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Space, defense and state enterprises · state-owned · Turkey

Aselsan

aselsan.com.tr ↗

Turkey's state-backed maker of missiles, radar, EW and air-defense systems for its own military and exports.

Hard to displace
Assessed 24 July 2026 · Evidence as of 24 July 2026
Strong structural protection; the business model survives ai pressure.
On the recordSince 24 July 2026 · Checkable from H1 2027 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: US decision on CAATSA sanctions relief and possible F-35 reintegration for Turkey
The call

Aselsan sits inside Turkey's mandated defense-procurement system, growing backlog and exports while foreign primes stay locked out of its home market.

Aselsan makes defense electronics and sensors for Turkey's military, and it wins most domestic contracts because Turkish law requires buying from Turkish suppliers. Competitors like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon are blocked by policy, not because they are slow; AI is just a tool Aselsan adds to its systems, not something that replaces the need for a trusted domestic supplier. The big wildcard is whether Turkey rejoins U.S. and NATO weapons programs fully in 2026, which could open export markets or create supply-chain complications, but either way the company's core domestic business is locked in by law.

Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI shows up as a feature inside Aselsan's radar, EW and missile systems, not as a rival that can replace a classified national supplier. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Lockheed Martin, RTX, Elbit Systems, Rafael, Hanwha Systems. These primes are barred from Turkey's domestic procurement by policy, but they still compete with Aselsan for export orders in Africa, Asia and NATO markets. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. Turkey requires its own military to buy domestic, and Aselsan is majority owned by the Armed Forces Foundation with decades of classified system integration.
What would change this call
US Congress final ruling on CAATSA lift and F-35 reintegration within 12 months. Would show whether Aselsan's sovereign-supplier role faces US reintegration pressure.
Aselsan's 2026 export contract total versus the $2B reported for 2025. Would show whether export growth momentum outside Turkey is continuing.
Any change to TSKGV majority ownership or SSB procurement mandate status. Would show whether Aselsan's protected domestic-supplier position is weakening.
Key numbers
  • FY2025 revenue TRY 180.4B, up 15% real YoY (2025-10-12)
  • Backlog hit $20.4B, up 46% YoY (2025-12-31)
  • Export contracts up 104% to over $2B (2025-12-31)
Named risks
  • Single-customer concentration on Turkish state defense budget and policy continuity. Severity: high
  • TRY high inflation and TAS 29 inflation-adjusted accounting complicating real margin trends. Severity: medium
  • CAATSA/F-35 reintegration uncertainty could affect Western component sourcing and export posture. Severity: medium
  • Conflicting headcount figures across sources signal limited disclosure transparency. Severity: low
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Baykargaining onBaykar exported $1.8B directly in 2024 vs Aselsan's $217M, per Turkey's SSB, 2025-02-04
Lockheed Martin, RTX, Elbit Systems, Rafael, Hanwha Systemslosing toStructurally barred from Turkey's classified domestic defense procurement by state policy
Havelsan and RoketsancontestingCo-contractors on $6.5B Steel Dome joint contract signed Nov 2025, overlapping domestic scope
Questions people ask
Is Aselsan profitable in 2026?
Aselsan reported record FY2025 revenue of TRY 180.4 billion, up about 15% in real terms year over year, as of October 12, 2025, and its dividend policy targets distributing at least 10% of net profit, indicating consistent profitability.
Who owns Aselsan?
Aselsan is majority owned by the Turkish Armed Forces Foundation (TSKGV), with the remainder publicly traded on Borsa Istanbul under ticker ASELS. Market cap was roughly TRY 1.65 trillion, about $38 to 40 billion, as of June 26, 2026.
Could AI replace Aselsan?
No, AI is a feature Aselsan integrates, not a threat to its core role. Its Steel Dome command layer HAKIM uses AI based decision support, and the GOKALP interceptor uses AI tracking, unveiled May 15, 2026, but hardware manufacturing and classified state integration remain Aselsan's moat.
Who is Aselsan's biggest competitor?
Domestically, Baykar exported $1.8 billion directly in 2024 versus Aselsan's $217 million in direct exports, per Turkey's SSB. Globally, Lockheed Martin, RTX, Elbit Systems, Rafael, and Hanwha Systems are structurally barred from Turkey's domestic defense procurement.
How big is Aselsan's order backlog going into 2026?
Aselsan's backlog reached $20.4 billion at end of 2025, up 46% year over year, driven by $9.6 billion in new orders, according to a report published April 7, 2026.
Will US CAATSA sanctions relief change Aselsan's business?
In July 2026 President Trump announced intent to lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey's SSB, imposed since December 2020, and potentially reopen F-35 sales, but this remains legally contested and requires US congressional review as of July 9, 2026.
Timeline
  • 2026-07-10Aselsan added EUR 1.47B ($1.68B) Steel Dome production expansion contract
  • 2026-07-09Erdogan announced additional $24B in Steel Dome funding at NATO Ankara summit
  • 2026-07Trump announced intent to lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey's SSB, legally contested
  • 2026-06-17Aselsan signed EUR 780M ($900M) Steel Dome contract
  • 2026-06-09CEO Akyol reported 272 export deals across 58 countries worth $2B+ in 2025
  • 2026-05-15Unveiled GOKALP autonomous drone interceptor at SAHA 2026
  • 2025-12Signed $410M electronic warfare deal with Poland
  • 2025-09Signed $1.9B Steel Dome deal with Turkey's SSB
  • 2025-08Steel Dome program achieved first deliveries
  • 2024-08Steel Dome national air defense program approved
Revision history
24 July 2026
First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
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