with Oaktree Capital and founder Ron P. Corio controlling a combined 57% stake pre-offering. As of June 2026, ownership is dominated by institutions holding roughly 92-100% of float, led by Vanguard, BlackRock, AXA IM, and Point72.
Is Array Technologies losing market share to competitors?
Array lost over 35% of domestic US shipments in 2024, ceding the #2 US spot to GameChange Solar, and was also overtaken globally by China's Arctech Solar that year. It regained #2 in the US by 2025, per Wood Mackenzie data published June 2026, but Nextracker remains dominant.
What is Array Technologies' revenue outlook for 2026?
Array guided FY2026 revenue of $1.4-1.5B as of May 6, 2026, up from FY2025's $1.28-1.30B. Q1 2026 revenue was $223.4M, down 26% year over year, with a record $2.4B orderbook as of March 31, 2026, requiring a steep step-up to $300-320M in Q2.
Timeline
  • 2026-07-24Section 301 forced-labor tariffs of 10-12.5% take effect, challenged in federal court
  • 2026-06-01OmniTrack updated with 2-degree terrain-following flex; DuraTrack D2S launched for quoting
  • 2026-05-06Q1 2026 revenue $223.4M (down 26% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $28.8M, FY2026 guidance reaffirmed
  • 2026-03-18Board expanded from 8 to 10 directors, adding Emily Cohen and Carolyne Murff
  • 2025-08-14Completed acquisition of APA Solar (~$129M 2024 revenue, ~$25M EBITDA)
  • 2025-02-25FY2025 revenue reported at ~$1.28-1.30B, up 40% YoY, with $103M goodwill impairment
  • 2024-12-31Domestic US shipments dropped over 35%; GameChange Solar overtook Array for #2 US spot
  • 2024-08-07Launched SkyLink grid-independent, PV-powered wireless tracker system
  • 2020-10-15IPO on NASDAQ raised $1.05B, with Oaktree and founder Corio holding 57% pre-offering
Revision history
25 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
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