WillItSurvive
United States · United States

Carta

Carta runs cap-table and equity management software for private startups and VC funds.

Defensible for now
Assessed 29 July 2026 · Evidence as of 29 July 2026
Real protection, with named pressure against it.
On the recordSince 29 July 2026 · Checkable from August 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: AngelList Stack enters maintenance mode, potentially freeing customers to move to Pulley or Carta
The call

Carta still sits at the center of startup equity paperwork, but its valuation has been cut by billions and Pulley keeps picking off logos like Linear.

Carta runs the main record-keeping system that private companies, their investors, and lawyers use to track who owns what in stock deals. It is hard to replace because switching to a different system means moving years of data and convincing everyone involved (venture firms, law firms, accountants) to use the new system instead, which is painful and risky. However, in 2024 Carta secretly used customer data to push its own secondaries business, which broke trust with its users. The company's value dropped 75% since 2021 and has not raised new money since then, so even though the underlying business is solid, the financial picture is uncertain. The real risk is whether a rival like Pulley can slowly steal away customers by promising better privacy, or whether Carta has another data-governance failure that makes customers finally leave.

Why
01
AI pressure: Hanover Park and other AI-native fund-admin startups. New AI-native fund-admin tools are emerging, but Carta added Claude plugins in 2026, pulling AI into its own workflow instead. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Fidelity Private Shares. Fidelity runs a live competing cap-table product, though Carta answered by partnering with Morgan Stanley rather than fighting it directly. Could a giant copy it? Probably.
03
What protects it. 409A valuation liability, VC/law-firm network effects, and switching costs from 40,000+ companies tied to one system of record.
What would change this call
Pulley publicly reports 2+ consecutive quarters of net-new Series A cap-table logo wins over Carta. Would show Carta losing share at the critical early-stage entry point.
A second customer-data misuse or governance breach at Carta surfaces after the 2024 Linear incident. Would confirm a repeat trust failure that erodes its liability-based lock-in.
Carta closes a new primary funding round or discloses a valuation mark above $3.5B. Would show investor confidence recovering after the 2021-2024 markdown.
Key numbers
  • Carta manages cap tables for about 40,000 startups (2024)
  • Carta ARR reported at $373M by CEO Henry Ward (Jan 2024)
  • Valuation fell from $7.4B (2021) to $2B-$4B range (June 2024)
Named risks
  • No confirmed new funding round since 2021, leaving valuation between under $2B and $4B disputed. Severity: high
  • Repeat of January 2024 data-misuse scandal type trust breach given expanding AI data-handling scope. Severity: high
  • Multiple discrimination-related lawsuit settlements since 2023 including 2025 Rogers case. Severity: medium
  • Pulley and other rivals peeling name-brand cap-table logos post-scandal. Severity: medium
  • Regulatory changes to Form PF or the INVEST Act could reshape Carta's addressable market. Severity: low
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Pulleygaining onReportedly won Linear as a customer following Carta's January 2024 data-misuse scandal
AngelList Stacklosing toStack stopped onboarding new customers around August 2026, migrating users to Pulley and Carta rivals per WaveUp
Morgan Stanley at Work / ShareworkscontestingCarta partnered rather than competed, announcing exclusive pre-IPO tie-up in November 2024
Hanover ParkcontestingAI-native fund admin startup founded 2024, raised a Series A, positioned as disruptive alternative per Carta's own comparison page, June 2026
Questions people ask
Is Carta profitable in 2026?
No confirmed profitability. Carta reported roughly $380M revenue against a $65M loss in 2023, per TechCrunch, June 6, 2024. No independently verified profit figures for 2025 or 2026 have surfaced; Latka's unconfirmed $500M ARR estimate for December 2025 does not address profitability.
What is Carta's valuation now, in 2026?
Uncertain and disputed. Carta's 2021 Series G valued it at $7.4B, but TechCrunch reported a secondary sale in June 2024 targeting only $2B to $4B, roughly a $6.5B cut. Wikipedia cites a drop below $2B. No new primary round has been confirmed since 2021.
Did Carta have a data misuse scandal?
Yes. In January 2024, a Carta employee used confidential cap-table data from customer Linear to solicit a secondary sale without consent, per TechCrunch, January 7, 2024. Carta shut its CartaX secondary trading business within days and CEO Henry Ward publicly apologized.
Who is Carta's biggest competitor?
Pulley is the most-cited direct rival, reportedly gaining customers including Linear after Carta's 2024 scandal. AngelList's Stack product went into maintenance mode around August 2026, per WaveUp, pushing migrating startups toward Pulley or Morgan Stanley Workplace Solutions instead of Carta.
Could AI replace Carta's cap table business?
Unlikely soon. Carta's moat is its audited, regulator-facing system of record covering an Axios-reported 40,000 startups as of January 2024, plus network effects among VCs and law firms. Instead of being replaced, Carta launched Claude plugins for its own data in April 2026.
How many companies use Carta?
Carta's own site claims over 50,000 companies in 160-plus countries as of June 2026 tracking over $4.5T in equity value. Independent reporting from Axios in January 2024 put the figure at approximately 40,000 startups using Carta for cap table management.
Timeline
  • 2026-06Carta claims 50,000-plus companies and $4.5T-plus equity tracked on its About page (vendor claim)
  • 2026-05Carta acquires Avantia Law, rebrands it Carta Law for AI-native legal services
  • 2026-04Carta launches Claude plugins for Cap Table, Investors, and CRM data
  • 2026-03Carta adds a CRM module to its ERP-for-private-capital platform
  • 2025-10Carta expands agentic AI insight tools for fund administration
  • 2024-11Carta announces exclusive partnership with Morgan Stanley at Work for pre-IPO equity management
  • 2024-10Carta acquires Tactyc, a VC fund forecasting tool
  • 2024-08Fintech firm Public acquires brokerage accounts from Carta's former Liquidity business
  • 2024-06TechCrunch reports secondary sale would cut Carta valuation by roughly $6.5B to $2B to $4B
  • 2024-01Carta employee data misuse scandal involving customer Linear; CartaX secondary trading shut down
Revision history
29 July 2026
First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources