Certain Affinity
Austin studio that co-develops multiplayer content for Halo, Call of Duty, and other AAA shooters.
On the record
Checkpoint: Window to announce a new AAA anchor contract replacing Project Ekur
The call
Certain Affinity has real relationships and real skills, but it rents seats to publishers who can walk away, and its own parent is building the tools that could replace those seats.
Certain Affinity makes games alongside big publishers like Microsoft and Activision Blizzard, handling work like testing, translation, and level design. The company has real relationships and expertise built over two decades, but those connections are not permanent: when Microsoft canceled a major Halo project in mid-2026, Certain Affinity lost the work overnight and cut its staff by more than half. The bigger threat is artificial intelligence getting better at the exact tasks the studio gets paid for, test tasks, like finding bugs and translating games into other languages, which means fewer people will be needed to do this work. What matters next is whether Certain Affinity can land a new major deal with a big publisher in the next half-year, because without steady contract work, a studio with no independent game franchise cannot survive.
Why
01
AI pressure: Keywords Studios internal AI tooling (Project KARA, Center of Excellence). Parent company Keywords is building AI tools to automate QA, localization, and asset work, the same billable-seat tasks Certain Affinity sells by the hour. Could AI do the core job? Yes, likely.
02
Bigger players: Microsoft (Halo Studios) and Activision Blizzard (Call of Duty). These are clients, not rivals, but they control whether contracts exist at all; Microsoft canceled Project Ekur in July 2026. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.
03
What protects it. Two decades of franchise-specific pipeline knowledge on Halo and Call of Duty that publishers trust for co-development.
What would change this call
Certain Affinity announces a new AAA contract replacing Project Ekur by Q1 2027. Would show demand for its co-dev services has recovered rather than shrunk.
Keywords Studios announces consolidation of overlapping studios (Sperasoft, D3T, Snowed In, Certain Affinity). Would show PE ownership is forcing cost cuts across redundant co-dev capacity.
Project Loro ships, gets acquired by a publisher, or receives a release date. Would show Certain Affinity gaining an owned-IP outcome instead of only renting billable seats.
Keywords Studios announces consolidation of overlapping studios (Sperasoft, D3T, Snowed In, Certain Affinity). Would show PE ownership is forcing cost cuts across redundant co-dev capacity.
Project Loro ships, gets acquired by a publisher, or receives a release date. Would show Certain Affinity gaining an owned-IP outcome instead of only renting billable seats.
Key numbers
- Project Ekur canceled July 2026
- Headcount down from 250+ to 180-220
- First layoffs ever: 25 staff cut
Named risks
- Client concentration: Microsoft and Activision control contract existence and can insource anytime.
- AI-driven productivity gains in QA, localization, and design compress billable-seat demand.
- PE parent (EQT/CPP/Temasek via Keywords) may consolidate overlapping sister co-dev studios.
- Sector-wide co-development funding contraction already caused 2024 layoffs and could recur.
- Original IP bets (Project Loro) remain unannounced/unpublished with no confirmed publisher or release date.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Microsoft (Halo Studios) | losing to | Canceled Project Ekur, Certain Affinity's major Halo engagement, by 2026-07-14 |
| Activision Blizzard (Call of Duty) | contesting | Remains a key co-dev client but can insource work at will, no long-term guarantee |
| Sperasoft, D3T, Snowed In Studios (sister Keywords studios) | contesting | Overlapping co-dev capacity under same PE parent, consolidation risk flagged 2026 |
| Virtuos | losing to | Larger-scale multi-title co-dev/porting studio competing for same publisher budgets |
Questions people ask
- Is Certain Affinity profitable?
- No public figures exist; Certain Affinity is private and, since October 18, 2024, consolidated into Keywords Studios' financials with no standalone P&L disclosed. Third-party revenue estimates exist but are unverified aggregator figures, not company-reported numbers.
- Who owns Certain Affinity?
- Keywords Studios acquired Certain Affinity on October 18, 2024 for an undisclosed sum. Keywords itself was taken private on October 23-24, 2024 by EQT, CPP Investments (~$515M for 24.5%), and Temasek's Rosa Investments at roughly £2.2B valuation, delisting from the London Stock Exchange.
- Has Certain Affinity had layoffs?
- Yes. In March 2024 Certain Affinity laid off 25 US-based staff, about 10% of its workforce, its first layoffs in over 17 years, citing an industry-wide slowdown in co-development funding, per Video Games Chronicle reporting dated 2024-03-28.
- Could AI replace Certain Affinity's work?
- Its billable-seat co-dev model (design, QA, localization) overlaps heavily with tasks 73-96% of studios already automate per 2026 surveys. Parent Keywords Studios runs an internal AI Center of Excellence and 'Project KARA' aimed at exactly these functions, per company statements from 2025-02-24.
- Is Certain Affinity losing business to its clients?
- Yes. Halo Studios (Microsoft) canceled Project Ekur, a big-team-battle Halo project Certain Affinity had developed since September 2023, as of July 13-14, 2026, showing its publisher clients can insource or kill engagements unilaterally.
- What is Certain Affinity's biggest competitor?
- Its real threat isn't a rival studio but its own clients: Microsoft's Halo Studios and Activision Blizzard, who control whether co-development contracts exist at all, as proven by the July 2026 cancellation of Project Ekur. Sister Keywords studios like Sperasoft and D3T also compete for the same publisher budgets.
Timeline
- 2026-07-14Halo Studios cancels Project Ekur, Certain Affinity's major Halo multiplayer engagement
- 2026-06-06Job postings for Senior AI Gameplay Designer/Programmer roles signal internal AI investment
- 2026-04-10Wharton study finds AI reorganization cuts game dev cycle times from months to weeks
- 2024-11-04EQT, CPP Investments, and Temasek complete take-private of Keywords Studios, ~$2.8B valuation
- 2024-10-18Keywords Studios acquires Certain Affinity, ~180 US/Canada staff transferred
- 2024-03-28Certain Affinity lays off 25 staff (~10%), first cuts in 17-year history, cites weak demand
- 2023-09Project Ekur (Halo big-team-battle prototype) greenlit by Microsoft's Halo Studios
- 2017Leyou Technologies invests $10M in Certain Affinity for original-IP development
- 2006-08-25Certain Affinity founded by Max Hoberman and ex-Bungie/Microsoft/Red Storm/EA veterans
Revision history
23 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Certain Affinity (2026-06-14)
- Keywords Studios to acquire US-based studio Certain Affinity (2024-10-18)
- CPP Investments, Alongside EQT and Temasek, Completes Acquisition of Keywords Studios (2024-11-04)
- Certain Affinity Company Profile
- Certain Affinity (2026-01-13)
- Certain Affinity, Halo: Infinite Co-Developer, Says It's Struggling to Find New Work, Announces Layoffs (2024-03-28)
- Halo and COD support studio Certain Affinity lays off 25 staff (2024-03-28)
- New sci-fi RPG from Mass Effect veteran recruits Halo support studio (2024-02-12)
- Project Loro (2026-07-21)
- Halo, Hogwarts Legacy Co-developer Certain Affinity Becomes the Latest Keywords Studios Acquisition (2024-10-18)
- Halo Studios Cancels Project Ekur, Elites Shelved Again (2026-07-14)
- Certain Affinity - Overview, News & Similar companies (2026-06-06)