Is BAIC Group profitable in 2026?

BAIC Motor, the listed arm of BAIC Group, saw net profit collapse 87.2% to RMB 123 million in FY2025 (ended Dec 31, 2025), and it terminated its planned A-share listing in March 2026 citing market conditions, per HKEX-linked filings.

Could AI or Huawei replace BAIC's own technology?

BAIC's growth EV brand Stelato runs Huawei's HarmonyOS cockpit and ADS software, licensed non-exclusively to four rival brands (Aito, Luxeed, Maextro, Shangjie) as of November 2025, meaning BAIC's key differentiation is rented, not owned.

BAIC Group is a wholly state-owned enterprise controlled by the Beijing Municipal Government, founded in 1958. Its listed passenger-vehicle subsidiary, BAIC Motor (1958.HK), was about 46.9% owned by BAIC Group as of August 26, 2025.

Is BYD BAIC Group's biggest competitor?

Yes in NEVs: BYD led China's NEV retail market with 22.3% share in June 2026 (Geely second at 10.7%), while BAIC as a standalone brand did not appear in China's top-10 NEV sales rankings for that period, per CnEVPost data.

Does BAIC Group still hold a stake in Mercedes-Benz?

BAIC Group held a 9.98% stake in Mercedes-Benz Group (then Daimler) as of December 2021, making it the automaker's largest shareholder at that time, per Wikipedia's sourced BAIC Group profile.

What is Stelato and does BAIC fully own it?

Stelato is a joint EV brand between BAIC and Huawei, launching its first model (S9) in August 2024; Huawei pledged RMB 20 billion ($2.96B) over three years to the partnership in September 2025, but the underlying ADS software is Huawei's and shared with four other automakers.

Automotive companies · state-owned · China

BAIC Group

baicgroup.com.cn ↗

Beijing state-owned automaker running Mercedes-Benz and Hyundai joint ventures plus own EV brands.

Losing its protection

Assessed 25 July 2026 · Evidence as of 25 July 2026

The structural protection is eroding.

On the recordSince 25 July 2026 · Checkable from Q3 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Stelato G9 launch and next BAIC Motor half-year results

The call

BAIC's Mercedes and Hyundai joint ventures keep the group alive, but its main growth car runs on software Huawei also sells to four rival brands.

BAIC Group makes cars in China through long-standing partnerships with Mercedes-Benz and Hyundai, and sells vehicles worldwide. The company's profits dropped dramatically in 2025, and its newer electric cars use Huawei software that Huawei also licenses to four other carmakers, meaning BAIC cannot control this technology or prevent competitors from using it. The key question is whether BAIC can develop its own self-driving software called Arcfox Yuanjing to stand on its own, or whether it will keep renting Huawei's technology while rivals like BYD and others grab more market share.

Why

AI pressure: Huawei HarmonyOS/ADS software stack. BAIC's growth car Stelato runs on Huawei tech also licensed to Aito, Luxeed, and Maextro, so BAIC doesn't own its own edge. Could AI do the core job? Yes, likely.

Bigger players: BYD, Geely, Xiaomi, Leapmotor. BAIC fell out of China's top 10 NEV brands in 2025 while BYD alone holds over 22% of the NEV market. Could a giant copy it? Probably.

What protects it. Decades-locked joint venture rights with Mercedes-Benz and Hyundai, plus Beijing municipal ownership, give BAIC cash flow and survival even as its own EV brands struggle.

What would change this call

BAIC Motor's H1 2026 earnings report. Shows whether the 87% profit collapse is bottoming out or worsening.
Stelato G9 launch and sales in Q3 2026. Tests if Huawei-licensed tech converts to real margin, not just volume.
Arcfox brand's China NEV sales ranking by end of 2026. Shows if BAIC regains top-10 status or stays sidelined by BYD/Geely/Xiaomi.

Key numbers

BAIC Motor net profit fell 87.2% to RMB 123 million (2025-12-31)
Beijing Benz JV carrying value dropped from EUR2.44B to EUR2.09B (2025-12-31)
Arcfox Beta S3 drew over 30,000 pre-orders since April 2026 (2026-05-23)

Named risks

BAIC Motor net profit collapsed 87.2% in FY2025 amid China EV price war. Severity: high
Core growth brand Stelato depends on Huawei-owned software shared with 4 rival OEMs. Severity: high
BAIC absent from China's top-10 NEV brand sales rankings as of June 2026. Severity: high
Beijing Benz JV earnings contribution declining per Mercedes-Benz 2025 statements. Severity: medium
Terminated A-share listing plan (March 2026) leaves capital-raising path unclear. Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
BYD	losing to	BYD held 22.3% China NEV retail share vs BAIC absent from top-10, June 2026
Geely	losing to	Geely ranked second with 10.7% NEV share, June 2026, while BAIC unranked
Huawei HIMA brands (Aito, Luxeed, Maextro, Shangjie)	contesting	Stelato shares Huawei's ADS/HarmonyOS stack with four rival brands as of Nov 2025
Chery, SAIC, Changan, GWM	losing to	BAIC ranked 7th among Chinese automakers in 2025 exports at 308,000 units
Xiaomi, Leapmotor	gaining on	Cited as rivals actively shipping and taking NEV share from BAIC as of mid-2026

Questions people ask

Is BAIC Group profitable in 2026?: BAIC Motor, the listed arm of BAIC Group, saw net profit collapse 87.2% to RMB 123 million in FY2025 (ended Dec 31, 2025), and it terminated its planned A-share listing in March 2026 citing market conditions, per HKEX-linked filings.
Could AI or Huawei replace BAIC's own technology?: BAIC's growth EV brand Stelato runs Huawei's HarmonyOS cockpit and ADS software, licensed non-exclusively to four rival brands (Aito, Luxeed, Maextro, Shangjie) as of November 2025, meaning BAIC's key differentiation is rented, not owned.
Who owns BAIC Group?: BAIC Group is a wholly state-owned enterprise controlled by the Beijing Municipal Government, founded in 1958. Its listed passenger-vehicle subsidiary, BAIC Motor (1958.HK), was about 46.9% owned by BAIC Group as of August 26, 2025.
Is BYD BAIC Group's biggest competitor?: Yes in NEVs: BYD led China's NEV retail market with 22.3% share in June 2026 (Geely second at 10.7%), while BAIC as a standalone brand did not appear in China's top-10 NEV sales rankings for that period, per CnEVPost data.
Does BAIC Group still hold a stake in Mercedes-Benz?: BAIC Group held a 9.98% stake in Mercedes-Benz Group (then Daimler) as of December 2021, making it the automaker's largest shareholder at that time, per Wikipedia's sourced BAIC Group profile.
What is Stelato and does BAIC fully own it?: Stelato is a joint EV brand between BAIC and Huawei, launching its first model (S9) in August 2024; Huawei pledged RMB 20 billion ($2.96B) over three years to the partnership in September 2025, but the underlying ADS software is Huawei's and shared with four other automakers.

Timeline

2026-07-24Arcfox reportedly expanding into Malaysia mid-2026
2026-06-15Stelato G9 off-road SUV teased with Huawei ADS 5.0, Q3 2026 launch targeted
2026-05-22Arcfox Beta S3 launches with CATL battery swap, 30,000+ preorders since April 24, 2026
2026-03-25BAIC Motor FY2025 net profit collapses 87.2% to RMB 123M; A-share listing plan terminated
2026-03-23Stelato launches updated S9 and S9T EVs
2026-03-05Beijing Benz JV carrying value falls from EUR2,443M to EUR2,086M for 2025
2026-03-02Arcfox Alpha S5 starts presales with EREV options and MIIT L3 driving permit
2025-09Huawei and BAIC pledge RMB 20 billion ($2.96B) over three years for Stelato
2025-08-26BAIC Motor renews connected-transaction framework agreements with BAIC Group through 2028
2024-08Stelato S9, first Huawei-BAIC joint model, launches with HarmonyOS and ADS 3.0

Revision history

25 July 2026

First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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