Is ASML profitable in 2026?

Yes. ASML posted €2.9 billion net income on €9.3 billion net sales in Q2 2026 with a 54.0% gross margin, and raised full-year 2026 guidance twice to €43-45 billion net sales as of July 15, 2026.

Could AI replace ASML?

No. ASML's EUV lithography machines are physics-bound, 180-ton capital equipment with no software substitute; AI is instead a demand tailwind, with ASML's raised 2026 guidance explicitly attributed to AI-chip demand as of July 2026.

Who is ASML's biggest competitor?

None credible near-term. ASML holds ~100% EUV share; rival Nikon's lithography share collapsed to single digits with an ~¥85 billion loss warning by March 29, 2026. China's SMEE is a distant threat targeting first chips only in 2028-2030.

Is ASML laying off workers?

No mass layoffs reported. ASML's official headcount was 44,175 as of December 31, 2025, up 0.34% year over year, though the company said it is streamlining its Technology and IT organizations per its Q4 2025 release.

ASML is publicly traded on Euronext Amsterdam and Nasdaq with no controlling shareholder. Intel bought a 15% stake for $4.1 billion in 2012, alongside co-investments from Samsung and TSMC, to help fund EUV development.

Is ASML exposed to China export controls?

Yes. China was ~33% of ASML's 2025 revenue but only 19% of Q1 2026 system sales after export curbs; ASML expects China at ~20% of full-year 2026 revenue, with the proposed US MATCH Act threatening roughly €5.6 billion in DUV sales.

Manufacturing companies · Netherlands

ASML Holding

asml.com ↗

Dutch maker of EUV lithography machines that print the chips inside every AI processor.

Hard to displace

Assessed 20 July 2026 · Evidence as of 20 July 2026

Strong structural protection; the business model survives ai pressure.

On the recordSince 20 July 2026 · Checkable from October 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q3 2026 earnings report, testing whether raised full-year guidance of 43 to 45 billion euros holds

The call

ASML sits upstream of the entire AI chip supply chain, selling the one machine no competitor can yet build, with the biggest near-term risk being export politics, not technology.

ASML builds the specialized machines that chip makers use to carve patterns onto silicon, and it controls over 80 percent of the market. It is very hard to copy because the physics and engineering are extremely complex, the equipment costs billions of dollars, and ASML has spent decades building up expertise that competitors like China's SMEE are still years away from matching. The biggest risk is not technology but politics: if the U.S. government restricts what ASML can sell to China, the company could lose billions in revenue, and if China's government successfully steals or quickly develops its own competing technology, ASML's dominance could shrink.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. AI demand is a tailwind here, not a predator. Nvidia and others need more advanced chips, which means more ASML machines, not fewer. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: SMEE (China state-backed lithography maker). China is racing to build a domestic EUV machine, but working prototypes aren't expected before 2028 to 2030, and none can export yet. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. ASML is the only company on earth that can build a working EUV machine, a physics and engineering problem 20 years and hundreds of suppliers deep.

What would change this call

Outcome of the U.S. MATCH Act vote on banning DUV sales to China. Would show whether roughly 5.6 billion euros of China revenue is at regulatory risk.
Resolution of the June 2026 allegation that EUV tech reached China. Would show whether export control breaches are undermining ASML's chokepoint position.
ASML Q3 2026 earnings release around October 2026. Would show whether raised full year guidance of 43 to 45 billion euros is holding.

Key numbers

FY2025 net sales: 32.7 billion euros, up 16% (2025-12-31)
Q2 2026 net income: 2.9 billion euros (2026-06-30)
EUV lithography market share: about 100% (2025)

Named risks

US MATCH Act could ban DUV sales to China, putting ~€5.6bn 2025 shipments at risk. Severity: high
Unverified June 2026 allegation of EUV tech diversion to China could escalate diplomatically. Severity: medium
Stock trades near all-time highs at ~49x estimated 2027 earnings, exposed to AI-capex disappointment. Severity: medium
TSMC delaying High-NA EUV mass production to ~2029 could slow ASML's High-NA revenue ramp. Severity: medium
China's SMEE domestic EUV prototype could erode long-term monopoly if it reaches production by 2028-2030. Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Nikon	losing to	Lithography share collapsed to single digits, ~¥85bn loss warning by 2026-03-29
Canon	losing to	Legacy DUV player with minimal share versus ASML's 83-84% overall lithography share, 2025-2026
SMEE (China)	contesting	Domestic EUV prototype reportedly targeting first working chips 2028-2030, per Reuters Dec 2025
Applied Materials/Lam Research/KLA	contesting	Adjacent deposition/etch/inspection makers bundled against ASML in fab tool sales, 2025-2026

Questions people ask

Is ASML profitable in 2026?: Yes. ASML posted €2.9 billion net income on €9.3 billion net sales in Q2 2026 with a 54.0% gross margin, and raised full-year 2026 guidance twice to €43-45 billion net sales as of July 15, 2026.
Could AI replace ASML?: No. ASML's EUV lithography machines are physics-bound, 180-ton capital equipment with no software substitute; AI is instead a demand tailwind, with ASML's raised 2026 guidance explicitly attributed to AI-chip demand as of July 2026.
Who is ASML's biggest competitor?: None credible near-term. ASML holds ~100% EUV share; rival Nikon's lithography share collapsed to single digits with an ~¥85 billion loss warning by March 29, 2026. China's SMEE is a distant threat targeting first chips only in 2028-2030.
Is ASML laying off workers?: No mass layoffs reported. ASML's official headcount was 44,175 as of December 31, 2025, up 0.34% year over year, though the company said it is streamlining its Technology and IT organizations per its Q4 2025 release.
Who owns ASML?: ASML is publicly traded on Euronext Amsterdam and Nasdaq with no controlling shareholder. Intel bought a 15% stake for $4.1 billion in 2012, alongside co-investments from Samsung and TSMC, to help fund EUV development.
Is ASML exposed to China export controls?: Yes. China was ~33% of ASML's 2025 revenue but only 19% of Q1 2026 system sales after export curbs; ASML expects China at ~20% of full-year 2026 revenue, with the proposed US MATCH Act threatening roughly €5.6 billion in DUV sales.

Timeline

2026-07-15Q2 2026 results: €9.3bn sales, raised FY guidance to €43-45bn; Intel ships Panther Lake on High-NA EUV
2026-06-23ASML denies allegation that EUV technology reached China in violation of export controls
2026-06TSMC says it will not deploy High-NA EUV in mass production before 2029
2026-03-29Nikon lithography share collapses to single digits with ~¥85bn loss warning
2026-02High-NA EUV tools pass 500,000 wafers processed at ~80% uptime
2026-01-28FY2025 results: €32.7bn net sales, €9.6bn net income; new €12bn buyback announced
2025-12Reuters reports China's SMEE targeting first domestic EUV chips 2028-2030
2025-09-09ASML invests €1.3bn for ~11% stake in Mistral AI, leading €1.7bn Series C

Revision history

20 July 2026

First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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