WillItSurvive
Gaming companies · Iceland

CCP Games

Icelandic studio behind EVE Online, now independent as Fenris Creations after leaving Pearl Abyss.

Losing its protection
Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from November 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: EVE Vanguard full Alpha commercial launch
The call

A beloved, irreplaceable game now sits inside a newly independent studio funding three unproven bets on flat revenue and no parent backstop.

Fenris Creations runs EVE Online, a 20-year-old space game where thousands of players share one world and drive their own economy, making it genuinely hard to copy or replace with a fresh rival game or AI chatbot. The company just became independent with less money than it needs, is trying to launch three brand-new games at once on flat yearly revenue, and has no parent company to bail it out if things go wrong. The real test is whether EVE Vanguard, the first of these new games, can attract enough paying players starting late 2026 to prove the company can handle three bets at once, or whether money runs short and forces painful cuts.

Why
01
AI pressure: Google DeepMind. DeepMind holds a minority stake and uses EVE Online for AI research, a partner for now but its planning models could later power rival games. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: None apparent. No major platform or publisher is currently targeting EVE Online's niche persistent-universe MMO space. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. Twenty plus years of a single persistent player-driven economy that no competitor or AI can replicate quickly.
What would change this call
EVE Vanguard's Alpha launch reception in November 2026. Shows whether Fenris can turn a new title into paying players without parent funding.
EVE Online average concurrent players falling below 2,500 on Steam Charts. Would confirm the core game's player base is eroding, not just flat.
Any Fenris Creations layoff announcement within 12 months of the May 2026 buyout. Would show capital strain from funding three spinoffs on $60M annual revenue.
Key numbers
  • EVE Online revenue flat near $60M (2024)
  • Buyout price ~$120M, half the 2018 sale price (2026-05-01)
  • Concurrent players 3,000 to 4,600 average (2025-11-09)
Named risks
  • Funding three unproven spinoffs (Vanguard, Frontier, Galaxy Conquest) on flat $60M revenue without parent backstop. Severity: high
  • Reportedly unprofitable under Pearl Abyss in 2024-2025 just before going independent. Severity: high
  • EVE Frontier blockchain token mechanics face community backlash and regulatory ambiguity. Severity: medium
  • Core EVE Online concurrent player base is small (~3,000-4,600) versus faster-growing genre rivals. Severity: medium
  • Scope of Google DeepMind involvement beyond research remains vague, could shift player sentiment. Severity: low
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Star Citizen (Cloud Imperium Games)gaining on~42,000 concurrent players vs EVE's ~4,000 as of July 11, 2026
Escape from Tarkov (Battlestate Games)contestingEVE Vanguard entering extraction-shooter genre with alpha in July 2026
No Man's Sky / Elite DangerouscontestingAdjacent space-exploration titles competing for same audience attention, 2025
Star Atlas / Space NationcontestingNiche Web3 space-game rivals to EVE Frontier's blockchain model
Pearl Abyss (former parent, Black Desert)losing toSold CCP back at less than half 2018 price on May 1, 2026 after reported losses
Questions people ask
Is CCP Games profitable in 2026?
CCP was reportedly losing money for Pearl Abyss in 2024 to 2025, driven by heavy spend on EVE Frontier and EVE Vanguard, according to a May 1, 2026 report on the management buyout. No public profitability figures exist yet for newly independent Fenris Creations.
Who owns CCP Games now?
As of May 1, 2026, Pearl Abyss sold CCP Games back to CEO Hilmar Veigar Petursson and management for about 120 million dollars, structured as 100 million cash plus 20 million in EVE Frontier token rights. The company rebranded to Fenris Creations on May 6, 2026.
Could AI replace CCP Games or EVE Online?
Unlikely for the core game: Google DeepMind took a minority stake in May 2026 to license EVE Online's 20-plus year player data for AI research rather than build a rival simulation, treating it as irreplaceable training data. Support and tutorial functions, via the Aura chatbot, are more exposed.
Who is CCP Games' biggest competitor?
Star Citizen is the closest rival in scope, drawing about 42,000 concurrent players versus EVE Online's roughly 4,000 as of July 11, 2026, though the two serve different audiences and EVE's niche has stayed stable rather than eroding.
Has CCP Games had layoffs?
CCP laid off 13 employees in a March 7, 2023 restructuring across studios. Active job postings fell 42.9% to just 11 in 2025 per Revelio Labs data as of December 2025, signaling a hiring slowdown ahead of the 2026 ownership change.
What is EVE Vanguard and when does it launch?
EVE Vanguard is Fenris Creations' extraction-shooter spinoff set in the EVE universe. Its Operation Avalon alpha playtest ran July 7 to 20, 2026 on Steam, with a full Alpha release targeted for November 2026, the key near-term commercial test.
Timeline
  • 2026-07-11Star Citizen shows ~42,000 concurrent players vs EVE Online's ~4,000
  • 2026-07-07EVE Vanguard Operation Avalon alpha playtest begins on Steam, runs to July 20
  • 2026-05-15Fenris Creations announces EVE Vanguard alpha, full Alpha targeted November 2026
  • 2026-05-06CCP Games rebrands as Fenris Creations, announces Google DeepMind partnership
  • 2026-05-01Pearl Abyss sells CCP back to CEO and management for ~$120M
  • 2025-10-08EVE Frontier migrates to Sui Layer-1 blockchain
  • 2025-06-19Reports emerge Pearl Abyss put CCP Games and EVE Online up for sale
  • 2023-03-07CCP Games lays off 13 employees in cross-studio restructuring
  • 2018-09Pearl Abyss acquires CCP Games for ~$225M cash plus up to $200M earnouts
  • 2003-05EVE Online launches
Revision history
23 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources