WillItSurvive

CI Games

Polish game publisher betting its future on one action-RPG sequel.

Losing its protection
Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from Q1 2027 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Lords of the Fallen II launch window
The call

CI Games has real IP and a game that paid for itself, but the company's next few years hinge on one sequel landing well in a genre full of bigger rivals.

CI Games makes video games, most notably the Sniper Ghost Warrior and Lords of the Fallen series. The company is in trouble because it is trying to compete in the tough fantasy action-game market where FromSoftware (Elden Ring), CD Projekt, and Techland have already proven they can make hits, and nothing stops them from making more. The company's money is running out, sales are falling, and almost everything depends on whether Lords of the Fallen II becomes a bestseller when it comes out in early 2027. If that game flops or arrives late, CI Games will likely run out of cash and have very few options left.

Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI tools may speed up asset creation but the real risk here is a single game launch, not an AI product eating the business. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.
02
Bigger players: FromSoftware, CD Projekt, Techland. These studios ship in the same action-RPG genre with far bigger teams and budgets, and can outspend or out-market Lords of the Fallen II easily. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.
03
What protects it. Owns the Lords of the Fallen and Sniper Ghost Warrior IP outright, plus a first game that already returned its investment and still drives most revenue.
What would change this call
Lords of the Fallen II launch reviews and Metacritic score in Q1 2027. Shows whether CI Games can still compete for genre attention against bigger studios.
Any further delay of Lords of the Fallen II beyond Q1 2027. Would signal execution weakness while rivals ship on schedule.
Another dilutive capital raise or bank debt draw before Q1 2027 launch. Would show balance sheet stress and reliance on external funding to survive to launch.
Key numbers
  • 9M 2025 revenue PLN 51.9m, down from PLN 68.9m (2025-09-30)
  • Lords of the Fallen (2023) passed 2.5M units sold (2026-03-31)
  • Market cap about PLN 518.6m (~$130M) (2026-07-22)
Named risks
  • Revenue decline, PLN 51.9m nine-month 2025 vs PLN 68.9m prior year. Severity: high
  • Single-title dependence, Lords of the Fallen 2023 was 63% of Q1 2026 revenue. Severity: high
  • Lords of the Fallen II already delayed once, to Q1 2027, into a hit-driven genre. Severity: high
  • Repeated dilutive capital raises, Series J late 2024 and Series M mid 2026. Severity: medium
  • FX exposure erasing operating gains, PLN 1.5m net loss in Q1 2026 despite operating profit. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
FromSoftwarecontestingElden Ring dominates the Soulslike genre CI Games enters with LOTF II, Q1 2027
CD Projektlosing to1,200+ staff, far larger scale, dominant Polish games company as of 2026
Techlandlosing toDying Light franchise dominant in same action genre in Poland
Bloober TeamcontestingTencent-backed since 2021 (~22% stake), Silent Hill 2 remake success in 2024
Questions people ask
Is CI Games profitable in 2026?
Mixed. In Q1 2026 (ended March 31) CI Games posted operating profit of PLN 1.7 million, up from a loss a year earlier, but still recorded a net loss of PLN 1.5 million driven mainly by FX losses, per its own Q1 2026 results.
When is Lords of the Fallen II coming out?
CI Games' Lords of the Fallen II was pushed from Q3/Q4 2026 to Q1 2027, reportedly to avoid clashing with Grand Theft Auto VI, according to reporting dated June 25, 2026.
Is CI Games in financial trouble?
Revenue is shrinking, nine-month 2025 net revenue fell to PLN 51.9 million from PLN 68.9 million a year earlier, and the company completed a dilutive Series M share offering plus Santander bank credit agreements in late 2025 and mid 2026 to bridge to its next release.
Who are CI Games' biggest competitors?
In the Soulslike action-RPG space CI Games' Lords of the Fallen II will compete with FromSoftware's Elden Ring; domestically it sits behind much larger Polish rivals CD Projekt (1,200+ staff) and Techland, whose Dying Light franchise dominates the same genre.
Could AI replace a company like CI Games?
Not directly. CI Games owns established IP, Sniper Ghost Warrior and Lords of the Fallen, with multi-million-unit installed bases and console/platform relationships that AI tools cannot replicate; AI is used industry-wide as a production-cost lever in game pipelines, not a substitute for publishing infrastructure.
Who owns CI Games?
CI Games SE trades on the Warsaw Stock Exchange under ticker CIG with no controlling parent; free float has historically been around 51%. The company completed a Series M share offering registered and admitted to WSE trading in May-June 2026.
Timeline
  • 2026-06-30Series M shares registered and admitted to WSE trading
  • 2026-06-25Lords of the Fallen II release delayed from Q3/Q4 2026 to Q1 2027
  • 2026-06Nintendo Switch 2 version of Lords of the Fallen II confirmed at Nintendo Direct
  • 2026-05-19Separation Agreement with Epic Games disclosed, ending PC exclusivity
  • 2026-04-14Epic Games PC exclusivity deal for Lords of the Fallen II terminated
  • 2026-03-31Q1 2026 results: PLN 13.6m revenue, PLN 1.7m operating profit, PLN 1.5m net loss
  • 2025-12-16Credit agreements with Santander Bank Polska signed
  • 2025-09-30Nine-month 2025 net revenue reported at PLN 51.9m, down from PLN 68.9m
  • 2024-06Binding term sheet signed with Epic Games for exclusive PC distribution of LOTF II
  • 2024-05Roughly 30 additional layoffs at CI Games studios
  • 2024-0110% layoff at Hexworks and Underdog Entertainment studios
Revision history
23 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources